国际服务贸易外文翻译文献
国际服务贸易外文文献翻译
国际服务贸易外文翻译文献(含：英文原文及中文译文)文献出处：《World Development》，2015，12（1）：35-44.英文原文The research of international service trade and economic growth theoryChakraborty Kavin1 IntroductionThe study of the relation between international trade and economic growth is one of the most active issues. Since 1980s, the world has been in transition from national economy orientating towards natural resources and manufacturing industry to global and regional economy orientating towards information resources and service industry. After the signature of GA TS in1994, the institutional arrangements on liberalizing service trade result in a world-wide involvement division and exchanges of service trade, and it is undoubtedly that the positive interaction between service trade and investment leads to economic growth. But the theoretical research on service trade lags behind practice.Is it a statistic phenomenon or a universal rule of economic growth? To approach the above two issues from theoretical and empirical perspective is of great value to policy-making.For the proposition of that "International service trade will drive economic growth". Theoretical analysis shows that although service tradeis not a direct interpretative variable to economic growth, it can effect economic growth indirectly through other growing factors and technology upgrade, but the ways and mechanisms are different in different stages. In a certain stage of economic development, service trade (including investment) will have static and dynamic effect on factors supply and technology upgrade in one county, which will lead to the domestic alteration of resources condition structure. It is the enterprises that select industry structure, technology structure and trade structure according to dynamic alteration way of comparative technology structure and trade structure, which will ultimately promote evolution of economic growth gradually. So far as operational mechanism of service trade and investment is concerned, service trade affects factors supply in one country by physical capital accumulating effect, human capital effect, technology upgrade effect, institutional transition effect, employment effect and externality of technology, then influences the upgrade of industrial structure, the upgrade of technological structure and the transition of mode of economic growth. It is obvious that dynamic effect is greater than static effect; that external effect is playing more important role than internal effect; and that technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment in service industry is greater than that of service trade in a narrow sense (including across-border supply, consumption abroad and movement of natural person).For the research of mechanism about how service trade drive economic growth. Firstly, the paper verifies the causality between service trade and economic growths concerning different economic bodies and the representative countries. The results show that there are causalities between international service trade and economic growth in the whole world, in the developed countries, in the US and in china. In the developing countries, service trade is the Granger cause of economic growth; In the whole world and the developing countries, economic growth is the Granger cause of service trade; In the US, service export is the Granger cause of economic growth, and economic growth is the Granger cause of service import. On this basis, it is concluded that the opening of service industry will benefit economic growth in one country. Secondly, in order to explore on how the service trade and investment act on economic growth, empirical studies are employed to explain the case of US and that of China. The results show that the routes by which service trade affects economic growth in the US can be rowed as follows from more significant to less: employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect, technology effect, institution effect. The results of empirical analysis of China can be summarized that: the routes by which service export affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: employment effect, physical capital effect, institution effect, human capital effect, technology effect; the routs by which service import affectseconomic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, institution effect, employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect; the routes by which FDI in service affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, human capital effect, institution effect, employment effect, physical capital effect. Moreover, the effect of FDI in service is stronger than service import, and the effect of service import is stronger than service export.According to the empirical test in this paper, the conclusion can be drawn as follows: service trade in a narrow sense will have static and dynamic effects on factor supply in one country through import and export of service, FDI in service industry is one of the most important cross-border transactions and is another important channel which will affect the transition of advantages on factor supply in one country. It should be emphasized that the above-mentioned channels will have different effects on countries at different stages of economic development. Whether the roles can be brought into play or not depends on given restraints. The input output of factors themselves cannot form a clear function, but will interact together and act on economic growth hand in hand through numerous feedback chain.Chinese economy is now undergoing transformation from elementary age to middle age of industrialization. Service trade and investment in current period have both advantages and disadvantages.Based on these judgments, we propose that China should pursue a policy favoring protectionism on management of service trade and adopt relevant countermeasures as follows. Scientific development view should be formed with an eye to harmonizing development of three industries so as to lay a solid industries foundation for service trade; The strategic programming should be stipulated and the market of service trade should be opened gradually; The rule of international transfer of service trade should be mastered and environment of utilizing foreign investment on service industry should be improved.As the characteristics of the world's service-oriented economy have gradually emerged, service trade originating from the upgrading of industrial structure has developed rapidly, and the scale of service trade is rapidly expanding. From the statistical data, the total exports of world service trade rose rapidly from 365 billion U.S. dollars in 1980 to 377.779 billion U.S. dollars in 2008, an increase of 9.35 times. Compared with the trade of goods with a long history, service trade is a new form of trade. With the continuous increase in absolute size and relatively low levels, service trade has become a focus of attention in modern society.2 The impact of overall service trade on economic growthAccording to the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GA TS), which was signed in 1994, trade in services includes Cross- border Supply, Consumption A broad, Commercial Presence, and naturalperson mobility. (Movement of Natural Persn) Four modes. The service trade of these four modes has completely different properties and characteristics. Therefore, it is difficult to establish a unified theoretical framework for service trade to affect economic growth. The corresponding literature is very rare. The only foreign documents are mainly Robinson et al. (2002), who simply regard service trade as a commodity. Trade, without taking into account differences in the four trade models, studied the economic growth effects of service trade liberalization using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model.Using empirical methods to study the literature on the impact of overall service trade on economic growth is more, but such studies are mostly domestic scholars. Research shows that the average contribution of China's overall service trade to economic growth is 18.9%.3 Effect of Service Trade in Different Industries on Economic GrowthAt present, the literature on the impact of industry trade in service trade on economic growth is mostly concentrated in such service sectors as finance, telecommunications, and health care. These studies have basically reached a relatively unanimous conclusion that the opening of the service sector or the increase in productivity can significantly promote economic growth. . For example, studies by Beck et al. (1998), M urinde & Ryan (2003), and Eschenbach (2004) suggest that the opening of the financial sector has, to a certain extent, broken the monopoly of domesticfinancial markets and prompted the orderly competition of financial markets. On the normal development track, productivity has improved, and it has finally led to economic growth in the country. Kim (2000) studied the relationship between the development of service trade in the distribution sector and the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) using Korea's input-output data. The results show that the liberalization of service trade not only significantly promoted its own TFP. The promotion also promoted the improvement of total factor productivity in the related manufacturing sector. The total factor productivity growth brought about by service trade almost covered the entire economic sector.4 Effect of Service Trade on Economic Growth by Different Trading ModesThere are few literatures on specific transaction models and theoretical studies on the impact of trade in services on economic growth. Carr et al. (2001) & M arkusen et al. (2005) theoretically examined the commercial existence model by means of the CGE model. The impact of the trade in services on economic growth shows that the opening up of trade in services is an important source of the increase in economic welfare of a country. From the perspective of economic welfare, the opening up of trade in services is a general trend. Subsequently, the use of CGE models to theoretically examine the impact of service trade on economic growth began to prevail. For example, Rutherford et al. (2005)used the CGE model to evaluate Russia's WTO accession effects, and Ko nan &Maskus (2006) used CGE models. The potential effects of Tunisia's elimination of barriers to trade in services were studied. Their conclusions indicate that the increase in the level of economic welfare in one country can benefit from the opening up of the service market, while the elimination of FDI market access barriers in the service sector is a pattern of four trades. The most important liberalization measures are the main sources of increased welfare in a country. There are a lot of literatures on the relationship between service trade and economic growth in specific models using empirical methods. In the four modes of trade in services, commercial presence is the most important one, and from the point of view of data availability, although statistical data is still not very accurate, commercial existence of service trade is based on service industry FDI as a carrier. To achieve this, researchers can use service industry FDI data to characterize the scale of service trade in this model, and this type of trade model has received more attention. Among them, Markusen (1989) believes that the existence of commercial trade in services has two positive and negative effects. The positive effect is that competition in the service sector has led to an increase in domestic demand for the sector’s production factors, which is conducive to output growth. The effect of market size and negative effects means that the intensified competition in the domestic market of service industries has led to the withdrawal ofdomestic service-oriented enterprises from the market. The study by Markusen (1989) shows that the effect of market size after the opening of the service market far exceeds the crowding-out effect. After offsetting the crowding-out effect, it can still promote the productivity improvement of the non-service sector and further lead to the structure of domestic trade in goods. The changes, those sectors that were previously low in productivity and dependent on imports, will evolve into high-productivity export sectors, which is quite similar to the latest research findings on the interactive development of producer services and manufacturing. Hoekman (2006) and Hoekman (2006) used India as an example to examine the impact of the existence of commercial trade in services in the finance, telecommunications, and transportation sectors on the competitiveness of the goods export sector, and believe that these sectors have been liberalized. The level of soft facilities has been increased, which in turn has greatly reduced the operating costs of the downstream product manufacturing sector, which has increased the export competitiveness. With the inefficiency of the domestic service industry, the unfavorable pattern is reversed with the help of commercial presence of service trade. Feasible choice. Guerrieri et al. (2005) took the EU as the research object and analyzed the role of commercial trade in services for knowledge accumulation and economic growth. The study concluded that the openness of the service market or the relaxation of domesticservice regulations has positively promoted economic growth. It was found that the imported service items may be more able to promote economic growth than the domestic same service items due to high technological content.5 Possible Future Research DirectionsIt is not difficult to find from the above-mentioned documents that since the development of service trade started late, research on the growth of service trade began to rise gradually from the 1980s, and more than 20 years of research in this area is in the ascendant. With the further enhancement of the status of trade in services, the possible directions for future research will generally include the following aspects.From the point of view of research methodology, classification of service trade can be studied. As the theory of goods trade has gradually matured, the development practice of service trade still calls for the birth of the theory of service trade. Helpman and Markusen, international economists, expressed on different occasions that the difficulty in establishing the theoretical system of service trade lies in the fact that there are large differences in various types of service trades, and it is difficult for researchers to overcome the gap between them. Classifying service trade according to certain standards and exploring the impact of various types of service trade on economic growth is a possible direction for future research.From the perspective of the research subjects, it is possible to study China’s service trade and economic growth. China’s GDP has already ranked second in the world. However, the service industry’s added value accounted for only 40% of GDP, which is obviously not commensurate with the status of an economic power. In addition, the trade in services is still relatively small compared to the trade in goods. Under such a realistic background, what is the relationship between China's service trade and economic growth? How will service trade contribute to China's economic growth? What impact will service outsourcing have on China's economy? With China in In the next decade, how will China make service trade an engine of economic growth? From the academic point of view, economists from all countries are paying attention to China’s economic development, and China’s service trade will also be improved. It will become a research hotspot.From the perspective of research topics, it is possible to study the impact of service outsourcing on economic growth. In 2008, the scale of global service outsourcing market has reached 1.5 trillion US dollars. According to the UNCTAD (UNCT AD) speculation, the global service outsourcing market will increase by 30%-40% in the next 5-10 years.The surging service industry outsourcing is a new form of service trade. How does service outsourcing drive economic growth through employment, industrial structure upgrading, and technology spillovers?What are the differences in the impact of contracting and receiving services on economic growth in the service industry? Research on these issues will start with the development of service outsourcing to important theoretical guidance.中文译文国际服务贸易与经济增长理论与实证研究Chakraborty Kavin1 引言国际贸易与经济增长始终是国际经济学最生动的论题之一。
WTO,国际贸易,争端,英文文献
Shell to Evaluate Pennsylvania Site for Potential Ethane Cracker
Shell Chemical says it has signed a land option agrœment with Horsehead Corp. (Pittsburgh) to evaluate a site in Monaca, PA for its planned petrochemical complex based on shale gas (C\V,]une 6/13, 2011, p.j). The company last year said it pians to buiid a world-scale efhylene plant atop Marcellus Shale natural gas deposits in the U.S. Northeast. The cracker would have ethylene capacity of about 1.3 million m.t./year. Polyethylene (PE) will be the main downstream product and the company is also considering an ethylene glycol (EG) plant. Much of the PE and EG production wouid be used by industries in the northeast, Shell says. "This is an important step for the project, and we look forward to working with the communities in Pennsyivania, and gas producers across Appalachia, as we continue our efforts to develop a petrochemical complex," says Dan Carlson, general manager/new business development at Shell. The next environmental steps include additional analysis of the preferred Pennsylvania site, further engineering design studies, assessment of the iocai ethane supply, and continued evaluation of the economic viability of the project, Sheii says. Monaca is iocated about 28 miles north of Pittsburgh on the banks of the Ohio River. Shell says it looked at various factors to select the preferred site, including access to liquids-rich natural gas resources, water, road and rail transportation infrastructure, power grids, economics, and sufficient acreage to accommodate facilities for a worldscale petrochemical complex and potential future expansions. Horsehead, a producer of speciaity zinc and zinc-based products, is moving its zinc production operations to a new plant under construction in North Carolina. The company expects to start zinc production during the third quarter of 2013. Shell's option, if exercised, would require Horsehead to vacate its Monaca site by April 30, 2014
国贸毕业外文文献及其翻译
China’s Competitive Performance: A Threat To East Asian Manufactured Exports?There is growing concern in Southeast and East Asia about the competitive threat posed by China’s burgeoning exports, exacerbated by its accession to the WTO. The threat is not confined to labor-intensive products but spans the whole technological and skill range. At the same time, China is rapidly raising its imports from the region, and it is not clear whether its burgeoning exports will damage its neighbors. We examine the dime nsions of China’s competitive threat in the 1990s, benchmarking competitive performance by technology and market, and finds that market share losses are so far mainly in low technology products, with Japan being the most vulnerable market. We analyze market share changes and highlight product groups that are directly or indirectly exposed to a competitive threat. We examine intra-regional trade and find that China and its neighbors are raising high technology exports in tandem: the nature of the international production systems involved lead to complementarily rather than confrontation. China is thus acting as an engine of export growth for its neighbors in terms of direct trade. However, this will change as China moves up the value chain and takes on the activities that have driven East Asian export growth.IntroductionConcern about China’s competitive threat is widespread (in developed economies like US as well as developing ones like Mexico), but is strongest in East and Southeast Asia. China’s burgeoning exports–backed by cheap and productive labor, a large stock of technical manpower, huge and diversified industrial sector, attractiveness to foreign investors, pragmatic use of industrial policy, and, now, freer access to world markets under WTO – lead to apocalyptic visions of export losses.2 China is most threatening to neighbors that rely primarily on low wages for their export advantage. However, as it upgrades its export structure, the more advanced economies (Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan) also fear for their competitiveness. The current hollowing out of their low-end manufacturing may soon extend to complex production, design, development and related services. Domestic markets are also threatened by China, but so far most attention seems to have been on exports.Offsetting this threat are the promise of the giant Chinese market (WTOaccession is only one of several initiatives to liberalize regional trade) and the potential for collaboration with it in exporting to the rest of the world. Trade within the East Asian region is flourishing. China is a growing importer from the region of natural resources that it does not possess. It is also raisin g imports of manufactured products. Its advanced neighbors are selling it sophisticated consumer and producer goods, and using it as a base for processing exports to third countries. The multinational companies (MNCs) that now account for around half of Chinese exports (and far more of its high technology exports, UNCTAD,2002) are incorporating China into production systems spanning the region (‘fragmentation’ and‘segmentation’ are used to describe this phenomenon3), so promoting considerable intra-firm trade with other regional bases. China’s own enterprises are likely to specialize with respect to reg ional counterparts and so raise intra-industry trade in differentiated products. Perhaps worryingly for competitors in other regions, such integration can lead China to complement regional competitiveness as a whole, rather than substitute its exports for those of its neighbors.It is difficult to assess, however, whether complementarily between China and the regional economies will fully offset its competitive threat. The dynamics and complexity of the interactions make it impossible to quantify the outcome, even to predict broad directions. The basic issue is whether China’s higher wage neighbors can move into more advanced export activities or functions rapidly enough to permit continued export expansion. If they can, they can continue with export-led growth. If they cannot, they will suffer export deceleration and/or a shift in specialization towards primary products or slow-growing segments of manufactured exports. The outcome, in other words, will depend on the relative growth of technological and other capabilities in Chinese and regional enterprises, with the former having such advantages as lower wages, larger scale economies, greater industrial depth, pools of technical skill and a proactive government. However, as East Asian countries differ widely in these factors (Lall, 2001), they face different kinds and intensity of competitive threat. The nature of the threat depends, moreover, on the organization of the production and marketing system: independent local firms are likely to compete more directl y than affiliates of thesame MNC spread over different countries in an integrated system.This paper does not try to measure China’s competitive threat or its effects, but to map relative export performance in the 1990s by technology and destination and so assess where the threat appears most intense. We focus on major East Asian exporters5 and on exports to third markets, but we also analyses complementarities between China and East Asia, particularly in electronics, the region’s largest export and the one where MNC systems dominate. As the 1990s predate China’s WTO accession, we do not go into the implications of this accession; however, the analysis of competitive trends has implications for the evolution of future trade by the region as liberalization grows.Background on Chinese export performanceChinese manufactured exports grew by 16.9% per annum over 1990-2000, compared to 6.4% for the world, 12.0% for all developing countries and 10.3% for the rest of East Asia. Its share of world manufactured exports rose from 1.7% to 4.4% over the decade and continued rising rapidly. 6 Thus, by 2002 China accounted for 5.1% of world merchandise exports; it was then the fifth largest exporter (after USA, Germany, Japan and France, and ahead of the UK). China’s share of developing world manufactured exports rose from 11% to 20% over the 1990s and of the East Asian region excluding China from 18.7% to 41.8%. Its export gains (see below) spanned the entire technological spectrum, and were most dynamic in the complex end of the range, in products that have recently driven the export growth of the rest of East Asia.This export surge is likely to be sustained for some time to come. China has ‘spare capacity’ in that its per capita exports are still relatively small,7 wages are much lower than in its main neighbors and it has large reserves of cheap and disciplined labor (though drawing it into exports will involve the cost of building links with the interior).8 More importantly, its advantages are not static (confined to cheap labor); they are upgrading rapidly. China is investing heavily in technology and advanced skills; for example, the share of the relevant age group enrolled in tertiary education rose from 9 percent in 1997 to 13 percent in 2000 (UNESCO website). It is exploiting the scale offered by its giant market to become competitive in capital-intensive activities beyond the reach of manyneighbors. It is using its diverse industrial base to deepen local content. It is drawing in export-oriented FDI at an impressive rate, using its market attractions to induce investors to raise local R&D and linkages; till now it has been able to impose performance requirements of the type soon to be banned under WTO rules.WTO accession may constrain China’s ability to use indust rial policy (Nolan, 2001) but it will also open up new export opportunities, particularly in textiles and garments.9 Accession may also enhance its domestic competitiveness: it will improve the investment climate for FDI, make imported inputs cheaper (for enterprises outside special export regimes) and induce faster restructuring of domestic enterprises (Ianchovichinaetal, 2003, and Lemoyne and Unal-Kesenci, 2002).Market share changes in major developed country marketsWe analyze market shares of China and its neighbors in three major markets: Japan, the US and West Europe, according to technology categories (Annex Table 1). In terms of value, the most important market for China in 2000 is the US ($49 billion), followed by Japan ($36 billion) and West Europe ($38 billion). However, the rest of the world is almost as large a destination for Chinese exports as these together ($106 billion in 2000) and within this the rest of East Asia is larger than any major OECD market by itself ($74.6 billion).The competitive position of each country can be analyzed in terms of the market share in 1990 and 2000 and the change over the decade. The annex table shows the following:Total manufactured exports: China does best in Japan, followed at some distance by the US. In common with most neighbors, its market share gain is weakest in West Europe. Korea loses market shares in both Japan and US, while Taiwan loses only in the US. Hong Kong’s loses market shares in all markets, particularly in the US and Japan. Like Taiwan, Singapore loses only in the US. The new Tigers gain share in all markets. With the exception of Indonesia, with a rather tepid performance, the others all gain most share in the Japanese market. Resource based products: China again leads the region in terms of market share increases, with a pattern similar to that for total exports. However, Korea has alarge gain in Japan, in contrast to Taiwan and Singapore, which lose shares; the latter two also lose in the US. Thailand is a big gainer in Japan while Indonesia and the Philippines lose out in the US. Low technology products: China’s massive market share gains are again concentrated in Japan. The four mature Tigers generally suffer losses in market share, but Singapore sees an increase in Japanese market share. The best overall performance among the new Tigers is by Indonesia.Medium technology products: While the Chinese pattern of success recurs, the new Tigers make significant gains in Japan and Korea incurs a significant loss. Taiwan and Singapore suffer losses in the US market. High technology exports: Taiwan again diverges from Korea in its performance in Japan, the former showing the second largest gain in the group (after China) and the latter the largest loss. In the US market, the situation is reversed, with Singapore joining Taiwan in losing market shares. Among the new Tigers, Malaysia and the Philippines are the big gainers in Japan, but the other two also benefit significantly. The Philippines is the second largest winner in the group in the US market. In sum, China’s main market share gains in the developed world are concentrated in Japan (though the US accounts for a larger dollar value of export growth). This is also true of its neighbors with the exceptions of Korea and Indonesia (Hong Kong was an all-round loser). To the extent that we can interpret market share changes to be causally related to China’s export surge, it would seem that the mature Tigers suffered the most from Chinese competition. The largest such loss is in low technology products, which is to be expected, but this not take into account the growth of LT exports by Korea and Taiwan to China. The relatively low gains by the lower-income new Tigers in LT may also reflect the impact of Chinese competition – without the offsetting increase in exports of intermediates to China.ConclusionsChina’s export surge has raised grave concerns in the region. While some of the apocalyptic predictions may have been overdone, it is certainly possible that rapid export growth by such a massive entrant will adversely affects export growth in its neighbors. As this analysis shows,however, the outcome is complex.For a start, the rise in China’s exports is matched by that in its imports – within the region its import growth outpaces its export growth. With appropriate restructuring of activities to match new competitive needs, its neighbors should be able to maintain high rates of export growth.There are two main drivers of regional exports to China. The first is to meet its burgeoning demand for imported products: primary products and resource-based manufactures that it cannot produce capital goods and intermediates for domestic -oriented production and more sophisticated consumer goods than its industry can currently provide. The second is to meet the needs of its export industries. This has two components: ‘processing’ activity in special economic zones that use imported inputs for export activities, and other exporters that also need imports. Processing activity is increasingly organized as part of integrated production systems, particularly its high technology segments, though some domestic oriented industries are also being plugged into this system as they realize scale and learning economies and become globally competitive. Both drivers are likely to continue into the foreseeable future, though their composition will change as Chinese and regional capabilities develop.中国竞争力的表现：是对东亚制成品出口的威胁吗？越来越多的东南亚和东亚地区关注中国出口的迅速增长所带来的竞争威胁，中国加入WTO后，更加剧了这种情况。
国贸专业外文文献翻译
外文文献原稿和译文原稿Introduction2010,Risks in Global MarketWhere there’s an opportunity,there’s a risk.Traders always face risks in any market,from the richest countries to the least developed economies. And as the global economic crisis changed markets,some risks for international trades might have been unveiled or worsened.The risks,which derive from the diversity and vicissitude of market structures,jurisdictions,commerce rules, cultures,languages,and even psychosociological factors,may exist in any sector and stage of the trade process,such as destination marketing,customs clearance,financial support,debts and solvencies,and adherence to WTO rules.A report by the Ministry of Commerce of China specified the risks of investing and doing business in many countries.Zhou Mi,an expert on the research panel,argued that the global market is undergoing a wave of restructuring and rebalancing because consumption in developed countries has waned and the emerging economies will accordingly wield greater influence in the world economy.The newest updates of this report will reveal more specifics, and some of them are listed here in advance.A senior manager from Ernst& Young analyzes the effect that corporate reshaping could have on customs clearance.China Export&Credit Insurance Corporation evaluates the risk factors in the financial systems and debt structures of some important markets.An expert from China’s Economic Diplomacy defines some risks created by WTO rules and offers advice on how to handle the risks.译文介绍2010年，在全球市场的风险那里是一个机会，还有一个风险。
服务贸易自由化机制外文文献翻译2014年译文4000字
文献出处：Barattieri A. The mechanism of service trade liberalization[J]. Journal of International Economics, 2014, 92(1): 1-13.（声明：本译文归百度文库所有，完整译文请到百度文库。
）原文The mechanism of service trade liberalizationBarattieri AAbstractIn this paper, Service trade liberalization is the key areas of the United States to promote the TPP negotiations, the United States in the negotiations are pushing mechanism of a high standard of service trade liberalization. In this paper the progress of the TPP negotiations and services trade issues important position, on the basis of the acceptance, architecture design, focus on services, regulatory consistency four aspects in the TPP uncovers the "high standards" service trade liberalization mechanism establishment. American "high standards" service trade liberalization mechanism is tailored to the interests of the United States, actually services in the service of the United States. These mechanisms are through to strengthen and promote the TPP platform, forming reversed transmission to other countries.Key words: the TPP; The United States; Service trade liberalization; High standards; Mechanism designAmerica is the first largest exporter global trade in services, and for many years, continues to service trade surplus. Competitive advantage based on service industry and service industry The importance of promoting American exports, jobs and economic growth, the United States in the multilateral, bilateral and regional multiple layers jointly promoting service trade liberalization. In the Uruguay round negotiations, the United States has overcome many obstacles, for the first time to include the Service Trade in multilateral negotiations, contributed to the general Agreement on Trade in services (the Genre - al Agreement on Trade and Service,GATS) signed and implemented. Liberalization of GATS commitments, however, very limited in breadth and depth, it is difficult to meet the more open the foreign service the needs of the market. Due to the World Trade Organization (World Trade Organization, the WTO), a new round of talks to stagnate, the United States under the global multilateral system for the desire of promoting service Trade liberalization, bilateral and regional levels of the Free Trade Agreement (Free Trade Agreement, FTA) as one of the main platforms of the United States promote Free Trade in services. Of particular concern is that the United States is using the cross Pacific Partnership Agreement (Trans - Pacific Partnership Agreement, the TPP) the dominant platform for American values, build a new international trade rules, in order to obtain control of international rules. Under the TPP agreement, service trade as the TPP leaders to enforce the integral part of the "high standards" agreement was incorporated into the negotiations agenda.TPP in service trade agreement a denier, service trade liberalization will greatly promote the TPP region, with the will of the entire Asia-pacific region and the world service trade liberalization have a strong demonstration effect, will also for China's service trade liberalization reform in the future and promote have a powerful driving force, so it is necessary to pay close attention to the United States with the aid of TPP create specific design of international service trade rules1 The TPP talks progress and issues related to trade in services1.1 The TPP negotiationsSince U.S. President barrack Osama in November 2009 when visiting Tokyo high-profile, declared the United States to participate in the pact, led and driven by, in the United States has quietly held 19 rounds of group negotiations and minister level conference for many times. From March 2010 to the end of 2013, the TPP members first advanced the 19th round team talks. During this period, the TPP members from the initial eight countries also extended to the current 12 countries, South Korea is to join the TPP double edge consultation process, is expected to be at the end of 2014 officially became the TPP talks to 13 members. The TPP talks scheduled for the end of 2013, but until close to the end of the 19 rounds of negotiations, the TPPnegotiations team still has not agreed a final text of the TPP. Since the end of 2013 to May 2014, the TPP members has held many ministerial meeting in Singapore, Vietnam and chief negotiator for the meeting. From May 2014 ministerial meeting of the end of the Vietnam and Singapore, the TPP members still tries on the question of the rules of market access and reduce differences, in market access package of goods and services, intellectual property rights, legal and institutional transparency, pharmaceutical industry, investment, environment, state-owned enterprises, the rules of origin of textiles, such as financial services, there are still various problems more outstanding, the TPP talks a long way to go.1.2 The TPP attaches great importance to the issues related to service trade talksAccording to the TPP negotiations reach an outline and the framework of the Chinese and foreign related research can be known, the TPP the tentative negotiating text for the 29 chapters, it covers issues extensively than ever. Among them, in addition to trade in services, special issues, such as telecommunications, financial services, investment in e-commerce, the issue of regulatory consistency, business turnover also involved in the service trade related content. Throughout the United States trade representative's office announced each round issue can be found: to issues related to the trade in services are always appear in each round of TPP liberalization of trade negotiations, especially the competitive advantage of financial services, telecommunications and other issues, almost become the TPP negotiations will talk about issues in each round. That highlights the TPP agreement of service trade liberalization negotiations the importance and difficulty of the task, and the United States to tap the TPP and determination to set new rules on service trade liberalization.2 The United States to tap the TPP creating high standards of service trade liberalization mechanismIn the WTO multilateral level under the situation of lack promoting service trade liberalization, the United States to use its dominant TPP as set up a new generation of "high standard" service trade liberalization mechanism is one of the ways. Based on the related academic research and keeping track of the TPP negotiations, found that the current TPP service trade from the mechanism in the way of commitment, overallarchitecture, key services liberalization, with consistent "regulatory issues to promote" service market opening, etc all shows the characteristics of high standard, the following will focus on from four aspects, analyze the mechanism of TPP service trade liberalization.2.1 using "negative list" commitmentDominant in the United States and, driven by the TPP in the mode of service trade liberalization commitment choose to adopt the way of "negative list" promise, it is the TPP as a new generation of one of the iconic features of the trade agreement.” Negative list" and "Ken listing" completely different way of commitment, "negative list" from top to bottom commitment ways can cover the entire service trade activities, the measures listed in the list Belong to the exception. And "must list" of promises by way of commitment applies only to specific services or a specific service mode, higher levels of service trade liberalization must be gradually implemented through several rounds of service trade negotiation. In essence, "must list" and "negative list" promise way can promote the service sector liberalization, however the latter than the former has more transparency, stability, the advantages of the universal applicability and efficiency, therefore, using "negative list" is also thought contains the high standards of liberalization.In terms of transparency, applicability, because "must list" of a particular phase locked rule did not make commitment to service department or of the service commitments If there are no promises in the service mode is not binding, and commitment has been made in the service department or service model may use exception list also does not require; The listing requirements for "negative list" model retained by the listed exceptions measures. This means that the mode based on "negative list" promise is intrinsically transparency. In terms of stability rules, based on the way "must list" commitment in providing special services or service mode of making a new commitment to achieve the level of service trade liberalization may be lower than both the level and thus may result in service trade liberalization reversal; But based on "negative list" of service trade liberalization "ratchet mechanism", this kind of mechanism to ensure the "negative list" does not weaken the service tradeliberalization in the existing water flat, thus ensure the relative stability of the service trade rules.Is universal applicability, "negative list" promise mode, the first member countries negotiate the general rules of service trade liberalization, the inventory list Only on the general rule of exceptions or retain, for no exception or retain members, universal; And "must list" commitment to the member states of the mode of liberalization commitment level may be uneven, and the rules apply only to make a promise between countries, this reduces the universal applicability of commitment. In terms of service trade liberalization negotiations efficiency, in the subsequent further since the negotiations, "negative list" simply listing the reserved liberalization measures in negotiations, the negotiations time and cost less, that means free talks of high efficiency; While "must list" for listing outside the service mode, the principle of departments or negotiate one by one, may be more than the "negative list" take time and cost of negotiation. The pact is choice is much more open-ended way of "negative list" commitment, to expand and deepen service liberalization commitments more effectively, meet the maximum open the interests of other countries' trade in services market requirements. In the long run to see, because the TPP members covered with wider range of area, through extension mechanism of TPP and demonstration effect, the United States can naturally, to improve and strengthen the NAFTA model introduced by the mechanism of service trade liberalization, and the way of "negative list" to the world, and then realize the United States continues to lead the global service trade liberalization mechanism of strategic purpose.2.2 service trade liberalization architecture design innovationThe pact is the text of the integral design of the mechanism of service trade liberalization TPP is actually dominated by the United States, the United States wants to continue making the TPP a high standard of comprehensive free trade agreement template.TPP in mechanism design presents the service trade and merchandise trade liberalization is neck and neck, which conforms to since the beginning of the 21st century a free trade agreement in parallel trend of trade in goods and services trade-In addition, due to the unique competitive advantage in trade in services, which isdominated by the United States of TPP, the system of trade in services architecture design is completely different from the pattern design of GATS four kinds of trade in services. Specifically, the TPP service trade issues related to both exist in separate chapters way special topics, such as the TPP "cross-border trade in services" "telecommunications service", "financial services" are distributed in the other chapters of liberalization arrangements, such as "investment" (pattern 3) involved in the service industry investment, "business personnel temporary into the" chapter involving natural flow of trade in services provide pattern 4 phase content, involved in the "regulatory consistency" services consistency issues, etching addition, e-commerce, government procurement, competition policy, legal release, institutional arrangements and the issue of dispute settlement and so on also to services and service trade with constraints on stakeholders.The GATS four kinds of trade in services model of discrete arrangement According to the mechanism of TPP service trade liberalization of architectural design, the TPP four service mode under the GATS definition from the cross points, corresponding to the related rules of model 3 and model 4 are divided in investment rules and business personnel temporary entry section. Specific as follows: (1) cross-border services trade and investment division "must list" of GATS commitments under way, according to the service trade agreement framework of four provide models were set up, the trade in services (mode 1, 2, 4) and investment rules (pattern 3) are integrated in the service trade agreement. However, with the development of international trade in services, through the trade in services in the form of commercial presence has increased the proportion of the total trade in services. According to the U.S. bureau of economic analysis (BEA) statistics, as early as in 1996, the United States through set up branches abroad, trade in services in the form of commercial presence is the total amount is more than the total amount of cross-border trade in services. Investment rules under the service trade agreement architecture has been difficult to meet through commercial modes of existence XiangDongDao provide to serve the interests of the investors, investment rules and service division Profit as an objective need for expanding trade in services.3 Conclusions and ProspectService trade liberalization is one of the key areas of the TPP negotiations, in the us, driven by the TPP aims to establish high standards of service trade freedom mechanism is made, reshape the rules of service trade liberalization in the Asia-pacific region, and further move Multilateral international service trade liberalization talks. This article through to the TPP negotiations progress and content analysis, reveals the United States from four aspects with the aid of the TPP talks to create one of the main features of the high standard of service trade liberalization mechanism. Namely "negative list", different modes of service trade liberalization commitments way points set rules of architecture system, focus on high standards of services liberalization, creating "regulatory consistency issues" in the face of the domestic regulatory barriers. The above situation shows that the United States as the leader of the TPP negotiations, is with the aid of the TPP talks to build new rules of international service trade liberalization. The design rules of service trade liberalization, to some extent, is tailored for the interests of the United States, cut field services in the service of the United States. Its most significant performance is: in the United States has the advantage of departments, such as financial, telecommunications and other sectors, create high standard since the rules; Sensitive sectors in the United States, such as natural person, the us has been in the prudent open state, to avoid the excessive open through separate chapters. Although the TPP negotiations is not yet the final result, but the TPP negotiations this body for the global pattern of international trade have a significant impact, the rules of the TPP negotiations also affects the course of the international rules. As China's important trade partner in the Asia-pacific region have joined the TPP negotiations, China's face are the TPP marginalized embarrassing position. Whether in the future the TPP negotiations can reach an agreement, the TPP rules of service trade liberalization to expand in the Asia-pacific region has been open to China's service industry forming reversed transmission of power. In the trend of service trade liberalization in the trend of The Times, the Chinese also can't stay, especially strong to add on the depth offocus in the field of service liberalization and research on the effects of transverse issues on international service regulation.译文（声明：本译文归百度文库所有，完整译文请到百度文库。
世界贸易和国际贸易外文文献及中文翻译
World Trade and International TradeIn today’s complex economic world, neither individuals nor nations are self-sufficient. Nations have utilized different economic resources; people have developed different skills. This is the foundation of world trade and economic activity. As a result of this trade and activity, international finance and banking have evolved.For example, the United States is a major consumer of coffee, yet it does not have the climate to grow any or its own. Consequently, the United States must import coffee from countries (such as Brazil, Colombia and Guatemala) that grow coffee efficiently. On the other hand, the United States has large industrial plants capable of producing a variety of goods, such as chemicals and airplanes, which can be sold to nations that need them. If nations traded item for item, such as one automobile for 10,000 bags of coffee, foreign trade would be extremely cumbersome and restrictive. So instead of batter, which is trade of goods without an exchange of money, the United State receives money in payment for what it sells. It pays for Brazilian coffee with dollars, which Brazil can then use to buy wool from Australia, which in turn can buy textiles Great Britain, which can then buy tobacco from the United State.Foreign trade, the exchange of goods between nations, takes place for many reasons. The first, as mentioned above is that no nation has all of the commodities that it needs. Raw materials are scattered around the world. Large deposits of copper are mined in Peru and Zaire, diamonds are mined in South Africa and petroleum is recovered in the Middle East. Countries that do not have these resources within their own boundaries must buy from countries that export them.Foreign trade also occurs because a country often does not have enough of a particular item to meet its needs. Although the United States is a major producer of sugar, it consumes more than it can produce internally and thus must import sugar.Third, one nation can sell some items at a lower cost than other countries. Japan has been able to export large quantities of radios and television sets because it can produce them more efficiently than other countries. It is cheaper for the United States to buy these from Japan than to produce them domestically. According to economic theory, Japan should produce and export those items from which it derives a comparative advantage. It should also buy and import what it needs from those countries that have a comparative advantage in the desired items.Finally, foreign trade takes place because of innovation or style. Even though the United States produces more automobiles than any other country, it still imports large numbers of autos from Germany, Japan and Sweden, primarily because there is a market for them in the United States.For most nations, exports and imports are the most important international activity. When nations export more than they import, they are said to have a favorable balance of trade. When they import more than they export, an unfavorable balance of trade exists. Nations try to maintain a favorable balance of trade, which assures them of the means to buy necessary imports.International trade is the exchange ofgoods and services produced in one country for goods and services produced in another country. There are several reasons for it.The distribution lf natural resources around the world is somewhat haphazard: some nations possess natural deposits in excess of their own requirements while other nations have none. For example, Britain has large reserves of coal but lacks many minerals such as nickel, copper, aluminum etc, whereas the Arab states have vast oil deposits but little else. In the cultivation of natural products climates whereas others, such as citrus fruits, require a Mediterranean climate. Moreover, some nations are unable to produce sufficient of a particular product to satisfy a large home demand, for example, Britain and wheat. These are the reasons why international trade first began.With the development of manufacturing and technology, there arose another incentive for nations to exchange their products. It was found that it made economic sense for a nation to specialize in certain activities and produce those goods for which it had the most advantages, and to exchange those goods for the products of other nations which and advantages in different fields. This trade is based on the principle of comparative advantage.The theory of comparative advantage, also called the comparative cost theory, was developed by David Ricardo, and other economists in the nineteenth century. It points out that trade between countries can be profitable for all, even if one of the countries can produce every commodity more cheaply. As long as there are minor, relative differences in the efficiency of producing a commodity even the poof country can have a comparative advantage in producing it. The paradox is best illustrated by this traditional example: the best lawyer in town is also the best typist in town. Since this lawyer cannot afford to give up precious time from legal and typing matters. But the typist’s comparative disadvantage is least in typing. Therefore, the typist has a relative comparative advantage in typing.This principle is the basis of specialization into trades and occupations. At the same time, complete specialization may never occur even when it is economically advantageous. For strategic or domestic reasons, a country may continue to produce goods for which it does not have an advantage. The benefits lf specialization may also be affecting by transport costs: goods and raw materials have to be transported around the world and the cost of the transport narrows the limits between which it will prove profitable to trade. Another impediment to the free flow of goods between nations is the possible introduction of artificial barriers to trade, such as tariffs or quotas.In addition to visible trade, which involves the import and export lf goods and merchandise, there is also invisible trade, which involves the exchange of services between nations.Nations such as Greece and Norway have large marine fleets and provide transportation service. This is a kind of invisible trade. When an exporter arranges shipment, he rents space in the cargo compartment or a ship.The prudent e xporter purchases insurance for his cargo’s voyage. While at sea, a cargo is vulnerable to many dangers. Thus, insurance is another service in which some nations specialize. Great Britain, becauseof the development of Lloyd’s of London, is a leading expor ter of this service, earning fees for insuring other nations’ foreign trade.Some nations possess little in the way of exporter commodities or manufactured goods, but they have a mild and sunny climate. During the winter, the Bahamas attract large numbers of countries, who spend money for hotel accommodations, meals, taxis, and so on. Tourism, therefore, is another form of invisible trade.Invisible trade can be as important to some nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations earn money to buy necessities.International trade today little resembles European commerce as it existed between the 16th century and the 19th century. Trade in earlier times was conducted largely between a mother country and its colonies. It was conducted according to strict mercantilist principles. The colonies were supposed to supply the mother country with raw materials, and they were expected to buy all finished goods from the mother country. Other forms of trade were forbidden to the colonies, but many of them evaded these restrictions.A result of the Industrial Revolution, which began in England in the 18th century, was the transformation of trade from a colonial exchange into a many sided international institution. Cottage industries gave way to mass production in factories. Railroads and steamships lowered the cost of transportation at the same time that new markets were being sought for the expanding output of goods.The Industrial Revolution also brought an end to mercantilist policies. The laissez-faire attitudes that emerged in their stead permitted businessmen to manufacture what they pleased and to trade freely with other nations. Trade was also stimulated by the growth of banking facilities, insurance companies, and improved commercial shipping and communications.The repeal of the Corn Laws by Great Britain in 1846 ended Britain’s longstanding policy of protectionism. During the 19th century, many European nations made commercial agreements with each other easing their tariff rates. Lower tariffs and the growth of population and industry caused trade to soar in the 19th century.In the 20th century two world wars and a major depression caused severe disturbances in international trade. Nations, sensing a threat to their domestic economies, sought to protect themselves from further disturbances by erecting various barriers to trade.The situation became even worse after Great Britain abandoned the gold standard. The nations that were closely related to Britain, including most of the members of the Commonwealth of gold standard. As the means of making international payments broke down and trade restrictions increased, some countries had to resort to barter to obtain foreign goods.International trade was in such severe straits during the depression that a World Economic Conference was held in 1933. This conference, however, was unable to halt a rash of currency devaluations, tariff increases, and quota arrangements.In 1934, U.S. Secretary of State Cordell Hull persuaded Congress to pass the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act. This law authorized the President to negotiate tariff cuts with other nations. The Reciprocal Trade Act provided for protection of U.S. industries in the event foreign imports increased to such a degree that U.S. businesses were injured. This protection included peril point and escape clauses under which tariff cuts could by refused of rescinded if a U.S. industry suffered economic hardship. Despite the protectionist clauses in the act, U.S. tariffs were substantially reduced.Shortly before the end of World War Ⅱ, members of the United Nations met at Bratton Woods, N.H. to discuss ways of reducing the financial barriers to international trade. The International Monetary Fund was established as a result of the conference. The fund was designed to encourage the growth of international trade by stabilizing currencies and their rate of foreign exchange.In the early postwar period, more than 20 nations met in Geneva, Switzerland, to negotiate tariff reductions. When any two nations reached an agreement to reduce tariffs on a product, the benefits were extended to all participating nations. This was an application of the so-called most favored nation clause.The Geneva tariff agreements were written into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). GATT also established standards for the conduct of international trade. Fox example, the agreement prohibits nations from placing quotas of limits on imports, except under very special circumstances.After World War Ⅱ a number of free trade areas were formed to solve trade problems on a regional basis. Tariffs on goods moving within these areas were to be abolished. Some of the groups also erected a single tariff on the goods of outsiders coming into their common area. Such groups are called customs unions. The goal of all trade blocs was to merge small political units into large geographic entities in which goods could be freely manufactured and sold. A large market area greatly stimulates economic growth and prosperity. These trade blocs are: Benelux, The European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the European Economic Community (EEC or Common Market), the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECOM), the Latin American Free Trade Association (LAFTA), the Central American Common Market (CACM), the Caribbean Free Trade Area (CARIFTA), the Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM).世界贸易和国际贸易在当今复杂的经济世界个人和国家都不是自给自足。
国贸外文文献翻译
外文文献翻译原文：FACTORS AFFECTING ONLINE PURCHASING BEHAVIORHamisah Haji Hasan & Prof. Samsudin A. RahimUniversiti Putra Malaysia & Universiti Kebangsaan MalaysiaAbstractThe study examined the relationship between consumer personality and cultural dimensions to that of purchasing behavior through cyber advertising. Krugman‟s Low Involvement theory and Hofstede‟s Cultural Dimensions were incorporated in the study. A survey was conducted in the Subang Jaya, Puchong and Kuala Lumpur area. The sample consisted of 504 respondents drawn from a simple random sampling. Spearman Correlation Coefficients was used to analyze the data. The study showed as suggested by Krugman‟s Low Involvement theory, high involvement products and attitude towards Internet contributed significantly to the purchasing behavior through cyber advertising. Thus indicating the Internet to be better suited for high involvement products and services as well as help increase the tendency to purchase products and services online.Similarly, the study also showed that the convenience dimension of the consumer personality variable formed a significant relationship with purchasing behavior through cyber advertising. Although Hofstede‟s Cultural Dimensions argued that cultural dimensions influences the adoption of innovations, yet results obtained from the study failed to support the theory as it was found that risk personality which represent the other dimension of the consumer personality and the cultural dimensions failed to support the hypotheses as observed in the non-significant relationships between the variables and the purchasing behavior through cyber advertising.Keywords: Internet, Hofstede Cultural Dimension, Krugman Low Involvment Theory, advertising, online purchasing behavior.The Internet Era: Cyber Advertising and Media PlanningThe development in the new media technologies that range from the Internet, interactive kiosks and CD-ROMS, to digital TV and radio are today ushering in a new era and have opened up new avenues for marketing communications. These new media are not only revolutionizing marketing and marketing communications but it has also influence consumers‟ behavior.The advent of the new technology namely the internet has tremendously altered the way consumers behave. The new media has not only offered consumers a better way to view products and services but also has helped created a better relationship between marketer and consumers. Thus, transforming them into a more sophisticated, well-informed and savvy buyers and as suggested by Arens (1999) consumers today are becoming “active controllers “of the messages they see and hear. Apparently, these past few years have also witnessed the rise and rapid growth in economic importance of a group of consumers whose attitudes, aspirations and purchasingpatterns are unlike any before them. Today, they are the new consumers. They are already a potent force in the developed world, and within the next decade will probably dominate consumption in all parts of the world. This new consumers with their distinctive style of consumption differs in their purchasing decisions from that of the old consumers.The Internet has affected the way the world do business by altering the basic business dynamics. The dynamics that have shaped economic practices since the early nineteenth century are being replaced by a new set of fundamental principle based on the new digital economy. The Internet has also helped increased global exposure for both businesses and consumers alike. Domestic companies expand internationally just by going online and investing in e-business. At the time consumers can also expand their shopping horizons by using the Internet to search for the best deals and expose themselves to e-retailers from around the globe.Obviously, the Internet has offer tremendous new opportunities to businesses regardless oftheir size. As a medium, it is equally accessible to both the large as well as the small operators. This has thus, resulted in local and international marketplace. The Internet is changing the way advertisers present, sell, and communicate with consumers. Today, a variety of practices are being used to reach consumers.译文：影响网上购物的因素Hamisah哈吉·哈桑教授及三苏丁A.拉希姆马来西亚博特拉大学和马来西亚国民大学摘要该研究通过网络购买行为验证消费者的个性和文化维度之间的关系。
国际贸易参考文献英文
国际贸易参考文献英文English:For references on international trade, there are several key texts that scholars and practitioners often use. "International Trade: Theory and Policy" by Paul Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld is a well-regarded textbook that provides an in-depth understanding of the theories and policies surrounding international trade. Another important reference is "World Trade Statistical Review" by the World Trade Organization, which provides comprehensive data and analysis on global trade patterns and trends. "The Law and Policy of the World Trade Organization" by Peter Van Den Bossche is an essential text for understanding the legal framework and workings of the WTO, while "The Competitive Advantage of Nations" by Michael E. Porter offers insights into the role of national competitiveness in international trade. These references cover a wide range of topics and provide valuable insights into the complexities of international trade.中文翻译:对于国际贸易的参考文献，有几本关键的书籍是学者和实践者经常使用的。
国贸专业英文文献翻译
Oil price fluctuations and their impact on the macroeconomic variables of Kuwait：a case study using a V AR modelSUMMARYIn this study，a vector auto regression model (V AR) and a vector error correction model (VECM) were estimated to examine the impact of oil price fluctuations on seven key macroeconomic variables for the Kuwaiti economy. Quarterly data for the period 1984 - 1998 were utilized. Theoretically and empirically speaking，VECM is superior to the V AR approach. Also，the results corresponding to the VECM model are closer to common sense.However，the estimated models indicate a high degree of interrelation between major macroeconomic variables. The empirical results highlight the causality running from the oil prices and oil revenues，to government development and current expenditure and then towards other variables. For the most part，the empirical evidence indicates that oil price shocks and hence oil revenues have a notable impact on government expenditure，both development and current. However，government development expenditure has been influenced relatively more.The results also point out the significance of the CPI in explaining a notable part of the variations of both types of government expenditure. On the other hand，the variations in value of imports are mostlyaccounted for by oil revenue fluctuations and then by the fluctuation in government development expenditures. Also，the results from the VECM approach indicate that a significant part of LM2 variance is explained by the variance in oil revenue. It reaches about 46 percent in the 10th quarter，even more than its own variations.KEY WORDS：vector auto regression (V AR); oil fluctuation; Kuwait1. INTRODUCTIONThe post-1973 effects of the oil boom on the economies of Arab oil producing countries have been diverse，though on balance，many of those governments might look back on the period 1973 –1986 as a mixed blessing. Income on the oil account certainly rose rapidly，but so did price inflation，wage rates and reliance on foreign labor. Above all，the growth of the oil sector as a contributor to national income tended to reduce the role of nonoil sectors to insignificance in most Arab states of the Gulf. This phenomenon has been termed in the literature ‘the Dutch Disease ’ . Dramatic ris es in per capita income were the fruits of rising oil revenues alone，even in the case of the larger more diversified economies of the Gulf such as Iran (Al-Abbasi，1991).There is a great deal of theoretical and empirical literature scrutinizing various aspects of the Dutch Disease economies such as Cordon and Neary (1982)，Hamilton (1983)，Neary and van Wijnbergen (1986)，Fardmanesh (1991)，Van Wijnbergen (1984)，Gelb and Associates (1988) and Taylor et al. (1986) to name a few. Recently，several empirical studies have been published on Arab oil producing countries. For instance，Taher (1987) studied the impacts of changes in the world oil prices on the different sectors of the Saudi economy. Furthermore，Al-Mutawa (1991) and Al-Mutawa and Cuddington (1994) analysed the effects of oil shocks and macroeconomic policy changes for the UAE. The results showed that，in the case of UAE，an oil-quantity boom led to higher welfare gains than an oil-price boom. Moreover，an oil-price or quantity bust always led to lower economic growth and created a welfare loss. Also，Al-Mutairi (1993) attempted to identify the sources of output fluctuations and the dynamic response of the economy to changes in key macroeconomic variables for Kuwait. His empirical results suggested that for short horizons of one and two years，shocks to the oil price account for more than 50 per cent of the variance of GDP. However，at longer horizons of three years and more，these shocks are seen to be unimportant in inducing GDP fluctuations，accounting only for less than 10 per cent of the variance. Shocks of real-government expenditure were also found to have a significant role in causing GDP fluctuations.Kuwait is a typical example of an oil-based economy. The oil sector contributes over two-thirds of GDP and over 90 per cent of exports. Although Kuwait tries hard to lessen its dependence on oil through the development of a non-oil sector，its success has so far been，at the best，very modest. The real problem is that oil prices and hence oilrevenues are exogenously determined. As a member of OPEC，Kuwait has no control over the price of its crude oil and at least theoretically speaking cannot exceed its assigned production quota. The objectives of this study are to investigate the impacts of oil price fluctuations on key macroeconomic variables of the Kuwaiti economy，to examine the direction of causality and to determine the significance of such impacts. This will certainly enhance our understanding of how international oil price fluctuations impact key macroeconomic variables and the dynamic response of these economic variables，including policy variables such as government expenditure and money supply.In this study，the analysis is carried out using two different models，namely，the vector autoregres-sion model (V AR) and the vector error correction model (VECM). The V AR technique is appropriate in this case because of its ability to characterize the dynamic structure of the model as well as its ability to avoid imposing excessive identifying restrictions associated with different economic theories. The use of V AR in macroeconomics has generated much empirical evidence，giving fundamental support to many economic theories (see Blanchard and Watson，1984，Bernanke，1986 among others).In the next section，a brief review of the literature is presented followed by the V AR model along with the data utilized. The empirical results and their interpretation are given in section four，followed by the conclusions.2. THE MODEL2.1. The background of V AR methodologyThe V AR system is based on empirical regularities embedded in the data. The V AR model may be viewed as a system of reduced form equations in which each of the endogenous variables is regressed on its own lagged values and the lagged values of all other variables in the system. An n variable V AR system can be written asA(l)Y t=A+U t(1)A(l)=l-A1l-A2l2-A m l m(2)where Y t is an n × 1 vector of macroeconomic variables，A is an n ×1 vector of constraints，and U t is an n ×1 vector of random variables，each of which is serially uncorrelated with constant variance and zero mean. Equation(2) is an n × n matrix of normalized polynomials in the lag operator l with the first entry of each polynomial on A ' s being unity.Since the error terms (U t) in the above model are serially uncorrelated，an ordinary-least-squares (OLS) technique would be appropriate to estimate this model. However，before estimating the parameters of the model A(l) meaningfully，one must limit the length of the lag in the polynomials. If l is the lag length，the number of coefficients to be estimated is n(nl +c)，where c is the number of constants.In the V AR model above，the current innovations (U t) are unanticipated but become part of the information set in the next period.This implies that the anticipated impact of a variable is captured in the coefficients of lagged polynomials while the residuals capture unforeseen contem-poraneous events. Therefore，an important feature of the V AR methodology is the use of the estimated residuals，called V AR innovations，in dynamic analysis. Unlike in conventional economic modelling，these V AR innovations are treated as an inherent part of the system.In order to analyse the impact of unanticipated policy shocks on the macroeconomic variables in a more convenient and comprehensive way，Sims (1980) proposed the use of impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decompositions (FEVDs). IRFs and FEVDs are obtained from a moving average representation of the V AR model [Equations (1) and (2)] as shown belowY t=Constant+H t(l)U (3)AndH(l)=I+H t l+H2l (4)Where H is the coefficient matrix of the moving average representation which can be obtained by successive substitution in Equations (1) and (2). The elements of the H matrix trace the response over time of a variable i due to a unit shock given to variable j. In fact，these impulse response functions will provide the means to analyse the dynamic behaviour of the macroeconomic variables due to unanticipated shocks in the exogenous variables.Having derived the variance-covariance matrix from the moving-average representation，the FEVDs can be constructed.FEVDs represent the decomposition of forecast error variances and therefore give estimates of the contributions of distinct innovations to the variances. Thus，they can be interpreted as showing the portion of variance in the prediction for each variable in the system that is attributable to its own innovations and to shocks to other variables in the system.2.2. Vector error correction methodology Dickey and Fuller (1979) have emphasized the necessity of analysing the time-series properties of the variables before their relationship can be established. This is necessary because if the variables in question are nonstationary，then the estimated equations will yield spurious and misleading regression results. If the variables in a relationship are stationary then it is generally true that any linear combination of these variables is said to be cointegrated. Johansen’s test (1991，1995) is commonly used to test for cointegration between more than two time series. It also provides estimates of the possible long-term relationships，i.e. the parameters of the relationships that ensure cointegration. In this study，a vector error correction model (VECM) was also estimated.The VECM is basically a V AR system that builds on Johansen ' s test for cointegration and is usually referred to in the literatures as the restricted V AR.2.3. The estimated model and dataThe first step in estimating a V AR model is to make a choice of the macroeconomic variables that are essential for the analysis. Thevariables consist of one external shock measured by innovations in the price of Kuwaiti blend crude oil，three key macroeconomic variables，oil revenues，the consumer price index，(CPI) and the value of imports and three policy variables，Money Supply M2，government current expenditure and government development expenditure. The notations of these variables are as follow：OILP = Oil Price of Kuwaiti Blend CrudeOILR= Oil RevenueEXDEV = Government Development ExpenditureEXCON =Government Current ExpenditureCPI = Consumer Price IndexM2 =Money Demand (M2 Definition)IMPORTS = Value of Imports of Goods & ServicesQuarterly data for the period 1984：1-1998：4 were utilized in this study. The data for the period of the Iraqi occupation and the liberation of Kuwait were removed from the time series for obvious reasons (1990-1991). All data are from the Quarterly Monetary Statistics of the Central Bank of Kuwait and OPEC’s Monthly Bulletin. Similar to the previous studies，all the variables are expressed in logarithmic form. This can be partially justified by the fact that logarithmic forms tend to reduce the scale of the variables，which is a desirable quality when analysing the time-series properties of the variables before their relationship can be established. It is also a useful tool in providing estimates of the possible long-term relationships，i.e. the parameters of the relationships that ensure co-integration.A very important point that should be mentioned here is that the major shortcoming of the V AR approach is its lack of theoretical substance (Cooly and LeRoy，1985; Leamer，1985). In response to this criticism，Blanchard and Watson (1984) and Bernanke (1986) developed procedures，called the structural vector autoregression (SV AR) approach，which combines the features of the traditional structural modelling with those of the V AR methodology. The major advantage of using SV AR comes from the fact that standard V AR disturbances are generally characterized by contemporaneous correlations. In the presence of such correlations，the response of the system，indicated by IRFs，to an innovation in one of the variables is in fact the response to innovations in all those variables that are contemporaneously correlated with it. Similarly，the ability of FEVDs to quantify the relative contributions of specific sources of variation is confounded in the presence of this correlation. However，in standard V AR methodology this contemporaneous correlation is purged by the Cholesky orthogonalization procedure. For the most part，the Cholesky procedure implicitly assumes recursivity in the V AR model as it is estimated. Although theoretical considerations may help in determining this ordering and ex-post sensitivity analysis may further help provide insights regarding appropriate ordering，it remains largely at the discretion of the modeller.The following ordering of equations was adopted in this study; LOILP，LOILR，LEXEDEV，LEXCON，LCPI，LM2 andLIMPORTS. Generally speaking，this ordering reflects the fact that oil prices have an influence on oil revenues and then on all the other variables in the model. However，the behavior of oil prices and to some extent oil revenue are the least determined by other variables included in the model. This is quite a plausible assumption because the oil prices and hence oil revenues which consist of oil export revenues and net factor income from abroad are largely determined by the world market conditions rather than within the Kuwaiti Economy. Similarly，this ordering assumes that the government expenditure is largely determined by the level of oil revenues which again is quite a plausible assumption considering the dominant role of the public sector in driving the Kuwaiti economy. It is also sensible to assume that the value of imports is largely dependent on the level of government expenditure.Since the only variables included are those suggested by economic theory，and since theoretical considerations are important in selecting the ordering used here，the SV AR is not followed in this study. Nevertheless，the approach utilized here can be considered to be in the spirit of the SV AR approach.3. THE EMPIRICAL RESULTSFirst，the V AR technique requires stationary data，thus each series should be examined for stationarity. Table I gives the nonstationary test for all the time-series，using the conventional Dicky-Fuller test (DF)，its augmented version (ADF) and Phillips-Parron t-tests. Thesetests include a constant but no time trend，as recommended by Dickey and Fuller (1979).First，the reported t-statistics，when compared with the critical values obtained by Engle and Yoo (1987)，indicate that almost all the series，except CPI，M2 and IMPORTS，are stationary in the levels as shown by the DF，ADF and Phillips-Perron t-tests. These tests are reapplied after differencing all terms. The t-statistics on the lagged first-difference terms indicate that，for all series the null hypothesis is rejected，that is to say，all series are first differences stationary. However，in transforming a variable，a usual question arises as to whether one should use the variables in the system in levels or in differences. The overall guideline is that if there are k number of cointegrating vector among the variables used in the system，then V AR could be modelled with k stationary and n-k differences of original variables. But if all the variables in the system are nonstationary，using a V AR in levels is appropriate. On the other hand，estimating a V AR in the levels in the case of cointegration may lead to the omission of important constraints.In this context，Doan et al. (1984) noted that differencing a variable is ‘important ' in the case of Box-Jenkins ARIMA Modelling. Doan et al. also observed that it is not desirable to do so in V AR models. Fuller (1976) has also shown that differencing the data may not produce any gain so far as the ‘asymptotic efficiency’of the V AR is concerned ‘even if it is appropriate’.Moreover，Fuller has argued that differencing a variable ‘ throws information away ' while producing nosignificant gain. Thus，following Doan and Fuller’s argument，the level rather than the difference was utilized here.Second，the estimation of a V AR model requires the explicit choice of lag length in the equations of the model. Following Judge et al. (1988) and McMillin (1988)，Akaike’s AIC criterion is used to determine the lag length of the V AR model. The chosen lag length is one that minimizes the following：AIC(n)=Indet∑+(2d2n)/Twhere d is the number of variables in the model，T the sample size and∑n an estimate of the residuals’variance-covariance matrix ∑n obtained with a V AR (n). The maximum lag length is set at five quarters，considering the sample size and number of variables in the model. A maximum lag of greater than five quarters would reduce the degrees of freedom for estimation unacceptably. The result of employing this technique is summarized in Table II，which shows the corresponding AIC values. It can be seen that the AIC criterion is minimized for order 4. This suggests that，for this study，the V AR model should be of order 4.The next step is to estimate the V AR. The estimates along with their t-values are reported in Table III. Although the estimates of individual coefficients in V AR do not have a straightforward interpretation，a glance at the table generally shows that most of the t-values are significant (except for the CPI equation) and almost all of the equations have high R-squares. It also confirms the assertion that oil prices are exogenously determined than other variables included in themodel. However，oil revenue equation has a larger number of significant t-values than current expenditure and CPI.3.1. Variance decompositionTable IV presents the variance decomposition for the 10-quarters forecasts. Table IV shows that initially the variations in all of the variables are typically explained by the variables’ own trends. That is to say，at the beginning，the historical trend of each variable explains a large part of its own variations. For the most part，after ten quarters，about 60 per cent of the variance in oil prices is explained by the variable itself which is indicative of its exogenous nature. On the other hand，oil revenue explained about 93 per cent of its own variations at the first quarter and about 20 percent at the 10th quarter. Moreover，variation in oil prices account for about 45 per cent of the variation in oil revenues starting at the second quarter and through to the tenth. This shows that the causality is running from oil prices to oil revenues. Similar results are also evident for government development and current expenditures. Over a time period，about 15-17 per cent of the variance in government expenditures (development and current) is accounted for by the variations in the oil revenues.Furthermore，looking at the variance decomposition in the government expenditures (development and current) it is observed that following their own variations and oil revenues，the LCPI account for a notable part of the expenditures’ variance. The CPI accounts for onefifth of the current expenditure variations and about 15 per cent of the development expenditure. This is quite a plausible result and very apparent in the case of current expenditure.On the other hand，it is worth noting that the other variable that also picks up a significant part of the variations in government development expenditure is the value of imports. It accounts for about 16 per cent.Looking at the variance decomposition of M2，it is apparent that a noticeable part of its variance is explained by the variance in the CPI (about 33 per cent)，even more than its own variations. Also，oil prices and oil revenue，respectively，account for about 23 and 13 per cent of its variations. These results suggest an important role for money supply.Moreover，over the time period，the results show that 25-45 per cent of the variance in the value of imports is accounted for by the variation in oil revenues alone. Other variables included in the model that exert significant influence on the behaviour of imports are the two types of government expenditure but in particular，the development expenditure.3.2. Impulse responsesFigure 1 displays the Impulse Response Functions，which are essentially the dynamic multipliers .Since the primary interest is to see the response of major macroeconomic variables to the shocks given to the oil revenues and then to the government expenditure，only tentime periods are reported. An inspection of Figure 1 reveals that innovation in the oil prices and hence oil revenue has a similar effect on most of the variables in the model. Generally，most of these variables show an increase in the first quarter. This increase continues in the second and third quarter and then it gradually tapers off over the successive quarters. The only exceptions are the CPI and the value of imports and M2. This may be attributable to the shortcomings in the data set used to estimate the V AR. Recall that LCPI，LM2 and LIMPORTS were found to be non-stationary in the level.3.3. Estimation of the vector error correction model Since most of the variables included in the model pertain to stationary time series data except LCPI，LM2 and LIMPORTS，Johansen’s test (1991，1995) was applied to check for cointegrating vectors. The test indicated that there are four cointegrating vectors. Therefore，a vector error correction model is warranted. A vector error correction model is a V AR that build-in cointegration. Each co-integrating equation adds the parameters associated with the term involving levels of the series which needs to be added to each equation in the V AR. There is a sequence of nested models in this framework. The Johansen test procedure computes the likelihood ratio for each added co-integrating equation.On the basis of Johansen’s test，a Vector error correction model (VECM) was estimated. Four co-integrating equations were estimated using the same seven variables that were used in the V AR. However，since the results of estimating the VECM do not have a direct interpretation，they are not reported here.3.4. Variance decompositionThe variance decomposition results corresponding to the estimated VECM are presented in Table V. They are based on the same ordering as was used in the V AR. Comparing these results with the V AR shows that while the qualitative nature of macroeconomic linkages remains almost the same，the intensity of interaction between the variables is significantly higher when co-integration has been accounted for. For example，looking at the variance decomposition of the oil revenues，it shows that variables like government development and current expenditures have a substantially larger share when compared with the V AR results which increased from 14 per cent to about 40 percent. Similarly，the oil revenue has picked up a relatively larger proportion of the variation in the government current expenditure as well as the value of imports，especially during the first 4-6 quarters. However，the results indicate that variations in LCPI，LM2 and LIMPORTS，after 7-10 quarters，are mainly explained by changes in oil revenue alone.In particular，the variance decomposition of LM2 indicates that a significant part of its variance is explained by the variations in oil revenues (about 46 per cent after 10 quarters)，even more than its own variations. On the other hand，contrary to the result from V AR，LCPI accounts for only 7 per cent.Empirically speaking，the VECM model shows a relatively higher degree of statistical significance. Theoretically speaking，this is because it yields a closer interaction between macroeconomic variables than what the V AR indicated.3.5. Impulse response functionsFigure 2 displays the impulse response functions corresponding to the VECM model. Figure 2 indicates that innovations in the oil prices and oil revenue have a similar impact on the variables included in the model. However，similar to the V AR，most of the variables show an increase for the first few quarters then it gradually tapers off over the successive quarters with the exception of CPI，value of imports and LM2.Comparing these IRFs with those corresponding to the V AR version reveals that it takes a little longer for the multipliers in the VECM version to reach the level of the V AR version. While they generally reached their peak in the V AR version in about 6-7 quarters，it took them 8-9 quarters to reach almost the same level in the VECM version.4. CONCLUSIONS AND SOME POLICYIMPLICATIONSThe primary goal of this paper was to investigate how macroeconomic variables react to fluctuations in the world oil prices. Therefore，two different versions have been estimated，namely，the V AR and the VECM. While the qualitative nature of macroeconomiclinkages remains almost the same in the two models，the intensity of interaction between the variables is significantly higher when cointegration has been accounted for. Thus，quantitatively the two models give results that are significantly different from each other. However，empirically，the VECM gives better results because it yields a closer interaction between macroeconomic variables than by the V AR estimation. The results corresponding to the VECM are also closer to common sense.Nevertheless，the two versions estimated indicated a notable degree of interrelation between the major macroeconomic variables. The results have highlighted the causality running from oil prices towards oil revenues and then towards government expenditure and other variables. However，further assessment of the relationship between these variables，based on orthogonal innovations，lead us to believe that oil price shocks do impact macroeconomic variables in Kuwait and in particular，via government development and current expenditures.The evaluation of the decomposition of the variance of government expenditures suggests that oil revenue fluctuations account for a notable part especially in the case of development expenditure.This result is not surprising and is actually consistent with what is expected in a country in which the government is the sole owner of the main national income source，the oil and gas industry. Thus，government expenditure becomes the major determinant of the level of economic activity and the mechanism by which the government caneffect the circular flow of income within the economy.What is surprising，however，is that one would expect the impact of oil shocks to be much stronger and in particular，in the case of current government expenditure. However，this may be explained by the fact that over the last three decades，the government has accumulated capital reserve (surplus) which is regularly used to finance current government commitments，especially in times of low oil revenue.Moreover，the results also point out the significance of the CPI in explaining a notable part of the variations of both types of government expenditure. On the other hand，the variations in value of imports are mostly accounted for by oil revenue fluctuations and then by the fluctuation in government development expenditures. These results suggest that fiscal policy appears to be effective in Kuwait as the oil shocks impact government expenditure and then government expenditure accounts for a relatively considerable part of the CPI and the value of import variations.However，the results from VECM approach indicate that a significant part of LM2 variance is explained by the variance in oil revenue. It reaches about 46 per cent in the 10th quarter even more than its own variations.This exercise has shown a high degree of sensitivity of the results to specification of the variables，i.e. the theoretical structure underlying the V AR. Part of this sensitivity may be attributable to shortcomings in the data set. However，for the most part，it reflects the limitations of。
国际服务贸易外文翻译文献
国际服务贸易外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)译文1：国际服务贸易与经济增长的理论与实证研究国际贸易与经济增长始终是国际经济学最生动的论题之一。
自20世纪80年代以来，世界经济由原来倚重自然资源和制造业的国别型经济正在向倚重信息资源和服务业的全球和区域型经济过渡。
随着1994年《服务贸易总协定》(GATS)的签署，服务贸易自由化的制度安排使得世界各国不可避免地卷入服务的国际分工和交换进程中,服务贸易和投资良性互动推动经济迅速增长已是不争的事实。
因此，服务贸易和投资对发达国家和发展中国家经济增长的推动作用是一个统计现象，还是带有普遍意义的经济增长规律？对此问题给予理论解释和实证分析无疑具有重要的政策涵义。
对于“国际服务贸易驱动经济增长”命题，理论分析认为，服务贸易不是经济增长的直接解释变量，但能通过影响主要增长要素和技术进步而间接作用于经济增长．只不过在不同的经济发展阶段其作用方式和作用机理不同。
在特定的经济发展阶段，服务贸易（包括投资）可对一国要素供给、技术进步产生静态和动态影响，进而促使其国内资源禀赋结构的变动。
企业按照比较优势的动态变化路径选择产业、技术结构和贸易模式，由此推动贸易结构、产业结构、技术结构的升级以及增长方式的转变，最终推进经济发展阶段向高级阶段的逐步转换。
从服务贸易和投资的作用机理看，服务贸易和投资通过物质资本积累效应、人力资本效应、技术进步效应、制度变迁效应、就业效应以及技术的外部性等路径影响一国的要素供给和技术进步，从而影响其资源禀赋结构的变动和贸易、产业结构的升级。
这种影响的动态效应大于静态效应，外部效应大于内部效应．且服务业FDI的技术外溢效应大于狭义服务贸易（包括跨境交付、过境消费和自然人流动）的技术外溢效应。
对服务贸易作用于经济增长内在机理的研究。
首先，对世界不同经济体和代表性国家进行因果关系检验。
结果表明，无论是世界总体、发达国家以及发展中国家，还是美国和中国均表现出：服务贸易与经济增长存有因果关系。
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国际服务贸易外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)译文1：国际服务贸易与经济增长的理论与实证研究国际贸易与经济增长始终是国际经济学最生动的论题之一。
自20世纪80年代以来，世界经济由原来倚重自然资源和制造业的国别型经济正在向倚重信息资源和服务业的全球和区域型经济过渡。
随着1994年《服务贸易总协定》(GATS)的签署，服务贸易自由化的制度安排使得世界各国不可避免地卷入服务的国际分工和交换进程中,服务贸易和投资良性互动推动经济迅速增长已是不争的事实。
因此，服务贸易和投资对发达国家和发展中国家经济增长的推动作用是一个统计现象，还是带有普遍意义的经济增长规律？对此问题给予理论解释和实证分析无疑具有重要的政策涵义。
对于“国际服务贸易驱动经济增长”命题，理论分析认为，服务贸易不是经济增长的直接解释变量，但能通过影响主要增长要素和技术进步而间接作用于经济增长．只不过在不同的经济发展阶段其作用方式和作用机理不同。
在特定的经济发展阶段，服务贸易（包括投资）可对一国要素供给、技术进步产生静态和动态影响，进而促使其国内资源禀赋结构的变动。
企业按照比较优势的动态变化路径选择产业、技术结构和贸易模式，由此推动贸易结构、产业结构、技术结构的升级以及增长方式的转变，最终推进经济发展阶段向高级阶段的逐步转换。
从服务贸易和投资的作用机理看，服务贸易和投资通过物质资本积累效应、人力资本效应、技术进步效应、制度变迁效应、就业效应以及技术的外部性等路径影响一国的要素供给和技术进步，从而影响其资源禀赋结构的变动和贸易、产业结构的升级。
这种影响的动态效应大于静态效应，外部效应大于内部效应．且服务业FDI的技术外溢效应大于狭义服务贸易（包括跨境交付、过境消费和自然人流动）的技术外溢效应。
对服务贸易作用于经济增长内在机理的研究。
首先，对世界不同经济体和代表性国家进行因果关系检验。
结果表明，无论是世界总体、发达国家以及发展中国家，还是美国和中国均表现出：服务贸易与经济增长存有因果关系。
发达经济体、中国的服务贸易是经济增长的原因；世界经济总体、发展经济体则表现出经济增长成为服务贸易的原因：美国的服务贸易出口是经济增长的原因，而经济增长是服务贸易进口的原因。
从这个意义上说，服务业的开放有利于一国经济增长，并且服务贸易和投资对经济增长的影响程度与特定的经济发展阶段相关。
其次，与已有的研究不同，为了进一步验证服务贸易和投资是如何作用于经济增长以及作用的强度，分别对美国和中国做了实证研究。
结果显示，美国服务贸易对经济增长的影响路径由强到弱依次为：就业效应、人力资本效应、物质资本效应。
技术效应、制度效应的影响作用相对较弱。
中国的实证分析结果可归纳为：服务出口对就业、物质资本积累和制度等效应的作用很大，而人力资本和技术效应影响不显著；服务进口额带来的技术效应、制度效应和就业效应大，人力资本效应和物质资本效应则不显著；服务业FDI的技术效应、人力资本效应和制度效应较为显著，就业效应和物质资本效应较小。
并且从作用强度看，总体上服务业FDI路径的影响作用大于服务进口，服务进口又大于服务出口。
根据实证检验可得出以下结论：狭义服务贸易通过服务的进出口路径对一国要素供给产生静态和动态影响，进而促使其国内资源禀赋结构的变动。
服务业对外直接投资是服务业中最重要的跨境交易方式之一，因而服务业国际直接投资是影响一国要素供给优势转换的另一条重要途径。
值得注意的是，上述渠道对处于不同经济发展阶段的国家影响不同，其影响效应的充分发挥要依赖于特定的约束条件。
各影响因素的投入与产出之间不是绝对的函数对应关系，而是互相影响形成无数反馈链共同作用于经济增长。
基于我国经济正处于工业化初级阶段向中级阶段转换时期的判断，以及现阶段服务贸易和投资的比较优劣势和区位优劣势的评判，认为中国应选择“偏保护的管理服务贸易”政策，并采取相应的政策措施。
包括：确立三次产业协调发展的科学发展观，为服务贸易奠定坚实的产业基础；制定服务贸易发展战略规划，分层次逐步开放服务贸易市场；准确把握服务产业的国际转移规律，改善服务业利用外资的区位环境。
原文1：The research of international service trade and economic growththeoryThe study of the relation between international trade and economic growth is one of the most active issues. Since 1980s, the world has been in transition from national economy orientating towards natural resources and manufacturing industry to global and regional economy orientating towards information resources and service industry. After the signature of GATS in1994, the institutional arrangements on liberalizing service trade result in a world-wide involvement division and exchanges of service trade, and it is undoubtedly that the positive interaction between service trade and investment leads to economic growth. But the theoretical research on service trade lags behind practice.Is it a statistic phenomenon or a universal rule of economic growth? To approach the above two issues from theoretical and empirical perspective is of great value to policy-making.For the proposition of that "International service trade will drive economic growth". Theoretical analysis shows that although service trade is not a direct interpretative variable to economic growth, it can effect economic growth indirectly through other growing factors and technology upgrade, but the ways and mechanisms are different in different stages. In a certain stage of economic development, service trade (including investment) will have static and dynamic effect on factors supply and technology upgrade in one county, which will lead to the domestic alteration of resources condition structure. It is the enterprises that select industry structure, technology structure and trade structure according to dynamic alteration way of comparative technology structure and trade structure, which will ultimately promote evolution of economic growth gradually. So far as operational mechanism of service trade and investment is concerned, service trade affects factors supply in one country by physical capital accumulating effect, human capital effect, technology upgrade effect, institutional transition effect, employment effect and externality of technology, then influences the upgrade of industrial structure, the upgrade of technological structure and the transition of mode of economic growth. It is obvious that dynamic effect is greater than static effect; that external effect is playing more important role than internal effect; and that technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment in service industry is greater thanthat of service trade in a narrow sense (including across-border supply, consumption abroad and movement of natural person).For the research of mechanism about how service trade drive economic growth. Firstly, the paper verifies the causality between service trade and economic growths concerning different economic bodies and the representative countries. The results show that there are causalities between international service trade and economic growth in the whole world, in the developed countries, in the US and in china. In the developing countries, service trade is the Granger cause of economic growth; In the whole world and the developing countries, economic growth is the Granger cause of service trade; In the US, service export is the Granger cause of economic growth, and economic growth is the Granger cause of service import. On this basis, it is concluded that the opening of service industry will benefit economic growth in one country. Secondly, in order to explore on how the service trade and investment act on economic growth, empirical studies are employed to explain the case of US and that of China. The results show that the routes by which service trade affects economic growth in the US can be rowed as follows from more significant to less: employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect, technology effect, institution effect. The results of empirical analysis of China can be summarized that: the routes by which service export affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: employment effect, physical capital effect, institution effect, human capital effect, technology effect; the routs by which service import affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, institution effect, employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect; the routes by which FDI in service affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, human capital effect, institution effect, employment effect, physical capital effect. Moreover, the effect of FDI in service is stronger than service import, and the effect of service import is stronger than service export.According to the empirical test in this paper, the conclusion can be drawn as follows: service trade in a narrow sense will have static and dynamic effects on factor supply in one country through import and export of service, FDI in service industry is one of the most important cross-border transactions and is another important channel which will affect the transition of advantages on factor supply in one country. It should be emphasized that the above-mentioned channels will have different effects on countries at different stages of economic development. Whether the rolescan be brought into play or not depends on given restraints. The input output of factors themselves cannot form a clear function, but will interact together and act on economic growth hand in hand through numerous feedback chain.Chinese economy is now undergoing transformation from elementary age to middle age of industrialization. Service trade and investment in current period have both advantages and disadvantages. Based on these judgments, we propose that China should pursue a policy favoring protectionism on management of service trade and adopt relevant countermeasures as follows. Scientific development view should be formed with an eye to harmonizing development of three industries so as to lay a solid industries foundation for service trade; The strategic programming should be stipulated and the market of service trade should be opened gradually; The rule of international transfer of service trade should be mastered and environment of utilizing foreign investment on service industry should be improved.译文2：服务贸易对经济增长的影响研究综述随着世界服务型经济特征的逐步凸显, 源于产业结构升级的服务贸易得到了迅速发展, 服务贸易的规模正在快速扩张。