123长沙市房地产价格影响因素分析与预测研究.docx

长沙市房地产价格影响因素分析与发展趋势研究Study on Price Factors and Prediction of Real EstateIn Changsha City摘要住房问题是关系人民幸福安康的关键问题，住房问题解决的好坏直接影响国民；经济的持续稳定发展和社会的安定团结，而住房问题的核心是房价问题，最近几年我国商品房价格快速上升，令普通工薪阶层“望房兴叹”。

特别是一些大中城市的房价更是扶摇直上，面对政府不断加强的宏观调控，房价增势未改。

即2010年01月07日国务院办公厅发布《关于促进房地产市场平稳健康发展的通知》后，2010年04月17日，国务院又紧接着发布《关于坚决遏制部分城市房价过快上涨的通知》，旨在进一步落实各地区、各有关部门的责任，坚决遏制部分城市房价过快上涨，切实解决城镇居民住房问题。

在号称“史上最严厉的调控政策”后，房地产市场似乎又从冬眠中弹出了脑袋，在近日举行的一个论坛上，北京远华集团董事长任志强、金典集团董事长张宝全、万通董事长冯仑均表达了房价会继续上涨的观点。

未来房价究竟是涨还是跌，每个人都有不同的判断和理由，我们不能因为这些房地产大佬的身份，而忽视其言论中的合理性；就如同我们也不必为一些所谓经济专家、独立机构发表房价下降论而沾沾自喜，我们需要的是一种基于事实的判断，造成房价变动的因素是什么房价可能会产生怎样的变化，作为有经济学背景和素养的知识型人才，在校研究生可以从理论和学术研究角度探索影响房价的因素以及对房价变化规律的探索。

长沙近年来经济持续快速发展，GDP和人均GDP都保持两位数以上的增长速度，较快的经济发展速度为房地产业的持续发展提供了良好平台。

2010年上半年住宅整体均价在4774元/平米左右，同比上涨25.9%；那么影响长沙房价上涨的主要因素是什么？长沙房价究竟是偏高、偏低还是自然增长?如果偏高，政府可以采取怎样的宏观调控措施来抑制房地产价格的过快上涨?分析长沙市房地产价格的主要影响因素，对长沙市房地产价格进行综合评价，成为一个值得研究的重大课题，目前这方面的研究还不多，本文试图在这方面做一些有益的探索。

全文共分五章：第一章系统考察了国内外关于房地产价格研究方面的成果，全面把握了有关房地产价格研究的前沿动态，为本论文研究奠定了基础；第二章系统地分析长沙市房地产业的发展背景，并对其发展现状作深入的统计分析；第三章分析影响长沙市房地产价格的主要因素；第四章建立灰色关联房价评价模型，并以此对长沙市房地产价格综合评价作实证研究；第五章就全文做全面的小结，并根据研究成果对政府宏观调控措施提出了建设性的建议。

本文主要结论和创新点：研究了影响长沙市房地产价格的主要因素及各因素对价格的影响程度；运用灰色关联理论构建房价综合评价模型，并对2003年——2009年长沙房地产价格进行了综合评价；运用层次分析(AHP)法获得了评价模型的指标权重；根据研究成果，提出了对长沙房地产业进行宏观调控的可行性对策。

本文的研究结果对于进一步研究其它城市房地产价格与其影响因素之间的关系及其他城市房地产价格综合评价，具有一定的参考价值。

但也存在许多不足，未来的研究还对评价指标和评价模型进行优化等方面加以改进，使研究结果具有更加广泛的指导意义。

关键词：房地产价格；影响因素；灰色关联模型；层次分析法ABSTRACTHousing problem, as the key problem, is essential to people's life, to the sustained and rapid development of economy as well as to the social stability. And the core of the housing problem is the estate price problem, In recent years, the estate pric in China, especially in some big or media-sized cities, rises so fast even under the strengthening macro-controlling from the government, which makes the ordinary wage earners impossible to afford it. Premier Wen Jia bao is in ten session of National People's Congress fifth conference government service report proposed explicitly must streng then the supervising and managing regulation suppression real estate price excessively quickly raise.Changsha city, whose GDP and per capita GDP keep growing very fast, has asustained and rapid growth of economy, which provides a wonderful platform to the development of the real estate industry. But what maybe the main factor for the rising house prices? Is it too high, too low or just natural? If it is too high, is there any measure that the government can take to control it? It is worthwhile to analyze the main factor of the rising house prices and make an estimate for the estate price in Changsha city. Since such study is not much, so this article will focus on this problem.The full text is divided into five chapters: In the first chapter we system inspected domestic and foreign about the real estate price research aspect achievement ,and has comprehensively grasped the related real estate price research front tendency, has laid the foundation for the present paper research. Second chapter systematically analyzes the Changsha real estate industry development background, and makes the thorough statistical analysis to its development present situation; the third chapter analysis affects the Changsha real estate price the primary factor. In the fourth chapter establishment gray associated house price appraisal model, and does the real diagnosis research by this to the Changsha real estate price quality synthetic evaluation. Fifth chapter makes the comprehensive subtotal on the full text, and put forward the constructive proposal according to the research results to the government macroeconomic regulation and control measure.This article main conclusion and innovation points can be listed as follows：It studied the primary factors that affected the Changsha real estate price and the influence of various factors on the price; using gray associated house price appraisal model evaluate estate price for 2003-2009 years in Changsha; Has obtained the appraisal model target weight using the analytic hierarchy (AHP)method; According to the research results, proposed carries on the macroeconomic; gviation and control to the Chang Sha real estate industry the feasible countermeasure.The achievements of this paper have certain valuable reference to other cities studying the relation between the house price and their influence factors and the real estate price quality synthetic evaluation. The future research might be targeted at such aspects as the optimization .of the indicator system, the selection of the model function, the expanse of the sample data, so as to make the result of the research to have the more extensive leading meaning.Key words: Estate price; The influence factors; Gray associated model; AHP目录第一章长沙市房地产发展现状 (1)1.1长沙市房地产发展背景 (1)1.1.1经济增长构筑发展良好平台 (1)1.1.2 产业结构不断调整 (1)1.1.3 固定资产投资额稳步增长 (2)1.1.4 城市居民可支配收入高 (3)1.1.5 房地产投资额逐年上涨 (4)1.2长沙市房地产现状分析 (4)1.2.1长沙房地产市场发展趋势 (5)1.2.22010年长沙房地产市场政策影响分析 (6)第二章长沙市房地产价格的影响因素分析 (9)2.1房地产价格形成的理论基础 (9)2.2.1 房地产的特征 (9)2.2.2 房地产价格的决定理论 (11)2.2影响价格的主要因素分析 (12)2.2.1 经济因素分析 (12)2.2.2心理因素分析 (13)2.2.3人口因素分析 (14)2.2.4政策因素分析 (15)2.2.5其他因素分析 (16)第三章长沙市房地产价格模糊评判及启示 (17)3.1基于FAHP的长沙房价模糊评判模型 (17)3.1.1长沙房地产价格预测指标体系 (17)3.1.2 指标权重的确定 (19)3.1.3 专家评判打分 (21)3.2研究启示及建议 (23)3.2.1 宏观调控长沙房地产行业的对策建议 (23)3.2.2 消费者购买房产的启示 (25)第四章研究总结 (27)4.1本文的主要研究结论 (27)4.2本文的不足之处 (27)4.3合作分工 (27)4.4致谢 (28)参考文献 (29)第一章 长沙市房地产发展现状1.1 长沙市房地产发展背景1.1.1经济增长构筑发展良好平台近三年来长沙GDP 保持快速增长，城市GDP 和人均GDP 都保持两位数以上的增长速度，较快的城市经济发展速度为房地产业的持续发展提供了良好平台。