经济决策定量 第二章Forecasting部分翻译
管理经济学--生意和经济的预测(1)-文档资料
The residuals form the detrended series
Basically, the trend has been partialled out
If a series is weakly dependent and is stationary about its trend, we will call it a trend-stationary process
Detrending
Adding a linear trend term to a regression is the same thing as using “detrended” series in a regression
Gives the Expected Direction
Quantitative Forecasting 2.7654 %
Gives the precise Amount
2002 South-Western Publishing
Time-Series Characteristics: Secular Trend and Cyclical Variation in Women’s Clothing Sales
Thus, this weaker form of stationarity requires only that the mean and variance are constant across time, and the covariance just depends on the distance across time
经济决策定量分析翻译
第二章预测未来是企业经济决策的一个基本方面。
未来的销售是经济预测中最重要的变量。
了解销售是预算和规划过程的一个先决条件。
人们开发出各种定量方法来预测变量的未来值，这些方法模型可以划分为三大类：1、利用过去的数据进行预测一个变量的历史模式可以用来识别和预测未来，通过从时间序列数据外推得到这些模式。
2、利用因果模型进行预测找出未知变量与一个或多个已知变量之间的关系。
利用已知变量的值去预测所需的变量值。
3、.利用统计数据进行预测定量陈述法用来表达主观概率判断。
这些方法可以合并预测的实际“击球率”并且能提供一个集体决策的表达式。
第三章定量分析方法在实现成本节约方面做得非常成功的一个商业决策领域是存货控制领域。
这个成功故事的主要原因在于存货代表了整个经济活动的大部分。
仅仅在美国，数千亿美元都是投资在存货上。
由于很大规模的存贮投资，即便存储控制有很小的提高，但也会导致极大的节约。
存储理论始于20世纪20年代，从此经历了几个阶段的发展。
一开始，它有非常简单的几个参数的模型来捕获关键因素。
后来，通过增加更多的参数，这些模型被建立成包含更多的细节。
渐渐地，概率模型在20世纪50年代被研发，用来描述难以预测需求和订货至交货时间的影响。
所有的模型遭遇到一个限制------它们在一段时间内仅仅处理一种产品。
真正的生活存贮人们面临的是管理项目的巨大变化，用充分的相互关系来形成一个管理问题。
在20世纪70年代早期，一个被称为物料需求计划（MRP)的技术开始得到使用。
后来，这个技术没有改变初始的条件，而被改名为制造资源计划（MRPⅡ）。
MRP的中心思想是不能停工待料，使得需要物料是能充分有效地提供。
最初的版本假设对最终产品的决定性需求，对订购数量进行简单的逆向工作，和安排组件与基本元件的提供。
逐渐扩展这些模型使它们更符合实际。
20世纪70年代后期80年代初，另外一场运动兴起改革了生产实践。
被更高利益成本（零库存）和日本一些成功企业的例子的刺激下，准时生产的概念变得流行起来。
经济评价基本术语英汉对照（精选五篇）
经济评价基本术语英汉对照（精选五篇）第一篇：经济评价基本术语英汉对照汉英对照经济评价基本术语备择方案AlternativeOpen 备选方案Option备选方案价值 Option Value备选方案评估 OptionAppraisal标准换算系数 Standard Conversion Factor , SCF补贴 Subsidy 不变价格 Constant Price不可外贸货物 Non-Tradable Goods财务补贴 Financial Subsidy 环境卫生 Environment Sanitation 换算系数 Conversion Factor汇率溢价 Foreign Exchange Premium 或有估价法 Contingent Valuation Method , CVM 货币的时间价值 Time Value of Money机会成本 Opportunity Cost 基准收益率 Hurdle Cut-Off Rate 计算单位 Numeraire加权平均资金成本 Weighted Average Cost of Capital , 年金价值 Annuities Value平均增量财务费用 Average Incremental Financial Cost , AIFC 平均增量成本 Average Incremental Cost , AIC平均增量经济费用Average Incremental Economic Cost , AIEC 评估 Appraisal 评价 Evaluation项目框架 Project Rramework 项目周期 Project Cycle 消费者剩余 Consumer Surplus 效果费用比 Effectiveness Cost Ratio 需求曲线 Demand Price 需求曲线 Demand Curve要求回报率Required Rate of Return, RRR 意愿调差评估法Contingent Valuation 隐含价值法Hedonic Method 财务分析Financial Analysis 财务价格 Financial Price财务净现值 Financial Net Present Value , FNPV 财务可持续性Financial Sustainability财务内部收益率 Financial Internal Rate of Return , FIRR 财务效益 Financial Benefit财务效益费用分析Financial Benefit –Cost Analysis 残值Residual Value偿债备付率Debt Service Coverage Ratio , DSCR 陈诉偏好Stated Preference 成本回收Cost Recovery成本有效性分析Cost Effectiveness Analysis 出口评价Export Parity Price到岸价格Cost , Insurance & Freight , C.I.F 等价年度费用Equivalent Annual Cost非外贸产出和收入Non-Traded Output and Input非外贸货物Non-Traded Goods 费用效果比 Cost Effectiveness Ratio 费用效果分析 Cost Effectiveness Analysis , CEA 费用效益分析Cost Benefit Analysis , CBA 分配分析 Distribution Analysis 福利费用 Welfare Cost福利效益 Welfare Benefit公共产品 Public Goods 供给价Supply Price官方汇率 Official Exchange Rate , OER规模经济 Economies of Scale 国民收入平减指数 GDP Deflator耗减补偿 Depletion Premium 核算单位 Unit of Account环境估价Environment Valuation 环境可持续性Environment SustainabilityWACC价格扭曲Price Distortion价格指数Price Index 交叉补贴CrossProject 无形的 Intangible息税前利润 Earnings Before Interest and Tax , EBIT 显示偏好Revealed Preference 现存价值 Existence Value现金流出（量）Cash Outflow , CO 现金流（量）Cash Flow , CF 现金流入（量）Cash Inflow , CI 现值 Present Value , PV 相对价格作用Relative Price effect 项目备选方案Project Option盈亏价值法 Break – Even Point 影响陈述 Impact Statement影子工作率 Shadow Wage Rate , SWR影子工资系数Shadow Wage Rate Factor , SWRF 影子汇率Shadow Exchange Rate影子汇率系数Shadow Exchange Rate Factor ,SERF 影子价格Shadow Price有项目WithToEquity 资本化价值 Capitalized Value 资本金 Equity资本金净利润率 Return On Equity , ROE 资产负债率 Liability On Asset Ratio , LOAR 资金成本 Resource Cost资金的财务机会成本Financial Opportunity Cost of Capital , FOCC资金的经济机会成本 Economic Opportunity Cost of Capital , EOCC资源成本 Resource Cost总投资收益率 Return On Investment , ROI最低可接受收益率Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return , MARR第二篇：地质年代术语英汉对照stratum 地层stratigraphic correlation 地层对比horizon 层位key bed 标志层barren bed 哑层lacuna 缺失hiatus 间断continuity 连续discontinuity 不连续conformity 整合unconformity 不整合angular unconformity 角度不整合para-unconformity平行不整合geochronologic unit 地质年代单位eon 宙era 代period 纪epoch 世stage 期chron 时chronostratigraphic unit 年代地层单位eonothem 宇erathem 界system 系series 统stage 阶chronozone 时带biostratigraphic unit 生物地层单位biostratigraphic zone 生物地层带lithostratigraphic unit 岩石地层单位group 群formation 组member 段bed 层geochronologic scale 地质年代表Phaneozoic Eon(Eonothem)显生宙（宇）Cainozoic Era(Erathem)新生代（界）Cenozoic Era(Erathem)新生代（界）Quaternary Period(System)第四纪（系）Holocene Epoch(Series)全新世（统）Pleistocene Epoch(Series)更新世（统）Tertiary Period(System)第三纪（系）Neogene Period(System)新第三纪（系）Pliocene Epoch(Series)上新世（统）Miocene Epoch(Series)中新世（统）Paleogene Period(System)老第三纪（系）Oligocene Epoch(Series)渐新世（统）Eocene Epoch(Series)始新世（统）Paleocene Epoch(Series)古新世（统）Mesozoic Era(Erathem)中生代（界）Cretaceous Period(System)白垩纪（系）Jurassic Period(System)侏罗纪（系）triassic Period(System)三叠纪（系）Palaeozoic Era(Erathem)古生代（界）Permian Period(System)二叠纪（系）Carboniferous Period(System)石炭纪（系）DevonianPeriod(System)泥盆纪（系）Silurian Period(System)志留纪（系）Ordovician Period(System)奥陶纪（系）Cambrian Period(System)寒武纪（系）Cryptozoic Eon(Eonothem)隐生宙（宇）Proterozoic Eon(Eonothem)元古宙（宇）Neoproterozoic Era(Erathem)新元古代（界）Sinian Period(System 震旦纪（系）Mesoproterozoic Era(Erathem)中元古代（界）Palaeoproterozoic Era(Erathem)古元古代（界）Archaean Eon(Eonothem)太古宙（宇）Precambrian 前寒武纪第三篇：会计术语英汉对照会计名词术语英汉对照（仅供参考，欢迎指正和补充）account title 会计科目，账户名称 account 账户accounting circle 会计循环accounting entity assumption 会计主体假设accounting period assumption 会计分期假设accounting process 会计流程accounting report 会计报告 accounts payable 应付账款accounts receivable turnover ratio 应收账款周转率accounts receivable 应收账款accrual-basis accounting 应计制会计，权责发生制会计accrued accounting 应计制会计 accrued revenues 应计收入accumulated depreciation 累计折旧 adjusting entries 调整分录administrative expenses 管理费用 advances 预付款aging schedule 账龄分析表allowance for doubtful accounts 坏账准备allowance for returns 备抵销售退回 asset 资产average collection period平均收款期 bad debts expense 坏账费用 balance sheet 资产负债表 bank account 银行存款bank reconciliation银行存款余额调节 bank statement 银行对账单book of original entry 原始分录簿book value 账面价值bookkeeping 簿记business document 业务凭证 calendar year 日历carrying value 账面价值，现存价值cash(net)realizable value 可变现净值 cash advance 预付现金cash count sheet 现金盘点表cash disbursement 现金支出cash discount 现金折扣 cash inflows 现金流入 cash outflows 现金流出 cash over or shot 现金溢缺cash payments journal 现金支出分录簿 cash receipt 现金收入cash receipts journal 现金收入分录簿 cash refund 现金折扣cash register receipt 收款机收据（收银条）cash 现金cash-basis accounting 现金制会计，收付实现制会计 cashier 收银员，出纳chart of accounts 会计科目表 check register 支票登记簿 check 支票claim 索取权、求偿权 claimer 索取者、求偿权人classified balance sheet 分类资产负债表 closing entries 结账分录 closing the book 结账 common stock 普通股 comparability 可比性compensating balances 补偿性余额，补偿性最低存款额compound entry 复合分录conceptual framework 概念框架conservatism 稳健性consistency 一致性contra asset account 资产对销账户，资产备抵账户contra-revenue account 收入抵消账户 corporation 公司correcting entries 更正分录 cost of goods sold 销货成本 cost principle 成本计价原则 credibility 可靠性credit balance 贷方余额 credit(s)贷，贷方current assets 流动资产 current liability 流动负债 current ratio 流动比率current replacement cost 现行重置成本 dealership 代理商debit balance 借方余额 debit(s)借，借方debt to total assets ratio 资产负债率 debt(s)债务decision usefulness 决策有用性 deferrals 递延项目deposit slip 存款单 deposit ticket 存款单deposits in transit 在途存款depreciation expense 折旧费用dishonor(note)拒绝承兑（票据）dividend 股利double-entry system 复式记账法 due date 到期due from sb.应收某人 due from sb.应收某人earnings per share 每股盈余economic entity assumption 经济主体假设 economic event 经济事项electronic funds transfer 电子资金转账 ending balance 期末余额 endorsement 背书 enter 登记 expense 费用expired cost 已耗成本factor 客账经纪商，代理商faithful representation 忠实表述，如实反映 feedback value 反馈价值Financial Accounting Standards Board(FASB)（美国）财务会计准则委员会financial statements 财务报表 finished goods 产成品first-in, first-out(FIFO)先进先出法fiscal year 会计，财政FOB destination 目的地交货 FOB shipping point 寄发地交货 FOB 离岸价格For Deposit Only 仅限转账 freight cost 运费general journal 普通分录簿Generally Accepted Accounting Standards(GAAP)公认会计准则going concern assumption 持续经营假设going-concern assumption 持续经营假设 grace period宽限期 gross profit 毛利guaranteed debt 担保债券 honor(note)承兑（票据）imprest system 定额备用金制度 income from operations 营业利润 income sheet 利润表income summary 损益汇总income tax 所得税intangible assets 无形资产 interim period 中期International Accounting Standards Board(IASB)国际会计准则委员会 inventory count 存货盘点，盘存inventory summary sheets 库存汇总表 inventory turnover 存货周转率 investor 投资者journal 分录簿，日记账journalize 登分录簿，记日记账last-in, first-out(LIFO)后进先出法 lease liability 租赁负债 ledger 分类账 liability 负债liquidity 流动性，变现能力long-term investment 长期投资long-term liability 长期负债lower of cost or market 成本与市价孰低法 market value 市场价值matching principle 匹配原则 materiality 重要性merchandise inventory 库存商品 miscellaneous expense 杂费monetary measurement assumption货币计量假设 monetary unit assumption 货币单位假设 money down 现金，现款 mortgage 抵押借款 net assets 净资产 net income 净收益 neutral 中立性nominal account 虚账户 note payable 应付票据 note(s)附注obligations 承付款项 on account 赊账on demand 见票即付operating expenses 营业费用 operating income 营业利润other expenses and losses 其他费用和损失other revenues and gains 其他收入和利得 outstanding checks 未兑现支票 owed to sb.应付、亏欠某人 paid-in capital 投入资本partnership 合伙企业，合伙制 past-due 逾期，过期未付periodic inventory system 定期盘存制 permanent account 永久性账户perpetual inventory system 永续盘存制 petty cash fund 小额现金基金 postdated check 未到期支票 posting 过账predictive value预测价值 prepaid expenses 预付费用 prepaid insurance 预付保险profit margin percentage 销售利润率profitability 盈利能力promissory note 本票proprietorship 独资企业，业主制purchase invoice 购货发票purchases journal 购货分录簿 raw meterials 原材料 real account 实账户 relevance 相关性 reliability 可靠性remittance advice 汇款通知restrictive endorsement 限制性背书 retailer 零售商retained earnings statement 留存盈余表 retained earnings 留存盈余 return on assets 总资产收益率return on equity 权益收益率，净资产收益率revenue recognition principle 收入确认原则 revenue 收入reversing entries 转会分录 ring up 把款项（金额）记入 sale on credit 赊销，信用销售 sales discount 销售折扣 sales journal 销货分录簿sales return and allowance 销售退回和折让sales slip 销售单scrap value 残值Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC)（美国）证券交易委员会selling expenses 销售费用 service revenue 服务收入 simple entry 简单分录 solvency 偿债能力source document 原始凭证 special journal 特种分录簿specific identification 个别认定法，个别计价法statement of cash flows 现金流量表stockholders’ equity 股东权益 subsidiary ledger 明细分类账 supplies（日常）用品 taxes payable 应付税费temporary account 暂时性账户three-column form of account 三栏式账户time period assumption 会计分期假设 treasurer 财务主管，出纳 trial balance 试算平衡 uncollectable(s)坏账uncollected account expense 坏账费用 unearned revenue 预收收入，未实现收入 unexpired cost 未耗成本 unexpired cost 未耗用成本 verifiable 可核性，可验证性 voucher register 付款凭单登记簿voucher system 付款凭单制度wage payable 应付职工薪酬wholesaler 批发商work in process 在产品work sheet 工作底稿working capital 营运资本 working paper 工作底稿 write-off 冲销第四篇：英汉对照计量经济学术语计量经济学术语A 校正R2（Adjusted R-Squared）：多元回归分析中拟合优度的量度，在估计误差的方差时对添加的解释变量用一个自由度来调整。
工程管理专业英语翻译
1.2 Major Types of ConstructionSince most owners are generally interested in acquiring only a specific type of constructed facility, they should be aware of the common industrial practices for the type of construction pertinent to them [1]. Likewise, the construction industry is a conglomeration of quite diverse segments and products. Some owners may procure a constructed facility only once in a long while and tend to look for short term advantages. However ,many owners require periodic acquisition of new facilities and/or rehabilitation of existing facilities. It is to their advantage to keep the construction industry healthy and productive. Collectively, the owners have more power to influence the construction industry than they realize because, by their individual actions, they can provide incentives for innovation, efficiency and quality in construction [2]. It is to the interest of all parties that the owners take an active interest in the construction and exercise beneficial influence on the performance of the industry.In planning for various types of construction, the methods of procuring professional services, awarding construction contracts, and financing the constructed facility can be quite different. For the purpose of discussion, the broad spectrum of constructed facilities may be classified into four major categories, each with its own characteristics.Residential Housing ConstructionResidential housing construction includes single-family houses, multi-family dwellings, and high-rise apartments [3]. During the development and construction of such projects, the developers or sponsors who are familiar with the construction industry usually serve as surrogate owners and take charge, making necessary contractual agreements for design and construction, and arranging the financing and sale of the completed structures [4]. Residential housing designs are usually performed by architects and engineers, and the construction executed by builders who hire subcontractors for the structural, mechanical, electrical and other specialty work. An exception to this pattern is for single-family houses as is shown in Figure 1-2, which may be designed by the builders as well.The residential housing market is heavily affected by general economic conditions, tax laws, and the monetary and fiscal policies of the government. Often, a slight increase in total demand will cause a substantial investment inconstruction, since many housing projects can be started at different locations by different individuals and developers at the same time [5]. Because of the relative ease of entry, at least at the lower end os the market, many new builders are attracted to the residential housing construction. Hence, this market is highly competitive, with potentially high risks as well as high rewards.Figure1-2 Residential Housing Construction (courtesy of caterpillar, Inc) Institutional and Commercial Building Construction Institutional and commercial building construction encomprasses a great variety of project types and sizes, such as schools and universities, medical clinics and hospitals, recreational facilities and sports stadiums, retail chain stores and large shopping centers, warehouse and light manufacturing plants, and skyscrapers for offices and hotels, as is shown in Figure1-3 [6]. The owners of such buildings may or may not be familiar with construction industry practices, but they usually are able to select competent professional consultants and arrange the financing of the constructed facilities themselves. Specialty architects and engineers are often engaged for designing a specific type of building, while the builders or general contractors undertaking such projects may also be specialized in only that type of building.Because of the higher costs and greater sophistication of institutional and commercial buildings in comparison with residential housing, this market segment is shared by fewer competitors [7]. Since the construction of some of these buildings is a long process which once started will take some time to proceed until completion, the demand is less sensitive to general economic conditions than that for speculative housing. Consequently, the owners may confront an oligopoly of general contractors who compete in the same market. In an oligopoly situation, only a limited number of competitors exist, and a firm’s price for services may be based in part on part on its competitive strategies in the local market.Specialized Industrial ConstructionSpecialized industrial construction usually involves very large scale projects, with a high degree of technological complexity, such as oil refineries, steel mills, chemical processing plants and coal-fired or nuclear power plants, as is shown in Figure1-4 [8]. The owners usually are deeply involved in thedevelopment of a project, and prefer to work with designers-builders such that the total time for the completion of the project can be shortened. They also want to pick a team of designers and builders with whom the ownerhas developed good working relations over the years.Figure1-3 Construction of the PPG Building in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania ( courtesy of PPG Industries, Inc)Figure1-4 Construction of a Benzene Plant in L……( courtesy of Manitowoc Company, Inc)Although the initiation of such projects is also affected by the state of the economy, long range demand forecasting is the most important factor since such projects are capital intensive and require considerable amount of planning and construction time [9].Governmental regulation such as the rulings of the Environmental Protection Agency and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the United States can also profoundly influence decisions on these projects.Infrastructure and Heavy ConstructionInfrastructure and heavy construction includes projects such as highways, mass transit systems, tunnels, bridges, pipelines, drainage systems and sewage treatment plants, as is shown in Figure1-5. Most of these projects are publicly owned and therefore financed either through bonds or taxes. This category of construction is characterized by a high degree of mechanization, which has gradually replaced some labor intensive operations.The engineers and builders engaged in infrastructure construction are usually highly specialized since each segment of the market requires different types of skills [10]. However, demands for different segments of infrastructure and heavy construction may shift with saturation in some segments. For example, as the available highway construction projects are declining, some heavy construction contractors quickly move their work force and equipment into the field of mining where jobs are available.Figure1-5 Construction of the Dame Point Bridge in Jacksonville, Florida(courtesy of Mary Lou Maher)Wordsconglomeration 混合物，聚集 infrastructure and heavy construction 重大基础项rehabilitation 修复目建设disincentive 抑制，抑制因素 procure 获得spectrum 波谱，光谱，范围 incentive 动机surrogate 代理，替代 innovation 创新architect 建筑师 residential housing construction 住宅类房fiscal 财政的屋建设entry 进入，编入 take charge 负责clinic 诊所 execute 执行stadium 露天大型体育场 substantial 实质的、重大的sophistication 复杂 recreational 娱乐的construction industry 建筑业 retail 零售high-rise apartments 高层公寓 proceed 开展，进行institution and commercial building segment 部分，份额construction 办公和商业用房建设 single-family house 独户住宅oligopoly 垄断，求过于供 professional consultant 专业咨询人士confront 面对 general contractor 总承包商infrastructure 基础设施 initiation 启动pipeline 管道 strategy 策略specialized industrial construction drainage 排水系统专业化工业项目建设 saturation 饱和Notes[1] 全句可译为：由于大多数业主通常只对获得某种特定类型的建筑物感兴趣，因而他们应当对适合于他们的建设类型的实物有着一定的了解。
预测(Forecasting)
预测的定义预测（forecasting）是预计未来事件的一门艺术，一门科学。
它包含采集历史数据并用某种数学模型来外推与将来。
它也可以是对未来的主观或直觉的预期。
它还可以是上述的综合，即经由经理良好判断调整的数学模型。
进行预测时，没有一种预测方法会绝对有效。
对一个企业在一种环境下是最好的预测方法，对另一企业或甚至本企业内另一部门却可能完全不适用。
无论使用何种方法进行预测，预测的作用也是有限的，并不是完美无缺。
但是，几乎没有一家企业可以不进行预测而只是等到事情发生时再采取行动，一个好的短期或长期的经营规划取决于对公司产品需求的预测。
[编辑]预测的类型按在规划未来业务方面企业使用可分三种类型的预测：经济预测（economic forecasts）、技术预测(technological forecasts)、需求预测（demand forecasts）。
1、经济预测（economic forecasts）,通过预计通货膨胀率、货币供给、房屋开工率及其它有关指标来预测经济周期。
2、技术预测(technological forecasts),即预测会导致产生重要的新产品，从而带动新工厂和设备需求的技术进步。
3、需求预测（demand forecasts），为公司产品或服务需求预测。
这些预测，也叫销售预测，决定公司的生产、生产能力及计划体系，并使公司财务、营销、人事作相应变动。
按它包含的时间跨度来分类，也有三种分类：短期预测、中期预测、长期预测1、短期预测。
短期预测时间跨度最多为1年，而通常少于3个月。
它用于购货、工作安排、所需员工、工作指定和生产水平的计划工作。
2、中期预测。
中期预测的时间跨度通常是从3个月到3年。
它用于销售计划、生产计划和预算、现金预算和分析不同作业方案。
3、长期预测。
长期预测的时间跨度通常为3年及3年以上。
它用于规划新产品、资本支出、生产设备安装或天职，及研究与发展。
中期预测和长期预测与短期预测的区别主要体现在以下三个方面：第一，中长期预测要处理更多的综合性问题并主要为产品、工厂、工序的管理决策提供支持；第二，短期预测采用的方法通常与长期预测采用的方法不同。
forcast指标 -回复
forcast指标-回复什么是经济预测指标？经济预测指标是用来预测经济趋势和未来经济表现的数据和指标。
这些指标可以包括各种经济数据，如生产总值（GDP）、就业数据、消费者物价指数等。
经济预测指标是政府、学术机构和私人企业用来预测经济增长、通货膨胀、失业率等重要经济指标的关键工具。
为什么需要经济预测指标？经济预测指标对于政府、企业和个人来说都非常重要。
政府需要这些指标来制定经济政策，以促进经济增长、控制通货膨胀、减少失业率等。
企业需要这些指标来预测市场需求和制定战略，以便更好地规划生产和销售。
个人也可以利用这些指标来做出智能的投资决策，减少风险，获得更好的回报。
哪些是常见的经济预测指标？几个常见的经济预测指标包括GDP、CPI、失业率和利率。
GDP是衡量一个国家经济总产出的指标，可以显示经济增长的速度和趋势。
CPI是消费者物价指数，反映价格变动对消费者购买力的影响，可以用来预测通货膨胀。
失业率是用来衡量劳动力市场上的就业情况，通常可以预测经济的健康程度。
利率则是政府或央行设置的利率，对经济和货币市场有重大影响，可以用来预测经济增长和投资状况。
如何使用经济预测指标？使用经济预测指标需要综合考虑各个指标之间的关系和趋势。
首先，需要了解每个指标的定义和影响因素，以及其与其他指标之间的关系。
然后，可以通过观察历史数据和分析趋势来预测将来的经济表现。
此外，重要的是要关注来自政府和其他机构的经济预测报告，以了解专家对经济的观点和预测。
经济预测指标的局限性是什么？尽管经济预测指标对决策和规划非常有帮助，但它们也有一定的局限性。
首先，经济预测本质上是一种推测，无法100准确地预测未来。
其次，经济预测指标只能提供关于经济发展的一部分信息，无法完全反映经济的复杂性和不确定性。
另外，过度依赖经济预测指标可能会导致盲目的决策，忽视其他重要因素的影响。
经济预测指标的重要性和应用尽管经济预测指标存在一定的局限性，但它们仍然是经济决策和规划的重要工具。
BusinessandEconomicForecasting
3. Surveys
Common Survey Problems
New Products have no • Sample bias--
historical data -- Surveys
» telephone, magazine
can assess interest in new
• Models differ in accuracy, which is often based on the square root of the average squared forecast error over a series of N forecasts and actual figures
The choice of a particular forecasting method depends on several criteria:
• costs of the forecasting method compared with
its gains
• complexity of the relationships among variables • time period involved • accuracy needed in forecast • the lead time between receiving information and
LAGGING INDICATORS
*Handbook of Cyclical Indicators, 1984
» Prime rate (+12.2)
» Duration of unemployment (+4.4)
Questions
Why are contracts and orders for plant and equipment appropriate leading indicators?
马歇尔经济学原理第二章翻译
马歇尔经济学原理第二章翻译【原创实用版】目录1.马歇尔的《经济学原理》概述2.马歇尔《经济学原理》第二章的内容提要3.马歇尔《经济学原理》第二章的翻译版本推荐4.马歇尔《经济学原理》第二章的阅读体验正文马歇尔的《经济学原理》是继亚当·斯密《国富论》之后最重要的经济学著作之一，也是剑桥学派（新古典学派）创始人马歇尔的代表作。
全书名：《经济学原理》(principles,of,economics)。
马歇尔在书中阐述了经济学说，被认为是英国古典政治经济学的继续和发展。
第二章是马歇尔《经济学原理》中的一个重要章节。
本章主要讨论了经济学的基本概念和原理，包括价值、财富、货币、资本、劳动力等方面。
通过对这些概念的阐述，马歇尔为读者建立了一个经济学的基本框架，为后面的章节奠定了基础。
目前，市面上有许多马歇尔《经济学原理》的翻译版本。
其中，曼昆的《经济学原理》翻译版本比较受欢迎。
这个版本写得非常通俗易懂，不像其他作者的那么难懂。
此外，朱志泰翻译的《经济学原理》马歇尔版本也受到了一些读者的喜爱。
这个版本在翻译过程中保留了马歇尔原有的语言风格和表达方式，更适合喜欢原汁原味的读者。
阅读马歇尔《经济学原理》第二章，不仅可以帮助读者理解经济学的基本概念和原理，还可以领略到马歇尔作为一位杰出经济学家的思想魅力。
在阅读过程中，读者可以感受到马歇尔对经济学的深刻理解和独特见解。
同时，通过学习本章内容，读者还可以为后续学习打下坚实的基础。
总之，马歇尔的《经济学原理》第二章是一篇重要的经济学文章，对于学习经济学的人来说是必不可少的。
在众多翻译版本中，曼昆和朱志泰的版本都值得一读。
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经济决策定量第二章Forecasting部分翻译
Forecasting the future is a fundamental aspect of business decision making.Future sale is the most important variable in business forecasts.Knowledge about sales is a prerequisite to the budgetary and planning process.
预测未来是企业制定决策的一个基本方面。
未来的销售是在业务预测中最重要的变量。
有关销售知识是预算和规划过程的一个先决条件。
1.Forecasting using past data
The historical patterns of a variable are identified and projected into the future.These patterns are abtained through extrapolation from time series data.
1.用过去的数据预测
一个变量的历史模式可以用来识别和预测未来。
这些模式是通过外推法从时间序列数据。
2-Forecasting using causal models
A relationship is found between the unknown variable and one or more other known variables. The values of the known variables are then used to predict the value of the variable of interest.
2.用因果模型预测
可以从未知的变量与一个或多个已知的变量发现数值关系。
使用已知变量的值然后用于预测的所需的变量值。
3.Forecasting using judgment
Quantitative representations are used to express judgments in terms of subjective probabilities. These methods can incorporate the forecaster’s actual “batting average”and may provide a way to express collective judements.
In this chapter,we will survey the forecasting methods commonly used in each of these three categories.
3.主观判断来预测
定量表示法用来表达主观概率判断。
这些方法可以纳入预测者的实际平均成功率，而且可能会提供一个表达集体决策的方法。
在这一章，我们将研究以上三个模型中常用的预测方法。
A time series is a numerical sequence in which individual values are generated at regular intervals of time. The goal of time series analysis is to identify the swings and fluctuations of a time series and then to sort them into various categories by the arithmetic manipulation of the numerical values abtained.
时间序列是其中的单个值产生规律的间隔时间的数值序列。
时间序列分析的目标是找出波动和波动的时间序列，然后把它们划分为各种类别由数值导出的算术操作。
Several models can be used to characterize time series.The classical model used by economists provides the clearest explanation of the four components of time series variation, which are secular trend,cyclical movement,seasonal fluctuation,and irregular variation.These components can be related to the forecast variable by mathematical equations.The forecast variable is denoted b the symbol Y t , where the subscript t refers to a period of time.
几种模型可以用于时间序列的特点。
经济学家们所使用的经典模型提供了清晰的解释的四个组成部分的时间系列变异，即长期趋势、周期性运动、季节性波动和不规则变化。
这些组件可以与有关的预测变量的数学方程。
预测的变量用公式Yt表示，下标t 在这里指的是一段时间。
The classical time series model originally used by economics combines the four components of time series variation,
Yt=Tt * Ct *St * It
经济学家最初所用的典型时间序列模型包括以下四个部分。