供应链风险管理【外文翻译】
毕业论文外文翻译
原文
Supply Chain Risk Management
D.L. Olson and D. Wu
G lobal competition, technological change, and continual search for competitive advantage have motivated risk management in supply chains.1 Supply chains are often complex systems of networks, reaching hundreds or thousands of participants from around the globe in some cases (Wal-Mart or Dell). The term has been used both at the strategic level (coordination and collaboration) and tactical level (management
of logistics across functions and between businesses).2 In this sense, risk management can focus on identification of better ways and means of accomplishing organizational objectives rather than simply preservation of assets or risk avoidance.
Supply chain risk management is interested in coordination and collaboration
of processes and activities across functions within a network of organizations. Tang provided a framework of risk management perspectives in supply chains.3 Supply chains enable manufacturing outsourcing to take advantages of global relative advantages, as well as increase product variety. There are many risks inherent in this more open, dynamic system.
Supply Chain Risk Management Process
One view of a supply chain risk management process includes steps for risk identification,
risk assessment, risk avoidance, and risk mitigation.4 These structures for handling risk are compatible with Tang’s list given above, but focus on the broader aspects of the process.
Risk Identification
Risks in supply chains can include operational risks and disruptions. Operational risks involve inherent uncertainties for supply chain elements such as customer demand, supply, and cost. Disruption risks come from disasters (natural in the form of floods, hurricanes, etc.; man-made in the form of terrorist attacks or wars) and from economic crises (currency reevaluations, strikes, shifting market prices). Most quantitative analyses and methods are focused on operational risks. Disruptions are more dramatic, less predictable, and thus are much more difficult to model. Risk management planning and response for disruption are usually qualitative.
Risk Assessment
Theoretically, risk has been viewed as applying to those cases where odds are known, and uncertainty to those cases where odds are not known. Risk is a preferable basis for decision making, but life often presents decision makers with cases of uncertainty. The issue is further complicated in that perfectly rational decision
makers may have radically different approaches to risk. Qualitative risk management depends a great deal on managerial attitude towards risk. Different rational individuals are likely to have different response to risk avoidance, which usually is inversely related to return, thus leading to a tradeoff decision. Research into cognitive psychology has found that managers are often insensitive to probability estimates of possible outcomes, and tend to ignore possible events that they consider to be unlikely.5 Furthermore, managers tend to pay little attention to uncertainty involved with positive outcomes.6 They tend to focus on critical performance targets, which makes their response to risk contingent upon context.7 Some approaches to theoretical decision making prefer objective treatment of risk through quantitative scientific measures following normative ideas of how humans should make decisions. Business involves an untheoretical construct, however, with high levels of uncertainty (data not available) and consideration of multiple (often conflicting) factors, making qualitative approaches based upon perceived managerial risk more appropriate.
Because accurate measures of factors such as probability are often lacking, robust strategies (more likely to enable effective response under a wide range of circumstances) are often attractive to risk managers. Strategies are efficient if they enable a firm to deal with operational risks efficiently regardless of major disruptions.
Strategies are resilient if they enable a firm to keep operating despite major disruptions. Supply chain risk can arise from many sources, including the following:8
● Political events
● Product availability
● Distance from source
● Industry capacity
● Demand fluctuation
● Changes in technology
● Changes in labor markets
● Financial instability
● Management turnover
Risk Avoidance
The oldest form of risk avoidance is probably insurance, purchasing some level of financial security from an underwriter. This focuses on the financial aspects of risk, and is reactive, providing some recovery after a negative experience. Insurance is not the only form of risk management used in supply chains. Delta Airlines insurance premiums for terrorism increased from $2 million in 2001 to $152 million in 2002.9 Insurance focuses on financial risks. Other major risks include loss of customers due to supply change disruption.
Supply chain risks can be buffered by a variety of methods. Purchasing is usually assigned the responsibility of controlling costs and assuring continuity of supply. Buffers in the form of inventories exist to provide some risk reduction, at a cost of higher inventory holding cost. Giunipero and Al Eltantawy compared traditional
practices with newer risk management approaches.10 The traditional practice, relying upon extra inventory, multiple suppliers, expediting, and frequent supplier changes suffered from high transaction costs, long purchase fulfillment cycle times, and expensive rush orders. Risk management approaches, drawing upon practices such as supply chain alliances, e-procurement, just-in-time delivery, increased coordination and other techniques, provides more visibility in supply chain operations.
There may be higher prices incurred for goods, and increased security issues, but methods have been developed to provide sound electronic business security. Risk Mitigation
Tang provided four basic risk mitigation approaches for supply chains.11 These focus on the sources of risk: management of uncertainty with respect to supply, to demand, to product management, and information management. Furthermore, there are both strategic and tactical aspects involved. Strategically, network design can enable better control of supply risks. Strategies such as product pricing and rollovers can control demand to a degree. Greater product variety can strategically protect against product risks. And systems providing greater information visibility across supply chain members can enable better coping with risks. Tactical decisions include supplier selection and order allocation (including contractual arrangements); demand control over time, markets, and products; product promotion; and information sharing, vendor managed inventory systems, and collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment.
Supply Management
A variety of supplier relationships are possible, varying the degree of linkage between vendor and core organizations. Different types of contracts and information exchange are possible, and different schemes for pricing and coordinating schedules. Supplier Selection Process
Supplier (vendor) evaluation is a very important operational decision. There are decisions selecting which suppliers to employ, as well as decisions with respect to
quantities to order from each supplier. With the increase in outsourcing and the opportunities provided by electronic business to tap world-wide markets, these decisions are becoming ever more complex. The presence of multiple criteria in these decisions has long been recognized.12 A probabilistic model for this decision has been published to include the following criteria:13
1. Quality personnel
2. Quality procedure
3. Concern for quality
4. Company history
5. Price relative to quality
6. Actual price
7. Financial ability
8. Technical performance
9. Delivery history
10. Technical assistance
11. Production capability
12. Manufacturing equipment
Some of these criteria overlap, and other criteria may exist for specific supply chain decision makers. But clearly there are many important aspects to selecting suppliers.
Supplier Order Allocation
Operational risks in supply chain order allocation include uncertainties in demands, supply yields, lead times, and costs. Thus not only do specific suppliers need to be selected, the quantities purchased from them needs to be determined on a recurring basis.
Supply chains provide many valuable benefits to their members, but also create problems of coordination that manifest themselves in the “bullwhip” effect.14 Information system coordination can reduce some of the negative manifestations of the bullwhip effect, but there still remains the issue of profit sharing. Decisions that are optimal for one supply chain member often have negative impacts of the total profitability of the entire supply chain.15
Demand Management
Demand management approaches include using statistics in models for identification of an optimal portfolio of demand distributions16 and economic models to select strategies using price as a response mechanism to change demand.17 Other strategies include shifting demand over time, across markets, or across products. Demand management of course is one of the aims of advertising and other promotional activities. However,it has long been noted as one of the most difficult things to predict over time.
Product Management
An effective strategy to manage product risk is variety, which can be used to increase market share to serve distinct segments of a market. The basic idea is to diversify products to meet the specific needs of each market segment. However, while this would be expected to increase revenues and market share, it will lead to increase manufacturing costs and inventory costs. Various ways to deal with the potential inefficiencies in product variety include Dell’s make-to-order strategy. Supply Chain Disruption
Tang classified supply chain vulnerabilities as those due to uncertain economic cycles, customer demand, and disasters. Land Rover reduced their workforce by over one thousand when a key supplier went insolvent. Dole was affected by Hurricane Mitch hitting their banana plantations in Central America in 1998. September 11, 2001 suspended air traffic, leading Ford Motor Company to close five plants for several days.18 Many things can disrupt supply chains. Supply chain disruptions have been found to negatively impact stock returns for firms suffering them.19
Supply Chain Risks
Recent research into supply chain risk covers many topics.
New Technology Risk
Golda and Phillipi20 considered technical and business risk components of the supply chain. Technical risks relate to science and engineering, and deal with the uncertainties of research output. Business risks relate to markets, human responses to products and/or related services. At Intel, three risk mitigation strategies were considered to deal with the risks associated with new technologies:
1. Partnerships, with associated decisions involving who to partner with, and at what stage of product development
2. Pursue extendable solutions, evolutionary products that will continue to offer value as new technical breakthroughs are gained
3. Evaluate multiple options to enable commercialization
Partner Selection Risk
Partner (to include vendor) evaluation is a very important operational decision. Important decisions include which vendors to employ and quantities to order from each vendor. With the increase in outsourcing and the opportunities provided by electronic business to tap world-wide markets, these decisions are becoming ever more complex. The presence of multiple criteria in these decisions has long been recognized.21
Outsourcing Risks
Other risks are related to partner selection, focusing specifically on the additional risks associated with international trade. Risks in outsourcing can include:22
● Cost – unforeseen vendor selection, transition, or management
●Lead time –delay in production start-up, manufacturing process, or transportation
● Quality – minor or major finishing defects, component fitting, or structural Defects Outsourcing has become endemic in the United States, especially information technology to India and production to China.23 Risk factors include:
● Ability to retain control
● Potential for degradation of critical capability
● Risk of dependency
● Pooling risk (proprietarial information, clients competing among themselves) ● Risk of hidden costs
Ecological Risks
In our ever-more complex world, it no longer is sufficient for each organization to make decisions in light of their own vested self-interest. There is growing concern with the impact of human decisions on the state of the earth. This is especially true in mass production environments such as power generation,24 but also is important in all aspects of business. Cruz (2008) presented a dynamic framework for modeling and analysis of supply chain networks in light of corporate social responsibility.25 That study presented a framework multiple objective programming model with the criteria of maximizing profit, minimizing waste, and minimizing risk. Multiple Criteria Selection Model
A number of methodologies are applied in practice, to include simple screening and scoring methods,26 supplier positioning matrices to lay out risks by vendor, with
associated ratings,27 and a combination of sorts combining risk categorization with ratings of opportunity, probability, and severity.28 Traditional multiple criteria methods have also been applied, to include analytic hierarchy process.29 The simple multiattribute rating theory (SMART)30 model bases selection on the rank order of the product of criteria weights and alternative scores over these criteria, and will be used here. Note that we are demonstrating, and are not claiming that the orders and ratings used are universal. We are rather presenting a method that real decision makers could use with their own ratings (and even with other criteria that they might think important in a given application).
Options
There are various levels of outsourcing that can be adopted. These range from simply outsourcing particular tasks (much like the idea of service oriented architecture), co-managing services with partners, hiring partners to manage services, and full outsourcing (in a contractual relationship). We will use these four outsourcing relationships plus the fifth option of doing everything in-house as our options. Criteria
We will utilize the criteria given below:
● Cost (including hidden)
● Lead time
● Quality
● Ability to retain control
● Potential loss of critical capability
● Risk of dependency
● Risk of loss of proprietarial information
● Risk of client contention
The SMART method begins by rank ordering criteria. Here assume the following rank order of importance: 1. Ability to retain control
2. Risk proprietarial information loss
3. Quality of product and service
4. Potential loss of critical capability
5. Risk of dependency
6. Cost
7. Lead time
8. Risk of client contention
The next step is to develop relative weights of importance for criteria. We will do this by assigning the most important criterion 100 points, and give proportional ratings for each of the others as given in Table 5.1:
Weights are obtained by dividing each criterion’s assigned point value by the total of points (here 435). This yields weights shown in Table 5.2:
Scoring of Alternatives over Criteria
The next step of the SMART method is to score alternatives. This is an expression by the decision maker (or associated experts) of how well each alternative performs on each criterion. Scores range from 1.0 (ideal performance) to 0 (absolute worst performance imaginable). This approach makes the scores independent of scale, and
independent of weight. Demonstration is given in Table 5.3:
Once weights and scores are obtained, value functions for each alternative are simply the sum products of weights times scores for each alternative. The closer to 1.0 (the maximum value function), the better. Table 5.4 shows value scores for the five alternatives:
The outcome here is that in-house operations best satisfy the preference function of the decision maker. Obviously, different weights and scores will yield
different outcomes. But the method enables decision makers to apply a sound but simple analysis to aid their decision making.
译文：
供应链风险管理
D.L. Olson 和D. Wu
全球竞争，技术变化，以及不断寻找具有竞争优势的动机的供应链风险管理。供应链往往是复杂的系统网络，全球数百或数以千计的参与者都在该系统网络中（沃尔玛或戴尔）。这个词已经被用在战略层面（协调和合作）和战术水平都（跨职能与企业物流管理）。在这个意义上说，风险管理可以集中精力确定更好的方法和实现组织方式，而不是简单的保全资产或规避风险。供应链风险管理对协调和跨职能的活动过程和内部协作的组织网络很感兴趣。汤从风险管理的角度提供了供应链的框架。供应链使制造业外包能够利用全球的相对优势，优势，以及增加产品品种。在此有更开放的，动态系统固有的风险。
供应链风险管理过程
供应链的一个风险管理进程，包括风险识别，风险评估，风险规避和风险缓解步骤。处理这些风险结构与上述汤的名单兼容，但重点放在该进程的更广泛的方面。
风险识别
在供应链中的风险可以包括操作风险和干扰。操作风险包括如客户需求，供应和成本的内在不确定性的供应链元素。中断的风险来自灾害（在洪水，飓风等形式自然，人，在恐怖袭击或战争的形式提出）。还有来自经济危机的（货币重新评估，罢工，多变的市场价格）。大多数定量分析方法主要集中在经营风险，中断更戏剧化，较难预测，因此更为困难模式。风险管理规划和反应通常是定性受干扰的。
风险评估
理论上，风险已被看作是适用于那些已知胜算的情况下，不确定性和可能性是那些不知道情况。风险是一个较好的决策依据，但生活往往不确定性的情况下提出与决策者。这个问题进一步复杂化，因为完全理性的决策者可能从根本上不同的角度看待风险，定性风险管理很大程度上取决于对风险管理的态度很大。不同的理性个体可能有不同的反应，避免风险，通常是负相关的回报，从而导致一个折中的决定，研究认知心理学的研究发现，经理们往往不敏感的概率估计可能的结果，他们往往忽视认为是不可能的可能发生的事件。此外，管理人员往往不注意参与的积极成果的不确定性，他们往往把重点放在关键性能指标，这使得他们的风险反应于环境队伍，对于决策理论的一些目标，他们希望通过定量的方法，科学的风险处置措施后告诉人类应该如何作出决定的规范性意见。业务涉及非理论建设，但是水平高。基于不确定性（数据不详）和多个（往往相互冲突的）因素的考虑，使得在风险管理后，认为更适当的定性方法。
由于诸如概率因素往往缺乏准确的措施，（更可能使个别情况下广泛有效的反应）的强壮的策略往往吸引风险管理者。策略是有效的，如果他们能帮助一个公司的经营风险和有效处理，不论有多大的破坏。有弹性的策略，如果他们能够
坚定地维护一个主要经营的中断。供应链风险可能来自许多来源，包括以下内容：
●政治事件
●产品的可用性
●距离来源
●行业的能力
●需求波动
●技术变革
●在劳动市场的变化
●金融不稳定
●管理的营业额
风险规避
风险防范可能是最古老的保险，购买一些金融安全来自承销商的水平。这侧重于财务方面的风险，是被动的，提供了一些如何从负面经验后恢复的方法。保险不是风险管理在供应链使用的唯一形式。德尔塔航空公司的恐怖主义保险的保费由200万元增至2001年的1.52亿美元于2002年。保险侧重于金融风险，其他主要风险包括客户因供给的变化中断的损失。
供应链风险有多种可缓冲的方法，采购通常是分配的控制成本和保证供应的持续责任。在存货的形式存在缓冲器提供一些减少风险，在一个较高的库存持有成本。Giunipero和Al Eltantawy是较传统做法是较新的风险管理方法。传统的做法是依靠额外库存，多供应商，在高的交易成本中频繁地换供应商，完成购买周期长，和昂贵的急单。风险管理方法的借鉴做法，如供应链联盟，电子采购，及时交货，加强协调和其他技术，提供了更多的供应链运营的可视性。有可能发生的商品价格上涨，增加了安全问题，但方法已经发展为为客户提供完善的电子业务的安全性。
降低风险
汤提供了四个基本的降低供应链风险的办法。这些问题对风险的来源重点：管理方面的不确定性的供应，需求，产品管理和信息管理，此外，还有战略和战术方面的工作。从战略上讲，网络设计可以更好地控制供应风险，如产品定价和长期策略可以在一定程度上控制需求，更多的产品品种保护战略可以根据产品的风险程度，系统提供更大的供应链成员之间可以实现更好的资讯透明度以应对风险，战术的选择和决定包括供应商订单分配（包括合同安排）；需求在时间控制，市场，产品，产品推广和信息共享，供应商管理库存系统，协同规划，预测和补货。
供应管理
一个供应商的各种关系是可能的，不同的供应商和核心组织之间的联系程度。合同的不同类型和信息交流是可能的，定价及协调不同的计划时间表。
供应商选择过程
供应商（卖方）的评估是一个非常重要的业务决定。有选择的决定聘请哪些供应商以及决定从每个供应商有关数量的订购。随着外包的增加和电子业务开拓世界各地市场提供的机会，这些决定正变得越来越复杂，在这些决定的多重标准的存在，早已得到承认。这一决定的一个概率模型已经出版，包括下列准则：
1.高素质人才
2.质量程序
3.关注质量
4.公司的历史
5.价格相对质量
6.实际价格
7.财政能力
8.技术性能
9.交付的历史
10.技术援助
11.生产能力
12.制造设备
这些标准的一些重叠，可能存适合特定的供应链决策者的其他标准。但是很显然还有很多选择供应商的重要方面。
供应商的订单分配
供应链订单分配的业务风险包括需求的不确定性，供应产量，交货时间和成本。因此，不仅需要做具体的供应商选择，他们购买的数量也需要经常性的确认。
供应链为他们的成员提供了许多宝贵的权益，但同时也造成了协调的问题，表现在“牛鞭效应”的影响。资讯系统的协调可以减少牛鞭效应的一些负面影响，但仍然存在利润分享问题。一个供应链成员的选择的决定往往会对整个供应链总体的利润造成负面的影响。
需求管理
需求管理的方法包括利用在一个需求分布和经济模型的最优组合识别模型统计，作为一种战略选择反应机制，代表价格变动的需求。其他战略转移的需求随着时间的推移，包括跨市场，或跨产品。需求管理当然是广告和其他宣传活动的目的之一。然而，长期以来人们注意到，最困难的事情之一是时间的预测。
产品管理
一个有效的策略来管理多种产品的风险是，它可以被用来增加市场份额，以满足市场不同的部分。其基本思路是以多样化的产品来满足各个细分市场的特定需求。然而，虽然预计这将会增加收入和市场份额，但会导致生产成本增加和库存成本。以不同的方法来处理各种潜在的产品包括戴尔的低效率的化妆品按订单生产的策略。
供应链中断
汤分类供应那些由于不明朗的经济周期、客户的需求、灾害链的漏洞。路虎减少了超过一千的主要供应商时，其工作人员破产。多尔被击中受飓风米奇于1998年在中美洲的香蕉种植园。01年9月11日暂停空中交通，导致福特汽车公司关闭了数天。许多事情可以破坏供应链的五家工厂。供应链中断已经导致他们在苦难之中产生负面影响的公司的股票的回报。
供应链风险
目前的供应链风险研究包涵了多个主题。
新技术风险
戈尔达和飞利浦20考虑了供应链的技术和商业风险组成部分。技术风险涉及到科学与工程，并与研究成果的不确定性协议。商业风险与市场，产品和或相关服务的人员反应。在英特尔，三险减灾战略被认为是处理与新技术相关的风险：
1.涉及的相关决定与谁进行合作，在什么样的产品开发阶段的伙伴关系。
2.追求可扩展的解决方案，进化产品，将继续提供新的技术价值，取得了
突破。
3.评估多种选项，使商业化。
合作伙伴选择风险
合作伙伴（包括供应商）的评估是一个非常重要的业务决定。重要决定包括哪些厂商雇用数量和每个供应商订购。随着外包的增加和电子业务开拓为世界各地市场提供了机会，这些决定正变得越来越复杂。这些决定的多重标准的存在，早已得到承认。
外包风险
其他风险相关的合作伙伴的选择，注重与国际贸易相关的特别额外风险。外包风险可能包括:
●成本 -不可预见的供应商的选择，转型，或管理
●前置时间-延迟生产启动，制造过程，或运输
●质量-未成年人或主要完成缺陷，部件装配，或结构缺陷
外包已成为美国，尤其是信息技术，印度和中国特有的生产。风险因素包括:
●保持控制的能力
●潜力的关键能力的退化
●风险的依赖
●汇集风险（私有信息，客户彼此之间的竞争）
●风险的隐性成本
生态风险
在我们日益复杂的世界，它不再是以让每个组织在自己既得的利益的自我利益为决策。有越来越多的人类决策对地球状况的影响表示关注。这一点尤其在诸如发电，大生产环境中是真实的，但对企业的各个方面也很重要。克鲁斯（2008）提出了动态的框架。建模和企业社会责任在供应链网络中轻分析。研究提出了一个框架多目标规划模型与利润最大化的标准，以减少浪费，降低风险。
多准则选择模型
一个数的方法是在实践中应用，包括简单的筛选和评分方法，供应商定位矩阵来布置由供应商的风险，相关的收视率，以及相结合的机会，概率和严重性等级的风险分类排序的组合。传统方法多准则也得到了应用，包括层次分析法。简单多属性评价理论（SMART）的示范基地的选择上的标准重量和得分超过上述标准的替代产品的等级秩序，将用在这里。请注意，我们正在证明，而不是宣称的命令及评级使用的普遍性。我们提出一个方法，而不是真正的决策者可以使用他们（和其他标准，他们可能会认为在一个特定应用的重要偶数）的评级。
选项
还有的外包服务，可以采取不同的级别。特别是这些从简单的外包任务（很像面向服务架构的想法），共同管理与合作伙伴的服务，雇用管理服务合作伙伴和全外包（在合同关系）。我们将使用这四个外包关系加上作为我们的选择第五个选项的房子。
标准
我们将利用如下的标准：
●成本（包括隐藏）
●交货期
●质量
●保持控制的能力
●潜在损失的关键能力
●风险的依赖
●丢失私有信息的风险
在SMART方法开始按等级排序标准。在这里，假设以下
排名的重要性：
1.保持控制的能力
2.丢失私有信息的风险
3.优质的产品和服务
4.关键能力的潜在损失
5.依赖风险
6.成本
7.交货期
8.争夺客户的风险
下一步是要为标准建立相关重要性权重。我们将通过最重要的标准分配者100分，并在5.1表中给出了每个人的比例评分：权值除以总点（这里是435）以获得每个标准的配点值。这将产生重量表，如5.2所示。
备选方案得分超过标准
SMRT方法的下一步是评分选择。这是由一个决策者表达（或相关专家）每个选择方案在每个标准中执行程度。分数范围从1.0（理想成绩）到0（最差表现绩效）。这种方法使得分数与规模和重量无关。在表5.3中展示。
表5.1 点分配的准则
范围标准分数
1 保持控制能力 100
2 私有信息丢失的风险 90
3 优质的产品和服务 85
4 关键能力的潜在损失 60
5 风险依赖 40
6 成本 30
7 前置时间 25
8 客户争夺的风险 5
表5.2 权重的建立
范围标准分数权重
1 保持控制能力 100 0.230
2 私有信息丢失的风险 90 0.207
3 优质的产品和服务 85 0.195
4 关键能力的潜在损失 60 0.138
5 风险依赖 40 0.092
6 成本 30 0.069
7 前置时间 25 0.057
8 客争夺的风险 5 0.011
表3 分数
标准超任务共同管理管理合约公司内部
保持控制能力 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0
私有信息丢失的风险 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0
优质的产品和服务 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 关键能力的潜在损失 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0 风险依赖 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 成本 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.2 前置时间 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 客争夺的风险 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.3
表4价值功能
选择超任务共同管理管理合同公司内部
0.613 0.438 0.363 0.297 0.844
2 3 4 5 1
一旦得到权重和分数，对每个替代的价值功能是单纯的每一个选择权次得分的总和产品。越接近1.0（最大值函数），就越好。表5.4列出了五个方案价值分数：
其结果是，在公司内部业务的最佳满足决策者的偏好函数。显然，不同的重量和成绩将产生不同的结果。但该方法使决策者应用声
音，但简单的分析，以帮助其决策。
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项目风险管理案例分析
项目风险管理案例分析 1公司背景简介 河北H-A会计师事务所是河北省财政厅对国有大中型企业进行社会审计的试点所，承担省直大中型企业的审计工作。具有丰富工作经验，拥有一批具有丰富实践经验的注册会计师。 河北省某研究所是省直科研单位，现有50多位员工。在基于WINDOWS平台开发软件方面，具备较丰富的实战技能。河北H-A会计师事务所在审计工作中发现，很多企业都采用了会计电算化软件，对审计工作提出新的要求。社会审计工作的需要，对开发计算机辅助审计软件的愿望越来越强烈。所以就联合河北省某研究所进行联合开发 2实际项目分析 2.1项目介绍 该系统基于windows和sql server进行开发，开发工具是powerbulider。项目开发过程中，共生成程序源代码约数万行，项目开发的难度和源代码行数都比预计的要多。 计算机辅助审计软件具有工作底稿制作能力和查证功能；数据可传递，能自动生成和人工输入相结合，产生合并抵销分录；能自动产生勾稽无误的审计报告和会计报表附注；有灵活开放的系统，方便用户进行二次开发等特点。 2.2开发队伍的风险 开发团队维持在10人上下，事务所提供3人，开发单位6-7人，有一些人员只能部分时间工作，开发人员能够自始至终地参加整个项目的工作。开发人员的流动基本能保证工作的连续性。 2.3技术风险 数据结构复杂，关联比较多。需要创建新的算法或输入,输出技术；软件需要与其他软件产品的数据库系统接口；客户能确定所要求的功能是可行的。同时，由于当时审计软件在国内的应用尚处于起步阶段，开发人员普遍对该系统比较陌生，这也带来了相当的技术风险。 2.4客户相关风险 用户对自己真正的需求并不是十分明确，他们认为计算机是万能的，只要简单的说说自己想干什么就是把需求说明白了，而对业务的规则、工作流程却不愿多谈，也讲不清楚。有的用户日常工作繁忙，他们不愿意付出更多的时间和精力向分析人员讲解业务，这样加大分析人员的工作难度和工作量，也可能导致因业务需求不足而使系统风险加大。 2.5项目按时完成的风险 另外，这个项目也像许多其它软件项目一样，面临着竣工日期带来的巨大压力。 3实际的风险管理状况 凭借公司在以往的经验，在此软件项目的整个生命周期中，任何阶段都有可能有风险存在，WBS是完整表示项目，且伴随整个项目生命周期的项目要素，所以以WBS为基础进行风险管理，既可以方便地识别，标识相应的风险来源，又方便和项日其他工作一起，统一管理。 在软件项目中，各阶段主要工作简述如下：
商业银行风险管理外文及翻译
外文文献翻译 Commercial Bank Risk Management : An Analysis of the Process
外文文献： Commercial Bank Risk Management: An Analysis of the Process Abstract Throughout the past year, on-site visits to financial service firms were conducted to review and evaluate their financial risk management systems. The commercial banking analysis covered a number of North American super-regionals and quasi±money-center institutions as well as several firms outside the U.S. The information obtained covered both the philosophy and practice of financial risk management. This article outlines the results of this investigation. It reports the state of risk management techniques in the industry. It reports the standard of practice and evaluates how and why it is conducted in the particular way chosen. In addition, critiques are offered where appropriate. We discuss the problems which the industry finds most difficult to address, shortcomings of the current methodology used to analyze risk, and the elements that are missing in the current procedures of risk management. 1. Introduction The past decade has seen dramatic losses in the banking industry. Firms that had been performing well suddenly announced large losses due to credit exposures that turned sour, interest rate positions taken, or derivative exposures that may or may not have been assumed to hedge balance sheet risk. In response to this, commercial banks have almost universally embarked upon an upgrading of their risk management and control systems. Coincidental to this activity, and in part because of our recognition of the industry's vulnerability to financial risk, the Wharton Financial Institutions Center, with the support of the Sloan Foundation, has been involved in an analysis of financial risk management processes in the financial sector. Through the past academic year, on-site visits were conducted to review and evaluate the risk management systems and the process of risk evaluation that is in place. In the banking sector, system evaluation was conducted covering many of North America's
项目风险管理分析中英文对照外文翻译文献
中英文对照外文翻译文献 (文档含英文原文和中文翻译) 原文： Project Risk Analysis Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 About this compendium This course compendium is to be used in the course “Risikostyring is projector”. The focus will be on the following topics: ? R isk identification ? Risk structuring ? Risk modeling in the light of a time schedule and a cost model
? Risk follows up We will also discuss elements related to decision analysis where risk is involved, and use of life cycle cost and life cycle profit models. The course compendium comprises a large number of exercises, and it is recommended to do most of the exercises in order to get a good understanding of the topics and methods described. A separate MS Excel program, pRisk.xls has been developed in order to assist numerical calculations and to conduct Monte Carlo simulation. 1.2 Definitions Aleatory uncertainty Variation of quantities in a population. We sometimes use the word variability rather than aleatory uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty Lack of knowledge about the “world”, and observable quantities in particular. Dependency The relation between the sequences of the activities in a project. Observable quantity A quantity expressing a state of the “world”, i.e. a quantity of the p hysical reality or nature, that is unknown at the time of the analysis but will, if the system being analyzed is actually implemented, take some value in the future, and possibly become known. Parameter We use the term parameter in two ways in this report. The main use of a parameter is that it is a quantity that is a part of the risk analysis models, and for which we assign numerical values. The more academic definition of a parameter used in a probability
第-8-章--项目风险管理案例
第8 章项目风险管理案例 项目需要以有限的成本在有限的时间内达到项目目标，而风险会影响这一点。风险管理的目的就是最小化风险对项目目标的负面影响，抓住风险带来的机会，增加项目干系人的收益。作为项目管理人员，必须评估项目中的风险，制定风险应对策略，有针对性地分配资源、制定计划，保证项目顺利的进行。 8．1 案例一：风险分类 阅读以下关于信息系统项目管理过程中人群风险分类方面问题的叙述，回答问题1至问题3。 8.1.1 案例场景 某公司召开会议，商量是否实施ERP项目，三个部门主要负责人就此问题发表自己的看法。 甲：我们公司不应该实施这个项目。现在我们刚把办公自动化系统搞好，还没有适应，工作效率也没提高多少，再上ERP 有些不适应，而且这个ERP项目花费太大。ERP在国内很多企业都搞失败了，成功的几率不会多大。如果我们也失败了，会给公司带来灾难性的后果。利用搞ERP的这些钱我们可以做一些短、平、快的项目，多招一些开发高手，提高公司的收益，而不是搞这些无端的风险投资。 乙：不应该一棒子打死ERP，ERP是一种新兴事务，ERP不是万能的，但是不上ERP 又是万万不行的。企业规模到了一定程度，管理和决策就是一个重要的问题。ERP是知识经济时代的管理方案，是面向供应链和“流程制”的智能决策支持系统，其先进的管理思想可以帮助企业最大限度地利用已有资源，解决管理和决策问题。但是实施ERP 风险很大，很多企业都失败了，主要原因在于项目实施的管理问题，没有及时识别项目中的风险并及时处理，项目监控机制不好，高层支持不够，老员工的适应性差等，最终导致“ERP天折”。我们公司以后想获得更大发展，应该实施ERP ，现在有些条件不够，整体上ERP不太可行，我们可以分步实施。我们可以借鉴其他企业实施ERP 的经验，先进行小范围ERP试验、积累经验，等以后时机成熟了，我们就整体实施ERP 。 丙：ERP 应该上，而且要迅速上，不应该等。如果其他企业都上了ERP，那么我们公司再依靠ERP获得收益就没有什么希望了。ERP本身就是一把双刃剑，虽然有风险，但是收益也大，现在我们的目标是收益，对于风险要想法化解。项目实施中要注意借鉴其他企业的经验，摸着石头过河，形成自己的特色，提高自己公司的管理和决策水平，争取把公司做大做强。小的、可以自己解决的风险自己处理；难以处理的、不确定的风险进行外包，实施风险转移；如果管理有问题的话，可以从专业咨询公司招聘顾问来担当项目经理的职务。总之，尽一切可能实施ERP，实现收益最大化。 【问题1】如图8-1所示，横轴表示项目投资的大小，纵轴表示项目成功的概率，A、B, C代表三种不同应对风险的人。请写出A,B,C的名字和特征，并且指出上述案例中甲、乙、丙分别属于哪一种对象(250字左右)。
金融银行信用风险管理外文翻译文献
金融银行信用风险管理外文翻译文献 (文档含中英文对照即英文原文和中文翻译) 原文: Managing Credit Risks with Knowledge Management for Financial Banks Pan Jin Department of Economics Economics and Management School of Wuhan University Wuhan,Hubei Province,430072,China Abstract-Nowadays,financial banks are operating in a knowledge society and there are more and more credit risks breaking out in banks.So,this paper first discusses the implications of knowledge and knowledge management, and then analyzes credit risks of financial banks
with knowledge management. Finally, the paper studies ways for banks to manage credit risks with knowledge management. With the application of knowledge management in financial banks, customers will acquire better service and banks will acquire more rewards. Index Terms–knowledge management; credit risk; risk management; incentive mechanism; financial banks I.INTRODUCTION Nowadays,banks are operating in a“knowledge society”.So, what is knowledge? Davenport(1996)[1]thinks knowledge is professional intellect, such as know-what, know-how, know-why, and self-motivated creativity, or experience, concepts, values, beliefs and ways of working that can be shared and communicated. The awareness of the importance of knowledge results in the critical issue of “knowledge management”. So, what is knowledge management? According to Malhothra(2001)[2], knowledge management(KM)caters to the critical issues of organizational adaptation, survival and competence in face of increasingly discontinuous environmental change. Essentially it embodies organizational processes that seek synergistic combination of data and information processing capacity of information technologies and the creative and innovative capacity of human beings. Through the processes of creating,sustaining, applying, sharing and renewing knowledge, we can enhance organizational performance and create value. Many dissertations have studied knowledge managementapplications in some special fields. Aybübe Aurum(2004)[3] analyzes knowledge management in software engineering and D.J.Harvey＆R.Holdsworth(2005)[4]study knowledge management in the aerospace industry. Li Yang(2007)[5] studies knowledge management in information-based education and Jayasundara＆Chaminda Chiran(2008)[6] review the prevailing literature on knowledge management in banking industries. Liang ping and Wu Kebao(2010)[7]study the incentive mechanism of knowledge management in Banking. There are also many papers about risks analysis and risks management. Before the 1980s, the dominant mathematical theory of risks analysis was to describe a pair of random vectors.But,the simplification assumptions and methods used by classical competing risks
项目风险管理文献综述
项目风险管理文献综述 项目的实现过程是一个存在着很多不确定性的过程，因为这一过程是一个复杂的、一次性的、创新性的并且涉及许多关系与变数的过程。 项目风险管理是为了最好地达到项目的目标，识别、分配、应对项目生命周期内风险的科学与艺术，是一种综合性的管理活动，其理论和实践涉及到自然科学、社会科学、工程技术、系统科学、管理科学等多种学科。项目风险管理的目标可以被认为是使潜在机会或回报最大化、使潜在风险最小化。 针对当前我国工程建设中，对风险认识和估计不足，在建设过程中又没有有效的风险防范措施等情况。本文着重从风险的认识、特点、产生原因进行分析，介绍了它的基本概念及其常用的几种风险识别、风险评价和风险应对和监控的方法，提出控制风险的对策措施。 项目风险管理 项目风险是指由于项目所处的环境和条件本身的不确定性，和项目业主、客户、项目组织或项目的某个当事人主观上不能准确预见或控制因数影响，使项目的最终结果与当事人的期望产生悖离，并存在给当事人带来损失的可能性。 工程项目风险的产生 1.政策风险 政策风险是项目实施过程中，由于国家、行业的主管部门对所实施的项目相关的政策、法律法规、规划或标准的更新、更改给项目所带来的风险。对这类风险的管理和控制，首先要保证所实施的项目符合国家的产业政策，还应密切注意与项目相关的法律法规及标准可能发生的变化。如调整国民经济计划、产业政策，强行下令已开工的项目下马，或对一些企业实行关停并转等，许多工程业主不得不因此而改变其投资计划，因此，不可避免要遭受重大损失。再者由于政府角色与地位的特殊性，一旦政府换届就有可能导致工程项目发生变更，由此造成工程项目独特的“政治风险”。 2.市场风险 由于产品和原材料的市场价格及供需变化，产品的市场竞争能力等因素给项目造成的风险。该风险是竞争性项目最常遇到的风险，对项目的收益影响至关重要。避免或减少该风险必须采取综合性措施。一是前期做好市场调研，把握项目的产品市场和原材料市场的变化趋势;在选择时，注重项目产品的生命周期，避开进入衰退期的项目，选择具有市场生命力和发展前景的项目，避免市场风险。二是结合企业发展战略，做好产品市场定位，运用营销策略来降低或化解不利因素的影响，从而减少、降低市场风险。 3.管理风险 指项目管理过程中，由于管理层决策失误、战略调整等管理方面的因素造成的风险，是一种人为的风险，具有主观性、可控性，与项目的组织、管理实施有直接联系。 4.财务风险 项目在实施过程中由于资金融通、资金周转、利率汇率变化使项目可能发生超投资或资金短
商业银行信贷风险管理外文翻译
文献信息： 文献标题：Credit Risk Management Strategies and Their Impact on Performance of Commercial Banks in Kenya（信贷风险管理策略及其对肯尼亚商业银行绩效的影响） 国外作者：Samuel Warui Mutua，Muoni Gekara 文献出处：《Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research》,2017, 3(4):1896-1904 字数统计：英文2891单词，15678字符；中文4915汉字 外文文献： Credit Risk Management Strategies and Their Impact on Performance of Commercial Banks in Kenya Abstract Credit risk management strategies are amongst the most critical factors to consider for any financial institution involved in any lending activity. Financial institutions have often find themselves making decisions between lending to potential borrowers thus effectively growing their balance sheets and effectively increasing their returns and being cautious in lending to caution themselves against any potential losses. Specifically, the research sought to examine credit risk management strategies and their impact on performance of commercial banks in Kenya. The research was guided by the liquidity theory of credit, portfolio theory, credit risk theory and the tax theory of credit. The research was based on a descriptive design which involves describing the current state of affairs by use of data collected through questionnaires and interviews. The research was focused on selected Tier III commercial banks in Kenya namely Consolidated Bank, African Banking Corporation and Credit Bank with reference to the loans department. The sampled population consists of 62 staff members from loans department of Consolidated Bank, African Banking Corporation and Credit
保险公司风险管理外文文献翻译2014年译文5500字
文献出处：Beasley M S, Clune R, Hermanson D R. Enterprise risk management in Insurance [J]. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, 2014, 24(6): 521-531. （2014年最新翻译，英语专八，保证质量。） 作者：Beasley M S, Clune R, Hermanson D R 文献名：Enterprise risk management in Insurance 期刊名：Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 年份：2014年，24卷，第6期，页码：521-531 译文字数：5500字 原文 Enterprise Risk Management in Insurance Beasley, Clune, Hermanson Trust is a key determinants of any financial transaction. Exchanges in insurance markets are a particular type of financial transaction where a current payment – the premium –is exchanges for a promise of a future, contingent payment –the indemnity due when the casualty occurs. We argue that trust is key in fostering these type of exchanges. Trust enters two ways: because it affects the willingness of the company to supply insurance when the insured can cheat by claiming indemnities that are not due. Because it discourages people from purchasing insurance if they do not trust the company promise of readily paying the indemnity when due. We prove theoretically and empirically the relevance of trust in insurance exchanges and discuss policies to foster it. Enterprise Risk Management (hereinafter referred as “ERM”) interests a wide range of professions (e.g., actuaries, corporate financial managers, underwriters, accountants,and internal auditors), however, current ERM solutions often do not cover all risks because they are motivated by the core professional ethics and principles of these professions who design and administer them. In a typical insurance company all such professions work as a group to achieve the overriding corporate objectives.Risk can be defined as factors which prevent an organization in achieving its objectives and risks affect organizations holistically. The management of risk in isolation often misses its big picture. It is argued here that a holistic management of risk is logical and is the ultimate destination of all general management activities.Moreover, risk