风险管理【外文翻译】
外文文献翻译译文
一、外文原文
原文：
Risk Management
This chapter reviews and discusses the basic issues and principles of risk management, including: risk acceptability (tolerability); risk reduction and the ALARP principle; cautionary and precautionary principles. And presents a case study showing the importance of these issues and principles in a practical management context. Before we take a closer look, let us briefly address some basic features of risk management.
The purpose of risk management is to ensure that adequate measures are taken to protect people, the environment, and assets from possible harmful consequences of the activities being undertaken, as well as to balance different concerns, in particular risks and costs. Risk management includes measures both to avoid the hazards and to reduce their potential harm. Traditionally, in industries such as nuclear, oil, and gas, risk management was based on a prescriptive regulating regime, in which detailed requirements were set with regard to the design and operation of the arrangements. This regime has gradually been replaced by a more goal-oriented regime, putting emphasis on what to achieve rather than on the means of achieving it.
Risk management is an integral aspect of a goal-oriented regime. It is acknowledged that risk cannot be eliminated but must be managed. There is nowadays an enormous drive and enthusiasm in various industries and in society as a whole to implement risk management in organizations. There are high expectations that risk management is the proper framework through which to achieve high levels of performance.
Risk management involves achieving an appropriate balance between realizing
opportunities for gain and minimizing losses. It is an integral part of good management practice and an essential element of good corporate governance. It is an iterative process consisting of steps that, when undertaken in sequence, can lead to a continuous improvement in decision-making and facilitate a continuous improvement in performance.
To support decision-making regarding design and operation, risk analyses are carried out. They include the identification of hazards and threats, cause analyses, consequence analyses, and risk descriptions. The results are then evaluated. The totality of the analyses and the evaluations are referred to as risk assessments. Risk assessment is followed by risk treatment, which is a process involving the development and implementation of measures to modify the risk, including measures designed to avoid, reduce (“optimize”), transfer, or retain the risk. Risk transfer means sharing with another party the benefit or loss associated with a risk. It is typically affected through insurance. Risk management covers all coordinated activities in the direction and control of an organization with regard to risk.
In many enterprises, the risk management tasks are divided into three main categories: strategic risk, financial risk, and operational risk. Strategic risk includes aspects and factors that are important for the enterprise’s long-term strategy and plans, for example mergers and acquisitions, technology, competition, political conditions, legislation and regulations, and labor market. Financial risk includes the enterprise’s financial situation, and includes: Market risk, associated with the costs of goods and services, foreign exchange rates and securities (shares, bonds, etc.). Credit risk, associated with a debtor’s failure to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms. Liquidity risk, reflecting lack of access to cash; the difficulty of selling an asset in a timely manner. Operational risk is related to conditions affecting the normal operating situation: Accidental events, including failures and defects, quality deviations, natural disasters. Intended acts; sabotage, disgruntled employees, etc. Loss of competence, key personnel. Legal circumstances, associated for instance, with defective contracts and liability insurance.
For an enterprise to become successful in its implementation of risk management,
top management needs to be involved, and activities must be put into effect on many levels. Some important points to ensure success are: the establishment of a strategy for risk management, i.e., the principles of how the enterprise defines and implements risk management. Should one simply follow the regulatory requirements (minimal requirements), or should one be the “best in the class”? The establishment of a risk management process for the enterprise, i.e. formal processes and routines that the enterprise is to follow. The establishment of management structures, with roles and responsibilities, such that the risk analysis process becomes integrated into the organization. The implementation of analyses and support systems, such as risk analysis tools, recording systems for occurrences of various types of events, etc. The communication, training, and development of a risk management culture, so that the competence, understanding, and motivation level within the organization is enhanced. Given the above fundamentals of risk management, the next step is to develop principles and a methodology that can be used in practical decision-making. This is not, however, straightforward. There are a number of challenges and here we address some of these: establishing an informative risk picture for the various decision alternatives, using this risk picture in a decision-making context. Establishing an informative risk picture means identifying appropriate risk indices and assessments of uncertainties. Using the risk picture in a decision making context means the definition and application of risk acceptance criteria, cost benefit analyses and the ALARP principle, which states that risk should be reduced to a level which is as low as is reasonably practicable.
It is common to define and describe risks in terms of probabilities and expected values. This has, however, been challenged, since the probabilities and expected values can camouflage uncertainties; the assigned probabilities are conditional on a number of assumptions and suppositions, and they depend on the background knowledge. Uncertainties are often hidden in this background knowledge, and restricting attention to the assigned probabilities can camouflage factors that could produce surprising outcomes. By jumping directly into probabilities, important uncertainty aspects are easily truncated, and potential surprises may be left
unconsidered.
Let us, as an example, consider the risks, seen through the eyes of a risk analyst in the 1970s, associated with future health problems for divers working on offshore petroleum projects. The analyst assigns a value to the probability that a diver would experience health problems (properly defined) during the coming 30 years due to the diving activities. Let us assume that a value of 1 % was assigned, a number based on the knowledge available at that time. There are no strong indications that the divers will experience health problems, but we know today that these probabilities led to poor predictions. Many divers have experienced severe health problems (Avon and Vine, 2007). By restricting risk to the probability assignments alone, important aspects of uncertainty and risk are hidden. There is a lack of understanding about the underlying phenomena, but the probability assignments alone are not able to fully describe this status.
Several risk perspectives and definitions have been proposed in line with this realization. For example, Avon (2007a, 2008a) defines risk as the two-dimensional combination of events/consequences and associated uncertainties (will the events occur, what the consequences will be). A closely related perspective is suggested by Avon and Renan (2008a), who define risk associated with an activity as uncertainty about and severity of the consequences of the activity, where severity refers to intensity, size, extension, scope and other potential measures of magnitude with respect to something that humans value (lives, the environment, money, etc.). Losses and gains, expressed for example in monetary terms or as the number of fatalities, are ways of defining the severity of the consequences. See also Avon and Christensen (2005).
In the case of large uncertainties, risk assessments can support decision-making, but other principles, measures, and instruments are also required, such as the cautionary/precautionary principles as well as robustness and resilience strategies. An informative decision basis is needed, but it should be far more nuanced than can be obtained by a probabilistic analysis alone. This has been stressed by many researchers, e.g. Apostolicism (1990) and Apostolicism and Lemon (2005): qualitative risk
analysis (QRA) results are never the sole basis for decision-making. Safety- and security-related decision-making is risk-informed, not risk-based. This conclusion is not, however, justified merely by referring to the need for addressing uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values. The main issue here is the fact that risks need to be balanced with other concerns.
When various solutions and measures are to be compared and a decision is to be made, the analysis and assessments that have been conducted provide a basis for such a decision. In many cases, established design principles and standards provide clear guidance. Compliance with such principles and standards must be among the first reference points when assessing risks. It is common thinking that risk management processes, and especially ALARP processes, require formal guidelines or criteria (e.g., risk acceptance criteria and cost-effectiveness indices) to simplify the decision-making. Care must; however, be shown when using this type of formal decision-making criteria, as they easily result in a mechanization of the decision-making process. Such mechanization is unfortunate because: Decision-making criteria based on risk-related numbers alone (probabilities and expected values) do not capture all the aspects of risk, costs, and benefits, no method has a precision that justifies a mechanical decision based on whether the result is over or below a numerical criterion. It is a managerial responsibility to make decisions under uncertainty, and management should be aware of the relevant risks and uncertainties.
Apostolicism and Lemon (2005) adopt a pragmatic approach to risk analysis and risk management, acknowledging the difficulties of determining the probabilities of an attack. Ideally, they would like to implement a risk-informed procedure, based on expected values. However, since such an approach would require the use of probabilities that have not been “rigorously derived”, they see themselves forced to resort to a more pragmatic approach.
This is one possible approach when facing problems of large uncertainties. The risk analyses simply do not provide a sufficiently solid basis for the decision-making process. We argue along the same lines. There is a need for a management review and
judgment process. It is necessary to see beyond the computed risk picture in the form of the probabilities and expected values. Traditional quantitative risk analyses fail in this respect. We acknowledge the need for analyzing risk, but question the value added by performing traditional quantitative risk analyses in the case of large uncertainties. The arbitrariness in the numbers produced can be significant, due to the uncertainties in the estimates or as a result of the uncertainty assessments being strongly dependent on the analysts.
It should be acknowledged that risk cannot be accurately expressed using probabilities and expected values. A quantitative risk analysis is in many cases better replaced by a more qualitative approach, as shown in the examples above; an approach which may be referred to as a semi-quantitative approach. Quantifying risk using risk indices such as the expected number of fatalities gives an impression that risk can be expressed in a very precise way. However, in most cases, the arbitrariness is large. In a semi-quantitative approach this is acknowledged by providing a more nuanced risk picture, which includes factors that can cause “surprises” relative to the probabilities and the expected values. Quantification often requires strong simplifications and assumptions and, as a result, important factors could be ignored or given too little (or too much) weight. In a qualitative or semi-quantitative analysis, a more comprehensive risk picture can be established, taking into account underlying factors influencing risk. In contrast to the prevailing use of quantitative risk analyses, the precision level of the risk description is in line with the accuracy of the risk analysis tools. In addition, risk quantification is very resource demanding. One needs to ask whether the resources are used in the best way. We conclude that in many cases more is gained by opening up the way to a broader, more qualitative approach, which allows for considerations beyond the probabilities and expected values.
The traditional quantitative risk assessments as seen for example in the nuclear and the oil & gas industries provide a rather narrow risk picture, through calculated probabilities and expected values, and we conclude that this approach should be used with care for problems with large uncertainties. Alternative approaches highlighting the qualitative aspects are more appropriate in such cases. A broad risk description is
required. This is also the case in the normative ambiguity situations, as the risk characterizations provide a basis for the risk evaluation processes. The main concern is the value judgments, but they should be supported by solid scientific assessments, showing a broad risk picture. If one tries to demonstrate that it is rational to accept risk, on a scientific basis, too narrow an approach to risk has been adopted. Recognizing uncertainty as a main component of risk is essential to successfully implement risk management, for cases of large uncertainties and normative ambiguity.
A risk description should cover computed probabilities and expected values, as well as: Sensitivities showing how the risk indices depend on the background knowledge (assumptions and suppositions); Uncertainty assessments; Description of the background knowledge, including models and data used.
The uncertainty assessments should not be restricted to standard probabilistic analysis, as this analysis could hide important uncertainty factors. The search for quantitative, explicit approaches for expressing the uncertainties, even beyond the subjective probabilities, may seem to be a possible way forward. However, such an approach is not recommended. Trying to be precise and to accurately express what is extremely uncertain does not make sense. Instead we recommend a more open qualitative approach to reveal such uncertainties. Some might consider this to be less attractive from a methodological and scientific point of view. Perhaps it is, but it would be more suited for solving the problem at hand, which is about the analysis and management of risk and uncertainties.
Source: Terje Aven. 2010. “Risk Management”. Risk in Technological Systems, Oct, p175-198.
二、翻译文章
译文：
风险管理
本章回顾和讨论风险管理的基本问题和原则，包括：风险可接受性（耐受性）、风险削减和安全风险管理原则、警示和预防原则，并提出了一个研究案例，说明在实际管理环境中这些问题和原则的重要性。这需要我们的深入研究，在此之前，让我们简单谈谈风险管理的一些基本特征。
风险管理的目的是：在现时事件产生有害后果时，及时采取适当的措施以确保人类，环境和资产的安全，以及平衡人们的不同关注取向，特别是风险和成本。风险管理包括两种措施，控制危险源和减少潜在的危害。传统上，诸如核能，石油和天然气产业，风险管理主要是依靠规范监管制度来管理的，这项制度对设计和操作的安排提出了系统性的要求。但是渐渐的，这一制度已被一项更加标准化的制度所取代，此制度是强调要取得的成果而不是如何实现这些成果的手段。
风险管理是标准化制度的一个组成部分。风险不能消除，只能加以控制改善，这是被人们所公认的。现在有一项具有巨大驱动力和感召力的措施正应运而生，它将不同产业和社会作为一个整体来实施组织风险管理。风险管理是一项适当的措施，人们对于用它来实现高产值有很大的期望。
风险管理包括可认识到的实现增益的机会和损失的最小化，并且在它们之间实现适当的平衡。这是一个组织构成良好有效的管理实践的基本要素。这是一个由递进步骤组成的反复的过程，按顺序进行时，能不断提高决策正确性并且促进产值的不断增长。
为了支持决策方面的设计和操作，需要进行风险分析。它们包括危害物和威胁识别，成因分析，结果分析和风险描述鉴定，然后评估结果。所有的分析和评估将被作为风险评估。其次是风险评估的处理办法，这是一个过程，涉及开发和实施措施来缓和风险，措施包括避免，减少（“优化”），转移或保留风险。风险转移意味着与另一方共同享有利益或承担由于损失造成的风险。它最典型的是受保险的影响。风险管理涵盖了所有协调活动的方向目标和风险组织。
在许多企业中，风险管理的任务分为三大类：战略风险，财务风险和经营风险。战略风险包括对于企业的长期战略和计划起重要作用的方面和因素，例如兼并和收购，技术，竞争，政治环境，法律和法规，以及劳工市场。财务风险包括影响企业财务状况的因素，包括：市场风险，商品和服务，外汇汇率和证券的相关成本（股票，债权等）；信用风险，与债务人没有按照其约定的有关条款履行
义务；流动性风险，反映现金缺乏时，及时出售资产的困难。操作风险是有关条件影响正常工作的情况：意外的事件，包括故障和缺陷，质量差，自然灾害；预期行为，破坏，心怀不满的雇员等；丧失竞争力，关键人员；与法律环境下相关的，例如有缺陷合同及责任保险。
一个企业要成功实施风险管理，需要高层管理人员参与，活动必须落实在许多层面上。确保成功的要点是一个风险管理战略的确立，例如企业如何定义和实施风险管理的原则。难道仅仅只需遵照监管要求（最低要求），或追求“成为最好的”？企业风险管理过程的建立，包括企业贯彻的正式流程和常规。建立管理结构，包括角色和责任分配，这样，风险分析过程和组织融为一体。分析和支持系统的实施，如风险工具分析，执行，记录系统各种类型的事件的发生等。沟通，培训和发展风险管理文化，这样，组织的能力，理解和动机水平得到增强。实施了上述风险管理的基础原则后，下一步是制定可用于实际决策中的原则和方法。然而，这并不是那么简单，还有一系列的挑战，在这里我们列举其中一些：为不同的风险选择建立一个丰富的风险信息平台，将其运用到风险决策环境中。这意味着正确认识不确定因素的风险指数和风险评估。在风险决策方面则意味着接受风险的定义和准则，成本效益分析和安全风险管理原则，风险应该降低到实际合理的最低水平。
定义和描述关于风险的概率和预期性价值是常见的现象。然而，这受到了挑战，因为概率和预期值的不确定性是隐蔽的。概率的分配都是有条件的基于数量的简单假设和推测，他们依据的是背景知识。不确定性往往是隐藏在这个背景知识后面，注意限制性是由于给定的概率而产生的，这些因素的隐蔽性可能产生令人惊讶的结果。直接考虑到了重要的不确定性因素容易被阻隔的可能性，而潜在的惊喜可能会是你不曾考虑到的。
让我们举一个例子，通过20世纪70年代风险分析师分析海上石油项目工作的有关潜水员未来健康的问题来考虑风险。该分析师对潜水员在未来30年中将经历的由于潜水活动而产生的健康问题（正确的定义）分配一个价值概率。让我们假设1%的价值被分配，以当时的知识为基础是合适的。没有强烈的迹象表明潜水员会遇到健康问题，但在今天我们知道这些概率导致了较少的预测。许多潜水员们已出现了严重的健康问题（Avon和Vine，2007）。通过限制单独作业风险
的概率，不确定性和风险的重要方面被隐藏了。由于对深层次的现象缺乏了解，单独作业的概率不能充分描述这种状态。
一些危险的观点和定义已被提出并且已被证实符合这个现实。例如，Avon （2007a，2008a）把风险定义为事件/后果和相关不确定性的二维组合（将发生的事件，后果将是什么）。Avon和Renan（2008a）建议从一个密切相关的角度将风险定义为有关不确定性活动及其产生的严重后果，其严重性是指强度，大小，扩展，范围和其他潜在的关于人类价值（生活，环境，金钱等）的大小措施。损失和收益，例如以货币形式或死亡人数表述的，是界定后果的严重程度的方法。另见Avon和Christensen（2005）。
在具有较大不确定性的情况下，风险评估可以支持决策，但其他原则，措施和手段也需要，如警示、预防原则，以及鲁棒性和弹性战略。决策依据的信息是必要的，但应比单独通过概率分析所得到的更加细微化。这一点被许多研究者所强调，如Apostolicism （1990）和Apostolicism与Lemon（2005）：定性分析（QRA）的结果永远不是决策的唯一基础。安全和与安全相关的决策是风险告知，而不是基于风险的。这个结论仅仅是通过一些超出预期值的概率的需求来确定的，是不确切的。这里的主要问题是，风险需要与其他关注相平衡。
当各种解决方案和措施被进行比较并作出决定时，分析和已进行的评估提供了这样一个决定性的依据，在许多情况下，已有的设计原则和标准提供了明确的指导。这些原则和标准必须成为首批评估风险的参考点。这是常见的思维，风险管理流程，特别是安全风险管理过程，需要正规或标准指导（例如风险，验收标准和成本效益指数），以简化决策。值得注意的是，当使用这种类型的决策标准时要进行陈列，因为它们很容易导致决策过程机械化。这种机械化是不好的，因为：决策标准基于风险有关的数字本身（概率和预期值）并不能捕获所有方面的风险，成本和效益。没有方法精确证明机械化结果是否超过或低于标准的基础数值。在不确定性条件下做出决策属于管理责任，管理应该意识到有关的风险和不确定性。
Apostolicism 和Lemon（2005）采取务实的态度进行风险分析和风险管理，承认确定攻击的概率是困难的。理想的情况下，他们想根据预期值实行风险告知程序，但是，因为这种做法需要将尚未使用的概率“严格推导”，他们被迫采取
更务实的态度。
当面临很大的不确定性问题时这是一个可行的方法。风险分析根本就没有为决策过程提供一个充分坚实的基础。我们认为沿着同样的思路来考虑，这需要一个管理审查和判断需要的过程。要看到，它超出了在概率和预期值下计算风险图的形式，传统的定量风险分析的失败就在于此。我们认识到风险分析的需要，但问题是在很大的不确定性情况下执行传统的定量风险分析的价值增值。由于预算的不确定性，或作为一种不确定性评估结果被分析师强烈依赖，产能的任意性是显著的。
应当承认，风险无法准确表示概率和预期值的使用。如上面的例子所示，定量风险分析在许多情况下被一个更为定性的方法所取代，一个可称为半定量方法的方法。量化风险利用预期的死亡人数等风险指数，提供了一个风险可以用非常精确的方式表达的印象。然而，在大多数情况下，它的随意性大。在一个半定量的方法中，这是公认的提供了更细致入微的风险图片，包括相对于概率和预期值可能会导致“意外”的因素。量化往往需要强有力的简化和假设，因此，重要的因素可能被忽略或给予太少（或太多）的关注。定性或半定量分析中，更全面的风险图片可以在考虑到潜在的风险影响因素时成立。与广泛使用的定量风险分析相反，它们对风险描述的精确度与风险工具分析的准确性是一致的。此外，风险量化的资源非常苛刻，需要检查资源是否以最好的方式被使用。我们的结论是：在很多情况下更多的是通过更广泛的开发方式，更注重质量的办法获得资源，它允许考虑超出概率和预期值。
从传统的定量风险评估看，例如在核和石油及天然气行业通过计算概率和预期值，提供了比较狭窄的风险图片，我们认为这种方法具有很大的不确定性问题，应该谨慎使用。替代办法突出了质量方面的问题在这种情况下更合适，一个广泛的风险描述是必需的。这也是含糊不清的情况在规范的情况下，风险特征提供了风险评估进程的基础。主要关注的是价值判断，他们通过坚实的科学评估，试图证明他们对过于狭窄的风险方法已采纳，是在科学的基础上合理的接受风险，显示了风险情况应该得到广泛的支持。承认在有较大的不确定性和规范有含糊之处的案件中，不确定性作为风险的主要组成部分是成功实施风险管理必不可少的。
一个描述风险的内容应包括计算概率和预期值，以及敏感性风险显示指数如
何依背景知识（假设和推测）而定；不确定性评估；背景知识说明，包括模型和数据使用。
这种不确定性评估不应局限于标准的概率分析，这种分析可能隐藏重要的不确定性因素。这种定量搜索，明确表达了不确定性的方法，甚至超越了主观概率，似乎是值得考虑的方向。然而，这种做法是不推荐的。试图精确和准确地表达什么是极不确定是没有意义的。相反，我们推荐一个更开放的定性方法去揭示这种不确定性。有些人可能认为从科学的角度和方法来说这是缺乏吸引力的，也许是，但它更适合于解决当前的问题，分析有关管理风险和不确定性。
出处:泰耶·艾文.《风险管理》.技术系统风险，2010（10）:P175-198.
金融风险管理案例
《金融风险管理案例分析》 ——华谊兄弟 姓名：周冰倩 学院：行知学院商学分院 专业：金融学
学号：12856218 金融风险管理案例分析之华谊兄弟 前言： 在21世纪初的中国娱乐业市场，涌现出一批商业巨头，而华谊公司正是个中翘楚。从一家小型的广告公司，到如今庞大的商业帝国，华谊走过了一条不可思议的崛起之路。当然，时势造英雄，这不仅仅归功于王中军王中磊两位创始人的商业才能，也要归功于繁荣的中国市场。 华谊概况： 华谊兄弟传媒集团是中国大陆一家知名综合性民营娱乐集团，于1994年创立。1998年正式进入电影行业，因投资冯小刚的贺岁片而声名鹊起，随后全面进入传媒产业，投资及运营电影、电视剧、艺人经纪、唱片、娱乐营销等领域，在这些领域都取得了不错的成绩。时至今日，华谊兄弟传媒集团已经发展成为一个涵盖广告、影视、音乐、发行、艺术设计、建筑、汽车梢售、文化经纪、投资等的大型民营企业集团，并于2009年10月30日创业板正式上市。 一．信用风险： 信用风险又称违约风险，是指借款人、证券发行人或交易对方因种种原因，不愿或无力履行合同条件而构成违约，致使银行、投资者或交易对方遭受损失的可能性。 我认为可能会导致出现信用风险的原因有两个：
（1）经济运行的周期性。 （2）是对于公司经营有影响的特殊事件的发生。 宏观经济与政策环境： 2013年起，全球经济逐渐复苏，中国经济保持稳定的增长态势，经济运行总体平稳。2014年将是中国全面深化改革的重要一年，中国经济的主要特征是由高速增长向中高速增长转换。伴随着这种增速转换，中国经济的结构性调整特征十分明显，服务业发展动能逐渐增强。国内外良好的经济环境和国内深化改革的政策目标都将刺激中国服务业，第三产业的发展。 行业态势： 优势： 1.中国电影产业规模快速增长，为大型电影企业提供了发展机会。而且娱乐影视这整个行业发展快，对优质作品需求大，有利于公司发挥自身优势满足市场需求，保持行业领先地位。 2.华谊拥有出色的制作、宣传与发行能力，在国产大片市场处于优势地位；电视剧制作实力强产量高；艺人经纪业务拥有艺人数量超过百人。公司独创的经营管理模式，有助于降低风险保证收益。 3.公司以工作室独立运营进行作品创作等经营管理模式，有助于公司降低经营风险，取得最大收益。公司产业完整，影视资源丰富，电影、电视剧和艺人经纪三大业务板块有效整合，协同发展，在产业链完整性和影视资源丰富性方面有较为突出的优势。 劣势： 1.虽然我国电影产量已初具规模，但其中具备较高商业价值的影片数量仍然较少，高质量影片供应量的增加将直接推动电影票房收入的增长。 2.影片产量和放映数量均在增长，但银幕数量以及高质量影片的供应不足限制了整个行业的发展速度。规模大，产业链完整，运作高效的电影企业将在发展中获胜。 综上所述，尽管存在着一些不利因素，但总体来看，电视剧市场以及国内外的经济环境外部因素都是有利于华谊公司的发展的。因此，外部环境对该公司造成的信用风险的压力较小。 华谊重大事件年表： 1994年，华谊兄弟广告公司创立 1997年，年销售额达6亿，进入中国十大广告公司行列 2000年，并购金牌经纪人王京花的经纪公司，成立华谊兄弟时代经纪有限公司；太合控股2000万入股，成立华谊兄弟太合影视投资公司 2001年，成立华谊兄弟太合文化经纪有限公司 2002年，华谊取得西影股份发行公司超过40%的股份 2004年，出资3000万收购战国音乐，成立华谊兄弟音乐有限公司；TOM集团出资500万美元收购华谊27%的股权，华谊更名为华谊兄弟传媒集团 2005年，中国最大SP之一华友世纪对华谊兄弟音乐有限公司进行超过3500万战略性投资；华谊以3500万入股天音公司成立新的天音传媒有限公司；金牌经纪人王京花带领一些艺人跳槽橙天娱乐
财务管理外文翻译
财务风险管理 尽管近年来金融风险大大增加，但风险和风险管理不是当代的主要问题。全球市场越来越多的问题是，风险可能来自几千英里以外的与这些事件无关的国外市场。意味着需要的信息可以在瞬间得到，而其后的市场反应，很快就发生了。经济气候和市场可能会快速影响外汇汇率变化、利率及大宗商品价格，交易对手会迅速成为一个问题。因此，重要的一点是要确保金融风险是可以被识别并且管理得当的。准备是风险管理工作的一个关键组成部分。 什么是风险？ 风险给机会提供了基础。风险和暴露的条款让它们在含义上有了细微的差别。风险是指有损失的可能性，而暴露是可能的损失，尽管他们通常可以互换。风险起因是由于暴露。金融市场的暴露影响大多数机构，包括直接或间接的影响。当一个组织的金融市场暴露，有损失的可能性，但也是一个获利或利润的机会。金融市场的暴露可以提供战略性或竞争性的利益。 风险损失的可能性事件来自如市场价格的变化。事件发生的可能性很小，但这可能导致损失率很高，特别麻烦，因为他们往往比预想的要严重得多。换句话说，可能就是变异的风险回报。由于它并不总是可能的，或者能满意地把风险消除，在决定如何管理它中了解它是很重要的一步。识别暴露和风险形式的基础需要相应的财务风险管理策略。 财务风险是如何产生的呢？ 无数金融性质的交易包括销售和采购，投资和贷款，以及其他各种业务活动，产生了财务风险。它可以出现在合法的交易中，新项目中，兼并和收购中，债务融资中，能源部分的成本中，或通过管理的活动，利益相关者，竞争者，外国政府，或天气出现。当金融的价格变化很大，它可以增加成本，降低财政收入，或影响其他有不利影响的盈利能力的组织。金融波动可能使人们难以规划和预算商品和服务的价格，并分配资金。 有三种金融风险的主要来源： 1、金融风险起因于组织所暴露出来的市场价格的变化，如利率、汇率、和大宗商品价格。 2、引起金融风险的行为有与其他组织的交易如供应商、客户，和对方在金融衍生产品中的交易。 3、由于内部行动或失败的组织，特别是人、过程和系统所造成的金融风险。 什么是财务风险管理？ 财务风险管理是用来处理金融市场中不确定的事情的。它涉及到一个组织所面临的评估和组织的发展战略、内部管理的优先事项和当政策一致时的财务风险。企业积极应对金融风险可以使企业成为一个具有竞争优势的组织。它还确保管理，业务人员，利益相关者，董事会董事在对风险的关键问题达成协议。金融风险管理组织就必须作出那些不被接受的有关风险的决定。那些被动不采取行动的战略是在默认情况下接受所有的风险，组织使用各种策略和产品来管理金融风险。重要的是要了解这些产品和战略方面，通过工作来减少该组织内的风险承受能力和目标范围内的风险。 风险管理的策略往往涉及衍生工具。在金融机构和有组织的交易所，衍生物广泛地进行
企业风险管理外文文献翻译2014年译文5000字
文献出处：Bedard J C, Hoitash R, et al. The development of the enterprise risk management theory [J]. Contemporary Accounting Research, 2014, 30(4): 64-95. （声明：本译文归百度文库所有，完整译文请到百度文库。） 原文 The development of the enterprise risk management theory Bedard J C, Hoitash R Abstract Enterprise risk management as an important field of risk management disciplines, in more than 50 years of development process of the implementation of dispersing from multiple areas of research to the integration of comprehensive risk management framework evolution, the theory of risk management and internal audit and control theory are two major theoretical sources of risk management theory has experienced from the traditional risk management, financial volatility to the development of the enterprise risk management, risk management and internal audit and control theory went through the internal accounting control and internal control integrated framework to the evolution of enterprise risk management, the development of the theory of the above two points to the direction of the enterprise risk management, finally realizes the integration development, enterprise risk management theory to become an important part of enterprise management is indispensable. Keywords: enterprise risk management, internal audit the internal control 1 The first theory source, evolution of the theory of risk management "Risk management" as a kind of operation and management idea, has a long history: thousands of years ago in the west have "don't put all eggs in one basket" the proverb, the ancient Chinese famous "product valley hunger" allusions and "yicang ("
财务风险管理外文翻译
本科毕业论文（设计） 外文翻译 Financial Risk Management Although financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management. What Is Risk? Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure. Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits. Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns. Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it.
风险管理雷曼兄弟案例分析报告
目录 1.雷曼兄弟简介 (1) 2.雷曼兄弟破产过程 (1) 3.雷曼兄弟破产原因分析 (3) 3.1 自身原因 (3) 3.2 外部原因 (6) 4.应对措施及建议 (8)
1.雷曼兄弟简介 雷曼兄弟控股公司是美国第四大投资银行。作为一家全球性的投资银行，雷曼兄弟公司具有158年的历史。其雄厚的财务实力，以及“全球最具实力股票债券承销交易商”的名号可以追述到一个世纪前。 雷曼公司的业务能力一直受到众多世界知名公司的广泛认可。它不仅担任这些跨国公司和政府的重要财务顾问，同时拥有多名业界公认的国际最佳分析师。由此，它在很多业务领域都居于全球领先地位，包括股票、固定收益、交易和研究、投资银行业务、私人银行业务、资产管理以及风险投资。这一切都有助于雷曼兄弟稳固其在业务领域的领导地位。《商业周刊》评选雷曼兄弟公司为2000年最佳投资银行，《国际融资评论》授予其2002年度最佳投资银行称号，其整体调研实力也高居《机构投资者》排名榜榜首。 这样一家信誉名声都响彻业界的全球性多元化投资银行，于北京时间2008年9月15日，在次级抵押贷款市场危机加剧的形势下，丢盔弃甲。根据美国破产法，美国第四大投资银行雷曼兄弟控股公司向美国联邦破产法庭递交破产保护申请。以资产衡量，这是美国金融业最大的一宗公司破产案。 2.雷曼兄弟破产过程 表1罗列了自2007年夏天美国的次贷危机爆发以来，金融市场上所发生的一些重大事件和雷曼兄弟是如何一步步走向破产的。 表1 雷曼兄弟破产过程
3.1自身原因 1. 进入不熟悉的业务，且发展太快，业务过于集中。 作为一家顶级的投资银行，雷曼兄弟在很长一段时间内注重于传统的投资银行业务（证券发行承销，兼并收购顾问等）。 进入20世纪90年代后，随着固定收益产品、金融衍生品的流行和交易的飞速发展，雷曼兄弟也大力拓展了这些领域的业务，并取得了巨大的成功，被称为华尔街上的“债券之王”。 在2000年后房地产和信贷这些非传统的业务蓬勃发展之后，雷曼兄弟和其它华尔街上的银行一样，开始涉足此类业务。这本无可厚非，但雷曼的扩张速度太快（美林、贝尔斯登、摩根士丹利等也存在相同的问题）。雷曼兄弟破产前的几年一直是住宅抵押债券和商业地产债券的顶级承销商和账簿管理人。即使是在房地产市场下滑的2007年，雷曼兄弟的商业地产债券业务仍然增长了约13%。这样一来，雷曼兄弟面临的系统性风险非常大。在市场情况好的年份，整个市场都在向上，市场流动性泛滥，投资者被乐观情绪所蒙蔽，巨大的系统性风险给雷曼带来了巨大的收益；可是当市场崩溃的时候，如此大的系统风险必然带来巨大的负面影响。 2. 财务结构不合理，自身资本太少，杠杆率太高且过度依赖短期融资。 以雷曼为代表的投资银行与花旗、摩根大通、美洲银行等综合性银行不同，它们的自有资本太少，资本充足率太低。为了筹集资金来扩大业务，它们只好依赖债券市场和银行间拆借市场，在债券市场发债来满足中长期资金的需求，在银
项目管理外文翻译----ERP项目实施成功因素和风险管理
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金融风险案例分析
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案例一：法国兴业银行巨亏 一、案情 2008年1月18日,法国兴业银行收到了一封来自另一家大银行的电子邮件,要求确认此前约定的一笔交易,但法国兴业银行和这家银行根本没有交易往来。因此,兴业银行进行了一次内部查清,结果发现,这是一笔虚假交易。伪造邮件的是兴业银行交易员凯维埃尔。更深入地调查显示,法国兴业银行因凯维埃尔的行为损失了49亿欧元,约合71亿美元。 凯维埃尔从事的是什么业务,导致如此巨额损失?欧洲股指期货交易,一种衍生金融工具产品。早在2005年6月,他利用自己高超的电脑技术,绕过兴业银行的五道安全限制,开始了违规的欧洲股指期货交易,“我在安联保险上建仓,赌股市会下跌。不久伦敦地铁发生爆炸,股市真的大跌。我就像中了头彩……盈利50万欧元。”2007年,凯维埃尔再赌市场下跌,因此大量做空,他又赌赢了,到2007年12月31日,他的账面盈余达到了14亿欧元,而当年兴行银行的总盈利不过是55亿欧元。从2008年开始,凯维埃尔认为欧洲股指上涨,于是开始买涨。然后,欧洲乃至全球股市都在暴跌,凯维埃尔的巨额盈利转眼变成了巨大损失。 二、原因 1.风险巨大,破坏性强。由于衍生金融工具牵涉的金额巨大,一旦出现亏损就将引起较大的震动。巴林银行因衍生工具投机导致9.27亿英镑的亏损,最终导致拥有233年历史、总投资59亿英镑的老牌银行破产。法国兴业银行事件中,损失达到71亿美元,成为历史上最大规模的金融案件,震惊了世界。 2.暴发突然,难以预料。因违规进行衍生金融工具交易而受损、倒闭的投资机构,其资产似乎在一夜间就化为乌有,暴发的突然性往往出乎人们的预料。巴林银行在1994年底税前利润仍为1.5亿美元,而仅仅不到3个月后,它就因衍生工具上巨额损失而破产。中航油(新加坡)公司在破产的6个月前,其CEO还公开宣称公司运行良好,风险极低,在申请破产的前1个月前,还被新加坡证券委员会授予“最具透明度的企业”。 3.原因复杂,不易监管。衍生金融工具风险的产生既有金融自由化、金融市场全球化等宏观因素,也有管理层疏于监督、金融企业内部控制不充分等微观因素,形成原因比较复杂,即使是非常严格的监管制度,也不能完全避免风险。像法兴银行这个创建于拿破仑时代的银行,内部风险控制不可谓不严,但凯维埃尔还是获得了非法使用巨额资金的权限,违规操作近一年才被发现。这警示我们,再严密的规章制度,再安全的电脑软件,都可能存在漏洞。对银行系统的风险控制,绝不可掉以轻心,特别是市场繁荣之际,应警惕因盈利而放松正常监管。
商业银行风险管理外文及翻译
外文文献翻译 Commercial Bank Risk Management : An Analysis of the Process
外文文献： Commercial Bank Risk Management: An Analysis of the Process Abstract Throughout the past year, on-site visits to financial service firms were conducted to review and evaluate their financial risk management systems. The commercial banking analysis covered a number of North American super-regionals and quasi±money-center institutions as well as several firms outside the U.S. The information obtained covered both the philosophy and practice of financial risk management. This article outlines the results of this investigation. It reports the state of risk management techniques in the industry. It reports the standard of practice and evaluates how and why it is conducted in the particular way chosen. In addition, critiques are offered where appropriate. We discuss the problems which the industry finds most difficult to address, shortcomings of the current methodology used to analyze risk, and the elements that are missing in the current procedures of risk management. 1. Introduction The past decade has seen dramatic losses in the banking industry. Firms that had been performing well suddenly announced large losses due to credit exposures that turned sour, interest rate positions taken, or derivative exposures that may or may not have been assumed to hedge balance sheet risk. In response to this, commercial banks have almost universally embarked upon an upgrading of their risk management and control systems. Coincidental to this activity, and in part because of our recognition of the industry's vulnerability to financial risk, the Wharton Financial Institutions Center, with the support of the Sloan Foundation, has been involved in an analysis of financial risk management processes in the financial sector. Through the past academic year, on-site visits were conducted to review and evaluate the risk management systems and the process of risk evaluation that is in place. In the banking sector, system evaluation was conducted covering many of North America's
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? Risk follows up We will also discuss elements related to decision analysis where risk is involved, and use of life cycle cost and life cycle profit models. The course compendium comprises a large number of exercises, and it is recommended to do most of the exercises in order to get a good understanding of the topics and methods described. A separate MS Excel program, pRisk.xls has been developed in order to assist numerical calculations and to conduct Monte Carlo simulation. 1.2 Definitions Aleatory uncertainty Variation of quantities in a population. We sometimes use the word variability rather than aleatory uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty Lack of knowledge about the “world”, and observable quantities in particular. Dependency The relation between the sequences of the activities in a project. Observable quantity A quantity expressing a state of the “world”, i.e. a quantity of the p hysical reality or nature, that is unknown at the time of the analysis but will, if the system being analyzed is actually implemented, take some value in the future, and possibly become known. Parameter We use the term parameter in two ways in this report. The main use of a parameter is that it is a quantity that is a part of the risk analysis models, and for which we assign numerical values. The more academic definition of a parameter used in a probability
金融银行信用风险管理外文翻译文献
金融银行信用风险管理外文翻译文献 (文档含中英文对照即英文原文和中文翻译) 原文: Managing Credit Risks with Knowledge Management for Financial Banks Pan Jin Department of Economics Economics and Management School of Wuhan University Wuhan,Hubei Province,430072,China Abstract-Nowadays,financial banks are operating in a knowledge society and there are more and more credit risks breaking out in banks.So,this paper first discusses the implications of knowledge and knowledge management, and then analyzes credit risks of financial banks
with knowledge management. Finally, the paper studies ways for banks to manage credit risks with knowledge management. With the application of knowledge management in financial banks, customers will acquire better service and banks will acquire more rewards. Index Terms–knowledge management; credit risk; risk management; incentive mechanism; financial banks I.INTRODUCTION Nowadays,banks are operating in a“knowledge society”.So, what is knowledge? Davenport(1996)[1]thinks knowledge is professional intellect, such as know-what, know-how, know-why, and self-motivated creativity, or experience, concepts, values, beliefs and ways of working that can be shared and communicated. The awareness of the importance of knowledge results in the critical issue of “knowledge management”. So, what is knowledge management? According to Malhothra(2001)[2], knowledge management(KM)caters to the critical issues of organizational adaptation, survival and competence in face of increasingly discontinuous environmental change. Essentially it embodies organizational processes that seek synergistic combination of data and information processing capacity of information technologies and the creative and innovative capacity of human beings. Through the processes of creating,sustaining, applying, sharing and renewing knowledge, we can enhance organizational performance and create value. Many dissertations have studied knowledge managementapplications in some special fields. Aybübe Aurum(2004)[3] analyzes knowledge management in software engineering and D.J.Harvey＆R.Holdsworth(2005)[4]study knowledge management in the aerospace industry. Li Yang(2007)[5] studies knowledge management in information-based education and Jayasundara＆Chaminda Chiran(2008)[6] review the prevailing literature on knowledge management in banking industries. Liang ping and Wu Kebao(2010)[7]study the incentive mechanism of knowledge management in Banking. There are also many papers about risks analysis and risks management. Before the 1980s, the dominant mathematical theory of risks analysis was to describe a pair of random vectors.But,the simplification assumptions and methods used by classical competing risks
项目风险管理文献综述
项目风险管理文献综述 项目的实现过程是一个存在着很多不确定性的过程，因为这一过程是一个复杂的、一次性的、创新性的并且涉及许多关系与变数的过程。 项目风险管理是为了最好地达到项目的目标，识别、分配、应对项目生命周期内风险的科学与艺术，是一种综合性的管理活动，其理论和实践涉及到自然科学、社会科学、工程技术、系统科学、管理科学等多种学科。项目风险管理的目标可以被认为是使潜在机会或回报最大化、使潜在风险最小化。 针对当前我国工程建设中，对风险认识和估计不足，在建设过程中又没有有效的风险防范措施等情况。本文着重从风险的认识、特点、产生原因进行分析，介绍了它的基本概念及其常用的几种风险识别、风险评价和风险应对和监控的方法，提出控制风险的对策措施。 项目风险管理 项目风险是指由于项目所处的环境和条件本身的不确定性，和项目业主、客户、项目组织或项目的某个当事人主观上不能准确预见或控制因数影响，使项目的最终结果与当事人的期望产生悖离，并存在给当事人带来损失的可能性。 工程项目风险的产生 1.政策风险 政策风险是项目实施过程中，由于国家、行业的主管部门对所实施的项目相关的政策、法律法规、规划或标准的更新、更改给项目所带来的风险。对这类风险的管理和控制，首先要保证所实施的项目符合国家的产业政策，还应密切注意与项目相关的法律法规及标准可能发生的变化。如调整国民经济计划、产业政策，强行下令已开工的项目下马，或对一些企业实行关停并转等，许多工程业主不得不因此而改变其投资计划，因此，不可避免要遭受重大损失。再者由于政府角色与地位的特殊性，一旦政府换届就有可能导致工程项目发生变更，由此造成工程项目独特的“政治风险”。 2.市场风险 由于产品和原材料的市场价格及供需变化，产品的市场竞争能力等因素给项目造成的风险。该风险是竞争性项目最常遇到的风险，对项目的收益影响至关重要。避免或减少该风险必须采取综合性措施。一是前期做好市场调研，把握项目的产品市场和原材料市场的变化趋势;在选择时，注重项目产品的生命周期，避开进入衰退期的项目，选择具有市场生命力和发展前景的项目，避免市场风险。二是结合企业发展战略，做好产品市场定位，运用营销策略来降低或化解不利因素的影响，从而减少、降低市场风险。 3.管理风险 指项目管理过程中，由于管理层决策失误、战略调整等管理方面的因素造成的风险，是一种人为的风险，具有主观性、可控性，与项目的组织、管理实施有直接联系。 4.财务风险 项目在实施过程中由于资金融通、资金周转、利率汇率变化使项目可能发生超投资或资金短
金融风险管理案例分析
金融风险管理案例分析 一、案例背景： 2012年9月，借款人金某向银行申请个人经营贷款1笔，借款金额1200万元，期限为1年期，借款用途为其所任职的地暖管材公司（以下简称A公司）日常经营购进生产原材料，借款人在该公司任总经理职务。为确保该笔贷款的顺利申请，借款人金某提供其个人担任法人的商贸公司（以下简称B公司，注册资金500万元）的厂房及用地，作为该笔贷款的抵押物，向银行提供担保。抵押物位于大兴区物流包装基地，建筑面积7000平方米，房屋及土地的总评估价值为2400万元，目前带有10年以上的租约，年租金约为260万元，承租方为汉拿山餐饮集团。由于该厂房需要作为该笔贷款的抵押物，因此借款人出具了承租方签署的放弃第一顺位回购权的承诺函，承诺若该厂房因借款人出现违约情况，银行需要处置该抵押物时，放弃优先收购该厂房的权利。 二、案例经过： 在经过现场调查及相关审批后，银行原则上同意发放该笔贷款，但是要求在厂房抵押的基础上，追加某担保公司作为连带责任保证人，在接到担保公司的担保函后才能发放该笔贷款。担保公司接到该笔担保申请后，经过现场调查后，基本认可了该笔贷款的用途及抵押物情况，准备与借款申请人签订相关委托担保合同后，向中信银行出具贷款担保函，协助银行完成后续放款手续。 但是在与借款人面签担保合同时，担保公司业务人员发现该借款人所携带的用款企业A公司的公章，与之前预留印鉴不符，经过相关部门鉴定核实后确认为私刻的假公章。经过询问借款人得知，因A公司法人为外籍人士，长期不在本市，公章随身携带。为了方便开展业务、配合银行早日发放贷款，才私刻公章，并无骗贷意图。但是这种信用风险已经引起了担保公司方面的重视，随即提高了反担保措施的等级，要求在抵押物的基础上，将借款人所属B公司的99%股权，暂时转让到担保人名下，在发生借款人违约的情况下，能以最快速度处置抵押物，维护自己的权益。如借款期限内借款人未出现违约情况，则贷款到期后，再将股权转回至借款人的B公司名下。