中国社会科学院研究生院博士学位论文

中国社会科学院研究生院博士学位论文

全球化时代的南北经济关系——

北美自由贸易协定对墨西哥的影响

杨志敏

指导教师：江时学职称：研究员

系别：拉美系专业名称：世界经济

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2006年5月

摘要

20世纪90年代以来，随着全球化进程的深入发展，南北关系由以往的对立、僵滞为主的阶段进入以合作为主的阶段后，南北型的区域经济集团开始在历史舞台发挥巨大的作用，并在区域经济合作中逐渐占据了主导地位。其中，北美自由贸易区（NAFTA）的成功建立，不仅标志世界第一个真正意义上的“南北型区”域一体化组织诞生的，而且标志由此美国对地区主义的态度发生重大转折，以及南北关系发生深刻变化。

20世纪40年代至1982年期间，墨西哥的发展模式在错失了两次重要的转向机会，并付出了“债务危机”的代价后，开始进行新自由主义经济改革，而加入NAFTA可谓是墨西哥经济改革的一个高潮。墨西哥加入NAFTA的动力在于：适应全球经济格局发生的变化、“美国—加拿大自由贸易区”的示范作用、希望获得确保本国的经济改革取得的成效“承诺机制”，以及“客户工业”迅速崛起的发展经验。

十余年来，关于加入NAFTA对墨西哥的影响可谓众说纷纭，其中主要存在三种评价：积极评价、消极评价和折中评价。但是经过有关学者的数量模型的分析、世界银行和国际货币基金组织的研究表明：NAFTA在对墨西哥的经济增长、外国直接投资（FDI）的流入、出口的增长、生产率的提高，以及制度保障方面的成效是巨大的。总体上讲，NAFTA对于墨西哥的影响是积极的，取得的成效是显著的。但是，在看到NAFTA给墨西哥经济社会发展带来积极意义的同时，对于一些至今还在争议的问题，以及在此过程中墨西哥自身实行的具体政策的不力也必须引起我们的再思考。其中，在“三农”、客户工业企业、生产率和工资水平增长、向美国和加拿大的移民、环境保护以及结构性改革等方面存在的问题。因此，对于墨西哥来讲，今后如何最大化其中的有利影响，最小化其中的不利影响，从而采取正确的宏观经济、社会和法律政策，来规避存在的问题是其着重努力的方向。

经验研究表明，总体上NAFTA没有使其他拉美贸易集团（或国家）遭受贸易转移的损失；尽管在NAFTA建立的短期内使中国对美国的出口、尤其是纺织品服装的出口遭受了贸易转移效应的损失，但是长期内造成没有大的影响。近年来，中国与NAFTA成员——墨西哥双边贸易快速增长的同时，双方之间还存在一些突出的问题：双边贸易额的统计差距较大问题；贸易摩擦问题；在第三方市场（主要是美国）上的竞争问题，以及对中国的完全市场经济地位的承认问题。

墨西哥加入NAFTA以来获得的启示表明：NAFTA实施的“广度”有待拓展，“深度”有待挖掘；NAFTA的规则中存在的一些弊端对墨西哥的不利之处显现；NAFTA在提高了墨西哥经济效率的同时却忽视了均衡发展；NAFTA与其他协定一道从制度上“锁定”了墨西哥今后改革的方向；NAFTA并非是保障墨西哥经济稳定发展的“万灵药（Panacea）”。为此，墨西哥今后的改革方向在于：对贸易部门和非贸易部门进行合理的资源配置；加强对制约提高国际竞争力的重要部门的改革；加强在人力资本方面的投资和培训；金融领域的改革应使信贷向私人部门倾斜；加快劳动力市场改革的步伐；继续制订一个满足人民基本需求的政策；重视合法地向国外移民对经济发展的重要作用；建立与可持续发展相适应的经济绩效评价体系。因为对外开放必须与国内改革相结合，必须建立一个与开放的世界相匹配的国内政策、体制环境

实践证明，NAFTA对于美洲区域经济一体化的未来发展，尤其是对拟议中的美洲自由贸易区（FTAA）的建立具有重要的意义。这主要体现在：NAFTA是FTAA的重要蓝本、NAFTA 成员中的墨西哥成为建立FTAA的坚定支持者、NAFTA对未来的FTAA的建立具有“实验室”的意义。当然，FTAA最终建立还需要克服和解决相当多的难题。

关键词：全球化南北经济关系墨西哥北美自由贸易协定

Abstract

North-South regional economic cooperation groups have played an important role in world arena since North-South relations were transformed from hostility into cooperation in the 1990s, an era that globalization grows more rapidly than ever. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is the first institution in the world created by the North-South cooperation. U.S. has changed its attitude to regionalism and the North-South relations are experiencing a profound transformation.

From the 1940s to the early 1980s, Mexico had missed two opportunities for development, and suffered a severe debt crisis in the 1980s. In order to overcome this plaguing crisis, Mexico adopted a new development strategy and carried out neo-liberalism economic reform. Joining U.S.-initiated NAFTA is a key step for this reform. The impetus of Mexico to join this agreement is to face globalization and promote rapid development of domestic maquiladora enterprises.

In more than one decade, NAFTA’s influence on Mexican economy and politics can be summarized into three categories: positive, negative and modest. Analysis made by some scholars on the basis of quantity model and studies by the World Bank and IMF show that NAFTA has contributed greatly to Mexican economic growth, FDI inflow, export expansion, productivity improvement and institutional building. As a whole, the positive influence on Mexico is obvious. However, by integrating its economy with its northern neighbors, the Mexican government hasn’t done its best to implement policies of adjustment. Therefore, there are many problems regarding rural development, wage increase for the workers in maquiladora, non-documented immigrants to US and Canada, environment protection and structural reform. Mexico should make great efforts to maximize the positive impact, minimize the negative ones and take proper measures to avoid negative problems in the future.

Studies on NAFTA experience in the past decade show that growing economic cooperation between Mexico and the other two NAFTA members has not led other trade groups or countries in Latin America to suffer losses. It has some effects on China’s export to the United States in the short term, especially for textile products. In recent years, although bilateral trade between China and Mexico has been growing rapidly, disputes over the bilateral trade statistics, trade frictions, competition in US market and China’s full market status stand out.

NAFTA’s impact on Mexico indicates that cooperation among NAFTA members should be expanded and deepened. Some regulations under NAFTA are disadvantageous to Mexican economic development. These regulations have led Mexico to unbalanced development though they have fixed its future reform direction. Definitely, NAFTA is not Panacea to Mexican economic stability. The future effort for Mexico is to collocate resources in trade and non-trade section, enhance human resources investment and training, intensify financial reform, emphasize private credit service, expedite the reform of labor market and attach importance to emigrant management.

NAFTA’s experience has proved that it bears significance for future development of regional economic integration and set an example for FTAA. Mexico strongly supports the formation of FTAA, and NAFTA’s experience can be used as the reference to FTAA. However, we should also notice that on the way to form FTAA there still exist some difficulties.

Key Words: NAFTA Globalization North and South Economic Relations Mexico