2017-经济学人-双语-Many rupee returns
Indian economics
印度经济
Many rupee returns
大量卢比返还
The impact of India’s radical monetary reform is becoming clear
印度激进货币改革的影响日渐清醒
MOST economists might hazard a guess that voiding the bulk of a country’s currency overnight would dent its immediate growth prospects. On November 8th India took this abstruse thought experiment into the real world, scrapping two banknotes which made up 86% of all rupees in circulation. Predictably, the economy appears indeed to have been hobbled by the sudden “demonetisation”. Evidence of the measure’s costs is mounting, while the benefits look ever more uncertain.
大多数经济学家可能都会大胆猜测，假如突然废除一个国家的大部分货币，将会损害其短期增长前景。去年11月8日印度将这一匪夷所思的思维实验付诸实践，废除了两种面额的纸币，共占卢比流通总量的86%。不出所料，该国经济似乎的确因为突如其来的“废钞令”而步履蹒跚。这一举措造 成损失的证据正逐渐增加，而好处看起来则更不确定。
At least the new year has brought a semblance of monetary normality. For seven weeks queues had snaked around banks, the main way for Indians to exchange their old notes for new ones or deposit them in their accounts. That is over, largely because the
window to exchange money closed on December 30th. The number of fresh notes that can be withdrawn from ATMs or bank counters is still curtailed, but the acute cash shortage is abating, at least in big cities.
至少新的一年来临时，货币使用貌似已恢复正常。此前连续七周，银行门 前都排起蜿蜒的长龙，这是印度人以旧币换新币或是将旧币存入自己账户 的主要途径。如今此景不再，主要是因为兑换旧币的窗口已在12月30日关闭。能从自动取款机或银行柜台提取的新币数量仍然有限，但至少在大城市，严重的现金荒已在缓解。
As data trickle through, so is evidence of the economic price paid for demonetisation. Consumers, companies and investors all wobbled in late 2016. Fast-moving consumer goods, usually a reliable growth sector, retrenched by 1-1.5% in November, according to Nielsen, a research group. Bigger-ticket items seem to have been hit harder. Year-on-year sales at Hero Motocorp, the biggest purveyor of two-wheelers, slid by more than a third in December.
随着数据慢慢积累，为废钞令付出经济代价的证据也不断增多。2016年 底，消费者、公司和投资者的信心都有所动摇。根据调研
集团尼尔森 (Nielsen)的数据，通常增长稳定的快速消费品行业去年11月缩减了 1%至 1.5%。价格更高的商品似乎遭受了更大的冲击。最大的摩托车供应商英雄 摩托公司（Hero Motocorp)的销售额去
年12月同比下跌超过三分之一。
A survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing plunged from relative optimism throughout 2016 to the expectation of mild contraction. Firms’ investment proposals fell from an average of
2.4trn rupees ($35bn) a quarter to just 1.25trn rupees in the one just ended, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a data provider. As a result, corporate-credit growth, already anaemic, has reached its lowest rate in at least 30 years (see chart).
对制造业采购经理的一项调查显示，他们的心态从2016年全年的
相对乐观 骤变为对温和紧缩的预期。根据数据提供商印度经济监测中心（Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy)的统计，公司投
资计划从每季度平均2.4万亿 卢比（350亿美元）下跌至刚结束这一季度的仅1.25万亿卢比。这导致本已 疲软的公司信货增长率跌
至至少30年来的最低点（见图表）。
All this amounts to “a significant but not catastrophic” impact, says Shilan Shah of Capital Economics, a consultancy. Annual GDP growth forecasts for the fiscal year ending in March have slipped
by around half a percentage point, to under 7%, from an actual rate of 7.3% in the last full quarter before demonetisation. Other factors, such as the rise in the oil price and the surge in the value
of the dollar after the election of Donald Trump, are also at play.
咨询公司凯投宏观（Capital Economics)的希兰?沙阿（Shilan Shah)指 出，所有这些集合在一起，造成了“严重但并非灾难性的”影响。对将于3月 截止的财政年度GDP年增长率的预测已下降约0.5个百分点，至7%不到，而 实施废钞令前最后一个完整季度的
实际增长率还是7.3%。油价上涨和特朗普当选后美元飙升等其他因素也起到了作用。
Whether the costs of the exercise justify the benefits depends, of course, on what those benefits are. In his speech announcing the measure, Narendra Modi, the prime minister, highlighted combating corruption and untaxed wealth. Gangsters and profiteers with suitcases full of money would be left stranded. But reports suggest that nearly i5trn rupees of the i54trn rupees taken out of circulation are now accounted for. So either the rich weren’t hoarding as much “black money” as was supposed, or they have proved adept at laundering it. The Indian press is full of tales of household staff paid months in advance in old notes, or of bankers agreeing to exchange vast sums illegally.
当然，这次行动的好处是否可以弥补所付出的代价取决于这些好处
是什么。总理莫迪在宣布这一举措时强调了打击腐败和逃税。拥有
成箱现金的 黑帮分子和投机商将会陷入窘境。但报告显示，退出流通的15.4万亿卢比中，目前已有近15万亿入账。这样看来，要么
富人所囤积的“黑钱”数额并不如先前以为的那么大，要么他们不
愧为洗钱老手。印度媒体上各种故事满天飞，有的说一些佣人提前
几个月就拿到了以旧币支付的工资，也的有 说银行人员同意非法兑换巨额货币。
Fans of demonetisation point to three beneficial outcomes. First, banks, laden with fresh deposits, will lend this money out and so boost the economy. Big banks cut lending rates early this month (quite possibly nudged by government, the largest shareholder of most of them). But their lending recently has not been constrained by a lack of deposits, so much as by insufficient shareholder capital to absorb potential losses, and by the over-borrowed balance-sheets of many industrial customers.
废钞令的支持者们指出了三大正面的结果。第一，新增大量存款的银行会借出这些钱，继而促进经济。大型银行在本月初降低了货款利率（很可能 由政府推动，政府是多数大型银行最大的股东）。但是它们的货款近来并没有太受存款短缺的限制，对其影响更多的是用以吸收潜在损失的股东资本不足，以及很多工业客户负债过度。
Second, Indians will move from living cash in hand into the taxed formal economy. Mr Modi has recently promoted the idea of a cashless, or “less- cash”，India (not something mentioned at the outset), as one reason for demonetisation. Progress towards getting Indians to pay for things electronically is indeed being made, but from an abysmally low base.
第二，印度人将从拿着现金过日子步入征税的正规经济。莫迪最近宣称要 创造一个无现金或“少现金”的印度是废钞行动的原因之一（这在该行动伊始并未提及）。让印度人实现电子支付的确有所进展，但它是从一个极低的基础上起步的。
The third upshot is the most controversial. Now that the demonetised bank notes are worthless, the government is intent on in effect appropriating the proceeds. The procedure requires trampling on the credibility of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the central bank, which must first agree to dishonour the promise, on all banknotes, to “pay the bearer” the value. If it does so,
“extinguishing” the notes and its liability for them, it can transfer
an equivalent amount to the government budget.
第三点结果最富争议。既然被废止流通的纸币已一文不值，政府实
际上是 意图侵占这些收入。这么做需要践踏印度央行的信誉，该行须首先同意不履行“向持有人支付”所有纸币面值的承诺。如果它
这么做，即“销毁”了这些纸币及它对此应承担的义务，那么它就
能将相应的金额转移到政府预算中。
With so much cash handed in at banks, the amount remitted to
government by the RBI might amount to perhaps 0.2-0.3% of GDP. Proceeds from a tax-amnesty scheme for cash-hoarders may swell
the figure. Even so, it will not be enough to justify the costs of
demonetisation --or even, perhaps, the damage to the reputation
of the RBI, which is already facing questions about its
independence. But having imposed the costs, Mr Modi will be keen
to trumpet whatever benefits he can find.
如此之多的现金交入银行，由印度央行缴汇到政府的金额可能为GDP的 0.2%至0.3%。而对现金囤积者的税收赦免计划带来的收益可能会让这一数字增加。即便如此，也不足以证明废钞令利大于弊，甚至可能不足以抵得过对印度央行声誉的损害——它已经面临对其
独立性的质疑。但是既然已付出代价，莫迪必定会对任何他能找到
的好处大吹大擂。
原文来自：20170107 pdf版 50页
经济学人科技类文章中英双语
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15年每周经济学人报刊中英文对照讲课讲稿
15年每周经济学人报刊中英文对照
空气污染英国需要采取更多措施来净化污浊的空气 Air pollution空气污染The big smoke雾都 Britain needs to do more to clean up its dirty air 英国需要采取更多措施来净化污浊的空气VISITING Oxford Street, a road teeming with tatty shops and overcrowded with people, is plainly a trial. Less plainly, levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a noxious gas, have been found to be around three times higher there than the legal limit. In 2013 the annual mean concentration of NO2 on the street was one of the highest levels found anywhere in Europe. 来到牛津街，你会看到街道两边布满了各式杂乱的商店，而道路上人满为患。行走在这条街上，很明显是个磨练。不为人觉察的是，这里有毒气体二氧化氮(NO2)测出含量超出法定水平的约三倍以上。２０１３年，这条街的NO2年均浓度是欧洲最高之一。 British air is far cleaner than it was a few decades ago. Fewer people use coal-burning stoves; old industrial plants have been decommissioned. But since 2009 levels of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, coarse or fine particles that are linked to lung cancer and asthma, have fallen more slowly. The exact number of deaths caused by dirty air is unknown. But in 2010 a government advisory group estimated that removing man-made fine particulate matter from the atmosphere would increase life expectancy for those born in 2008 by an average of six months. 英国的空气比几十年前干净多了。使用燃煤炉灶的人越来越少；老工业厂已经停产。但自2009年起，氧 化氮、微粒物质、以及与肺癌和哮喘相关的粗、细颗粒含量的下降速度减慢了。因污浊空气所引发的死亡人数是未知的。但2010年，一个政府顾问组估算如果将大气中人为造成的微粒物质除去的话，2008年的出生人口人均寿命将增加六个月。 Much of the slowdown is the result of fumes from diesel cars, which were championed by successive governments because they use less fuel and thus produce less carbon dioxide than petrol cars. In 2001 only 14% of all cars ran on diesel; by 2013 the proportion had increased to 35%. (Greener “hybrid” and electric cars have increased ninefold since 2006, but account for just 0.5% of the entire fleet.) Second-hand cars are particularly noxious, but even newer ones have not been as clean as hoped. Many cars that belched out few pollutants in tests produced more when on the roads. 下降速度放缓的大部分原因在于柴油汽车排放的尾气—这为历任政府所支持，因为柴油汽车耗用更少的能源，比汽油汽车排放更少的二氧化碳。2001年，仅14%的汽车使用柴油。2013年，这个比例上涨到了35%。（更绿色的“混合动力”和电瓶车自2006年以来增加了九倍，但仅占汽车总量的0.5%。）二手汽 车尤其有害，但新车也没所期望的那样清洁。很多车在污染物排放测试中排放量低，车在上路时却排放了更多。 Climate change and geoengineering气候变化与地质工程学Fears of a bright planet 地球发光，令人担心Experiments designed to learn more about ways of geoengineering the climate should be allowed to proceed为更好地利用工程学手段研究气候问题所设计的实验应该获准进行下去。SHINY things absorb less heat when left in the sun. This means that if the Earth could be made a little shinier it would be less susceptible to global warming. Ways to brighten it, such as adding nanoscale specks of salt to low clouds, making them whiter, or putting a thin haze of particles into the stratosphere, are the province of “geoengineering”. The small band of scientists which have been studying this subject over the past decade or so have mostly been using computer models. Some of them are now proposing outdoor experiments—using seawater-fed sprayers to churn out particles of the exact size needed to brighten clouds, or spewing sulphur particles from underneath a large balloon 20km up in the sky.发光的物体放在太阳下面会吸收较少的热量。这就意味着如果让地球发一点光的话，受到全球变暖的影响就会小一些。让地球发光的方式，比方说在低空云层上添加纳米级的盐微粒，让云变得更白，或者是将一层薄的雾状物洒向平流层，这些都属于地质工程学的范畴。过去十年左右研究这一领域的一小批科学家主要使用计算机模型，其中一些人现在提出要做室外实验――就是用装有
经济学人双语阅读：政治遗传学 人体政治
【经济学人】双语阅读：政治遗传学人体政治 Science and technology 科学技术 The genetics of politics 政治遗传学 Body politic 人体政治 Slowly, and in some quarters grudgingly, the influence of genes in shaping political outlook and behaviour is being recognized 在某些方面，塑造政治前景和行为的基因影响正在慢慢地被人们所接受，虽然还是不情愿。 IN 1882 W.S. Gilbert wrote, to a tune by Sir Arthur Sullivan, a ditty that went I often think it's comical how Nature always does contrive/that every boy and every gal that's born into the world alive/is either a little Liberal or else a little Conservative. 在1882年，W.S吉尔伯特写的一首小诗-是为阿瑟-沙利文爵士的一首曲子而作，我一直认为，大自然的精工雕作是那么可笑/每个出生到这个世界上，并存活下来的男孩和女孩们/不是有一点自由倾向，就是有一点保守。 In the 19th century, that view, though humorously intended, would not have been out of place among respectable thinkers. 在十九世纪，这个观点虽然有一点幽默的意味，但是在那些备受尊敬的思想家眼中，也并不是一无是处。 The detail of a man's opinion might be changed by circumstances. 一个人意见的详细观点可能会由于环境而改变。 But the idea that much of his character was ingrained at birth held no terrors. 但是，这种与生俱来的，由他的性格决定的观念也没什么恐怖的。 It is not, however, a view that cut much ice in 20th-century social-scientific thinking, particularly after the second world war. 然而，它在二十世纪的社会科学思想中没有占到一席之地，特别是二战之后。 Those who allowed that it might have some value were generally shouted down and sometimes abused, along with all others vehemently suspected of the heresy of believing that genetic differences between individuals could have a role in shaping their behavioural differences. 那些认为它有一些价值的人们发出的呐喊，通常会被持不同观点人们的声音所掩盖，有时还会遭到辱骂，和那些对当时的异端邪说----即个体之间的遗传差异在塑造他们各自不同的行为上起了一定的作用----有些猜测的人们一样受到不公平对待。
经济学人双语版 煤炭 未来的能源
Coal 煤炭 The fuel of the future, unfortunately 很不幸，这便是未来的能源 A cheap, ubiquitous and flexible fuel, with just one problem 这是一种廉价、易得且用途广泛的燃料，但仅存在着一个问题 WHAT more could one want? It is cheap and simple to extract, ship and burn. It is abundant: proven reserves amount to 109 years of current consumption, reckons BP, a British energy giant. They are mostly in politically stable places. There is a wide choice of dependable sellers, such as BHP Billiton (Anglo-Australian), Glencore (Anglo-Swiss), Peabody Energy and Arch Coal. 还能奢望更多的好条件吗？这是一种廉价，且便于获娶装运和燃烧的能源。它的储量十分丰富：英国能源巨头BP证实，现有的煤炭储量可供人们维持目前的消耗量长达109年。煤炭资源还大多分布于政治稳定的地区。可靠的煤炭供应商数量众多，如必和必拓、嘉能可，以及皮博迪和阿齐。 Other fuels are beset by state interference and cartels, but in this industry consumers—in heating, power generation and metallurgy—are firmly in charge, keeping prices low. Just as this wonder-fuel once powered the industrial revolution, it now offers the best chance for poor countries wanting to get rich. 其他能源均被国家或者卡特尔寡头所控制，但在煤炭产业当中，其供暖、电力和冶金业的消费者处于绝对主导地位，令价格持续低廉。正如当年这一完美的能源推动着工业革命的发展，现在它也为贫穷国家们提供着发家致富的绝佳机会。 Such arguments are the basis of a new PR campaign launched by Peabody, the world's largest private coal company. And coal would indeed be a boon, were it not for one small problem: it is devastatingly dirty. Mining, transport, storage and burning are fraught with mess, as well as danger. Deep mines put workers in intolerably filthy and dangerous conditions. But opencast mining, now the source of much of the world's coal, rips away topsoil and gobbles water. Transporting coal brings a host of environmental problems. 如此的论断正是皮博迪公司发起的新一轮公关活动的核心内容，而目前该公司是全世界最大的私人煤炭企业。煤炭本该成为上帝的惠泽，而若不是因为这一个小
《经济学人》英中对照翻译版(考研英语必备)
来源于https://www.360docs.net/doc/f811899023.html,/wordpress/（The Economist《经济学人》中文版）和https://www.360docs.net/doc/f811899023.html,/（《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版） 11月10, 2008 [2008.11.08] 美国大选：无限期望 America's election：Great expectations NO ONE should doubt the magnitude of what Barack Obama achieved this week. When the president-elect was born, in 1961, many states, and not just in the South, had laws on their books that enforced segregation, banned mixed-race unions like that of his parents and restricted voting rights. This week America can claim more credibly that any other western country to have at last become politically colour-blind. Other milestones along the road to civil rights have been passed amid bitterness and bloodshed. This one was marked by joy, white as well as black (see article). 相信无人质疑奥巴马于本周取胜的重要意义。这位新总统出生于1961年，那时美国很多州的法律都要求强化种族分离、禁止像奥巴马父母那样的跨族通婚、限制选举权利；这些不仅限于南部地区，而出现在全国范围内。从本周开始，美国可以更加自信的宣称：任何其他的西方国家都变得有些政治色盲了。在通向民权的道路上，其它里程碑似的重大历史事件都是在痛苦与血泊中通过的；而此次总统选举则以愉快著称，受到了包括白人及黑人在内的全国选民的称赞。 Mr Obama lost the white vote, it is true, by 43-55%; but he won almost exactly same share of it as the last three (white) Democratic candidates; Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry. And he won heavily among younger white voters. America will now have a president with half-brothers in Kenya, old schoolmates in Indonesia and a view of the world that seems to be based on respect rather than confrontation. 奥巴马丢掉了大约43%-55%的白人选票，这是不争的事实；但他与过去三位白人民主党候选人–克林顿、戈尔和肯尼迪–得到的白人选票几乎相同。同时，他在年轻一代的白人选民中取得了重大胜利。这位新总统有一个同父异母的兄弟在肯尼亚，有老同学在印尼，他的世界观似乎建立在尊重而不是对抗的基础之上。 That matters. Under George Bush America’s international standing has sunk to awful lows. This week Americans voted in record-smashing numbers for many reasons, but one of them was an abhorrence of how their shining city’s reputation has been tarnished. Their country will now be easier for its friends to like and harder for its foes to hate. 这很重要。在布什治下，美国的国际声誉降到了糟糕地步。本周美国选民的投票数量突破了历史纪录，其中原因很多，有一个就是他们对曾经辉煌无比的城市形象已然黯淡无光而感到愤恨。现在他们的国家将会更易赢得朋友的喜爱，而不易引起敌人的仇恨。 In its own way the election illustrates this redeeming effect. For the past eight years the debacle in Florida in 2000 has been cited (not always fairly) as an example of shabby American politics. Yet here was a clear victory delivered by millions of volunteers-and by the intelligent use of technology to ride a wave of excitement that is all too rare in most democracies. Mr Obama showed that, with the right message, a candidate with no money or machine behind him can build his own.