案例4--Warren E. Buffet
英文市场营销案例Warren-Buffett

Warren BuffettWarren Buffett (born August 30,1930) is a US investor, businessman, and philanthropist. He is one of the most successful investors in history, the largest shareholder and C.E.O. of Berkshire Hathaway, and in 2008 was ranked by Forbes as the richest person in the world with an estimated net worth of approximately $62 billion.Buffett is often called the “Oracle of Omaha” or the “Sage of Omaha”and is noted for his adherence to the value investing philosophy and for his personal frugality despite his immense wealth. Despite his overall frugality, he flies in a corporate jet named the Indefensible.Buffett is also a notable philanthropist, having pledged to give away 85 percent of his fortune to the Gates Foundation. He also serves as a member of the board of trustees at Grinnell College.In 1999, Buffett was named the top money manager of the twentieth century in a survey by the Carson Group, ahead of Peter Lynch and John Templeton. In 2007, he was listed among Time’s 100 Most Influential People in the world.He worked at his grandfather’s grocery store. In 1943, Buffett filed his first income tax return, deducting his bicycle and watch as a work expense for $35 for his work as newspaper delivery boy. After his father was elected to Congress, Buffett was educated at Woodrow Wilson High School, Washington, D.C. In 1945, in his freshman year of high school, Buffett and afriend spent $25 to purchase a used pinball machine, which they placed in a barber shop. Within months, they owned three machines in different locations.Buffett first enrolled at The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania,(1947-49) where he joined the Alpha Sigma Phi Fraternity. In 1950, he transferred to the University of Nebraska where he received a B.S. in Economics. Buffett then enrolled at Columbia Business School after learning that Benjamin Graham,(the author of The Intelligent Investor),and David Dodd, two well-known securities analysts, taught there. He then received a M.S. in Economics from Columbia University in 1951.In Buffett’s own words: I’m 15 percent Fisher and 85 percent Benjamin Graham.The basic ideas of investing are to look at stocks as business, use the market’s fluctuations to your advantage, and seek a margin of safety. That’s what Ben Graham taught us. A hundred years from now they will still be the cornerstones of investing.At only six years old, Buffett purchased 6-packs of Coca Cola from his grandfather’s grocery store for twenty five cents and resold each of the bottles for a nickel, pocketing a five cent profit. While other children his age were playing hopscotch and jacks, Warren was making money. Five years later, Buffett took his step into the world of high finance. At eleven years old, he purchased three shares of Cities Service Preferred at $38 per share forboth himself and his older sister, Doris. Shortly after buying the stock, it fell to just over $27 per share. A frightened but resilient Warren held his shares until they rebounded to $40. He promptly sold them a mistake he would soon come to regret. Cities Service shot up to $200. The experience taught him one of the basic lessons of investing: patience is a virtue.By the late’70s, his reputation had grown to the point that the rumor Warren Buffett was buying a stock was enough to shoot its price up 10%. The irony was that Warren Buffett never sold a single share of his company, meaning his entire available cash was the $50000 salary he received. During this time, he made a comment to a broker, “Everything I got is tied up in Berkshire. I’d like a few nickels outside.”。
可口可乐饮品营销策划案经典营销策划方案案例

可口可乐饮品营销策划案经典营销策划方案案例文稿归稿存档编号:[KKUY-KKIO69-OTM243-OLUI129-G00I-FDQS58-2016年04月可口可乐营销策划案目录第一章摘要 (3)第二章公司介绍 (3)宗旨 (3)公司简介 (4)产品及服务 (4)价值评估 (5)公司管理 (5)组织,协作及对外关系 (6)知识产权策略 (6)风险 (7)第三章市场分析 (7)市场介绍 (7)产品及目标市场 (7)顾客购买准则 (9)销售策略 (9)市场份额或渗透率 (9)第四章竞争性分析 (10)一、可口可乐与百事可乐的对比分析 (10)二、竞争策略与行业壁垒 (15)第五章产品与服务 (16)一、产品品种规划 (16)二、包装 (16)三、服务 (16)第六章市场与销售 (17)一、市场计划 (17)二、销售策略 (17)三、销售渠道与伙伴 (18)四、销售周期 (20)五、定价策略 (20)六、市场联络 (21)第一章摘要可口可乐公司作为一家世界闻名的饮料公司,在生产销售方面有其独特的精髓,而它与百事可乐的竞争也是人们关注的焦点。
所以我们在这份策划中,将对可口可乐的优势和不足进行客观的分析,然后加上我们独巨匠心的观点,希望能为其他公司提供有效的参考。
第二章:公司介绍一、宗旨(任务)可口可乐公司宗旨:让可口可乐成为全球最大饮料制造商,追求最大利润,积极回馈社会,形成双赢的局面,建立可乐帝国。
使命陈述:因应社会的快速转变,追求速度与新鲜感,电视广告不断推陈出新,跟着时下年轻人的脚步走,让人有挡不住的感觉,觉得喝可口可乐就是跟着潮流走。
让收集可口可乐相关的产品是一种流行的象征。
二、公司简介可口可乐公司 (Coca-Cola Company)成立于1892年,公司总部设在美国亚特兰大。
1960年进入美国最大的100家工业公司的行列;1983年居第48位。
1960-1983年,该公司的销售额、资产额和净收入的年均增长率分别为12.2%、11.5%和12.3%。
warren buffett

• Buffett's fortune dream began from the age of 5, but he did not take money as the ultimate goal. He likes looking at money increase in the number, but by no means eager for money.
• In June 2006, he announced a plan to give away his fortune to charity, with 83% of it going to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundaemporaries-richest man in history such as oil Baron Rockefeller, steel Baron Andrew Carnegie, and software King Bill Gates later, Warren Buffett is outstanding. As other people's wealth all came from a product or an invention, but Buffett is a purely investor.
• Even as a child, Buffett displayed an interest in making and saving money.
He went door to door selling chewing gum, Coca-Cola, or
weekly magazines. For a while, he worked in his grandfather's grocery store. While still in high school he was successful in making money by delivering newspapers, selling golfballs and stamps, and detailing cars, among other means.
srdc交易办法初级教程

现在来做: 1)回头测试尽可能多的 k 线,最少 20 个 2)对于每次交易,研究其点数(minus spread) 3)多少 k 线能差出最少 5 个点数? 4)多少 k 线能差出多于 10 个点数? 5)多少 k 线之间能差出少于 5 个点数? 现在你有了答案。兴奋么?应该的! 怎么用这个方法来交易呢? 准备工作 在新的日 k 线开始的时候: 1)画支撑位 2)画阻力位 拜托请在前一天的 k 线上画。。。。。 画出趋势线并且判断趋势。这样,你就可以预期价格会向哪里运行。或者向着支撑位,或者 阻力位。
设置趋势,画 channel (筛选)
15mins chart 这部分可能对场景二比场景三更重要. 这是一个用 SRDC 方法来应用移动平均线的介绍。对 我们来说,移动平均线(MA)是最简单得阻力和支撑位。恰当的 MA 区间可以成为一个好 地趋势设置指示。这里有很多我们可以用得,为了简单,我们用 84SMA. 实际上我们用 84SMA 来画轨道. 轨道的开始和末端由蜡烛相对 84SMA 得开始位置 (00:00GMT)决定。 当初始位置> 84SMA 趋势向上 当初始位置< 84SMA 趋势向下 用这个 trendsetter 可以决定是否开始交易,你可能会错过很多好的单子,但是很快你就会掌 握,你会最终学会避免很多坏单现在的趋势画成轨道,除非一个趋势延续连续超过三天,否则化轨道的时候 一定要包含前一个趋势(trend,不知道这个词翻得对不对)
可以同时作两个方向的交易么? 当然。但是箱体最好在轨道的中部,方向偏离得越大,获利可能性就越大。 消息呢?从我的经验来看,当我在交易的时候,在通告出来 1 分钟前,我通常设置 stop loss 成 breakeven。但如果你没有在交易,记住这句话, “轨道比消息强”. 止损(SL) 价值一百万美金的问题,最好的止损点在那里? 三个方法设置你得止损点 箱体大小:箱体能覆盖到所有 whipsaw,当箱体变太大的时候,它可能会吓到我邻居的狮 子。 这个是 GBPUSD 对吧? 所以,50 点 是最安全的。 15 分钟图上的 84SMA 或者 一小时的 21SMA 就是这样。 还有很多方法来交易。但是,我认为现在的解释足够了。我希望这个能加强你对其他 SRDC 的交易。 对 SRDC 质疑或者不满的, 我建议你把意见留到别处,回家和老婆说去。不要在这个帖子 里讲,因为我们对你愚蠢的思想不感兴趣。 我提前说这些因为我 100%讨厌怀疑者。我在这里免费教大家以及分享我的经验,我不是在 受审,你才是! 所以,丢掉你的自傲,趁我还在免费降解的时候开始学习。 责任?交易是你自己的,所以你要对你自己负责,而不是我。 其余的,我等着你们用 SRDC 成功和开心的交易! 我爱你们!
Buffet案例

1.Would the PacifiCorp acquisition serve the long-term goals of Berkshire Hathaway? PacifiCorpis a major player in the quickly expanding western region, particularly Utah, one of the fastest-growing states. Utah's rising population is boosting power demand by 4% a year. That's a huge growth opportunity for MidAmerican. Plus, PacifiCorp is one of the industry's low-cost energy providers. The acquisition will bring the revenue of $10billion a year and the power generation capacity of 16,000 watts to MidAmerican, which can supply 1,280 households. Therefore, the PacifiCorp acquisition serves the long-term goals of Berkshire Hathaway.2.Was the bid price appropriate?Based on the multiples for comparable regulated utilities, we can see that the range of possible enterprise values for PacifiCorp is from $6.252 billion to $9.289 billion and the range of possible market value of equity is from $4.277 billion to $5.904 billion. In this case, Berkshire used $9.4 billion to acquire the electric utility PacifiCorp. This price is out of the range neither of possible enterprise value nor of possible market value.A very obvious question is raised here-why Berkshire was willing to purchase PacifiCorp at such high price? Buffet defined intrinsic value as the discounted value of the cash that can be takenout of a business during its remaining life. But the intrinsic value is difficult to calculate. The valuation method of comparable companies in this case measures the cost rather than the future earning because of the use of historical data. In addition, in Buffet’s point of view, Berkshire might have a good development and future after its takeover of PacifiCorp. The intrinsic value of PacifiCorpcould be more valuable than its cost. So the bid price was appropriate.3.How did Berkshire’s offer measure up against the company’s valuation implied by themultiples for comparable firms?Since PacifiCorp is a privately held company that does not pay a dividend, the dividend discount model cannot be used.An implied valuation using multiples from comparable regulated utilities is applied then.In the case, Exhibit 9 reveals some financial data for the PacifiCorp and Exhibit 10 demonstrates the implied valuation for PacifiCorp using average and median of the company. 1)Enterprise Value Multiple = Enterprise Value / Rev or EBIT or EBITDA or Net Income ofComparable CompaniesImplied value of PacifiCorp = The medium or mean of Enterprise Value Multiples* Rev or EBIT or EBITDA or Net Income of PacifiCorp2)MV Equity Multiple = MV Equity/EPS or Book Value of Comparable CompaniesImplied value of PacifiCorp = The medium or mean of MV Equity Multiples* EPS or Book Value of PacifiCorp4.What might account for the share price increase for Berkshire Hathaway at the announcement? The stock market reaction to the PacifiCorp acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway appears to portray the deal as a win-win situation, creating value for both companies.Under acquisition accounting, the $2.55 billion increase in market value of Berkshire Hathaway is the increase in goodwill of the company.The reasons are listed below.●Buffet expected that PacifiCorp would have good future earnings and could enhance theperformance of Berkshireas well. The acquisition boosted the confidence of investors.Moreover, the market was optimistic about the purchase.●The stock performance of Berkshire underperformed S&P 500 Index while the ScottishPower outperformed the index.。
新视野大学英语听说教程4答案(含Culture_talk_和Homework)

新视野大学英语4听说教程答案Unit OneWarming UpF T NGListeningUnderstanding Short Conversations1~5 A C B B D6~10 B A C C DUnderstanding a Long Conversation1~5 A B A C BUnderstanding a Passage1~5 A A D B CUndenstanding a Radio Program1 married in ST.Paul’s Cathedral2 was a guest at the wedding ceremory3 wore a hat with flowers at the wedding4 is remmembered as having been naughty5 was one of the designers of the wedding dressCulture TalkT F F TListening and Speaking1 They have high status.2 They get the attentions of the public.3 Using their fame to make money.HomeworkSupplementary ListeningTask 11~5 D A B B ATask 21~5 C A B B ATask 31、shortage2、assigned3、centered4、hospitallization5、treatment6、colleague7、decentialized8、There’re nurse-managers instead of head-nurses9、decidea among themselves who will work what to do and when10、an equal with other wise presidents of the hospitalUnit TwoWarming Up1、Her new book2、Original3、Use your own words to complete it,this question has no correct answers. ListeningUnderstanding Short Conversations1~5 D D D C B6~10 A A B C DUnderstanding a Long Conversation1~5 D A B B AUnderstanding a Passage1~5 B C D A CUndenstanding a Radio Program1 C2 A3 A4 C5 DCulture TalkF F T TListening and Speaking1(The Left Answer) It makes their point and makes you happy.2(The Right Answer) It is difficult to do.3(The Right Answer) Sometimes it’s dangerous.HomeworkSupplementary ListeningTask 11~5 D A B B ATask 21~5 B D A C ATask 31、sketch2、shadow3、paintings4、abroad5、Europe6、jewels7、exqute8、pictures of rooms with handsome dressed people in them9、not only the clothes and the lines of their faces10、but he was far greater than he would ever becomeUnit ThreeWarming Up1、god of mercy2、money,strength and health3、lucky onesListeningUnderstanding Short Conversations1~5 C D C B B6~10 B A C A BUnderstanding a Long Conversation1~5 A B D C BUnderstanding a Passage1~5 A B D B CUndenstanding a Radio Program1 An Australian scientist who won the Nobel Prize.2 The mysterious field of infectious diseases.3 By accident.4 It was probably extremely significant.5 He couldn't handle all that.Culture TalkT F T TListening and Speaking1 The poor trend to be angry easily and it will fanilly make a civil war.2 It can control the rate og crimes3 It can increase the econimicsHomeworkSupplementary ListeningTask 11~5 B C A D CTask 21~5 B A C B CTask 31、September2、retire3、retirement4、reduction5、practical6、pensions7、leisure8、The club arranges discussion groups and handicraft sessions9、a member can attend any course held there free of charge10、the financial section on Mondays and Wednesdays between six and eight p.m.Unit FourWarming Up1、Xerox’s Palo Alto Re search Center2、Verizon3、AmazonListeningUnderstanding Short Conversations1~5 B A D D A6~10 D C C A AUnderstanding a Long Conversation1~5 C B B B CUnderstanding a Passage1~5 A C B A CUndenstanding a Radio Program1 became Bill Gates' greatest contribution2 makes use of Gates' system3 was the plaything of nerds4 became a business tool5 made it a wish to dominate like Bill Gates6 was not fit to comment on upcoming innovationCulture TalkT T F FListening and Speaking1(The Left Answer) It provides a lot of information.2(The Right Answer) Some of the information is very dangerous.3(The Right Answer) Some of the information is not accurate.HomeworkSupplementary ListeningTask 11~5 B A B C ATask 21~5 A A B B ATask 31、fundamental2、dramatically3、majority4、workplace5、self-employed6、breadth7、notions8、its applications in personal computers, digital communications, and factory robots9、still unimagined technology could produce a similar wave of dramatic changes10、will have the greatest advantage and produce the most wealthUnit FiveWarming UpF NG TListeningUnderstanding Short Conversations1~5 A D D D B6~10 C D C A DUnderstanding a Long Conversation1~5 B B A C CUnderstanding a Passage1~5 D A B B AUndenstanding a Radio Program1 the perfect man checklists2 what the perfect man looks like3 much younger for yourself4 to develop your perfect man checklist5 burning the perfect man checklistCulture Talk1 Korean2 HongKong3 England4 USAListening and Speaking1 It can cause one to be dependent.2 It’s a nuisance.3 It will limit your freedom.HomeworkSupplementary ListeningTask 11~5 C D A B DTask 21~5 A C A C DTask 31、emerging2、residents3、participants4、companionship5、soldiers6、isolate7、extraordinary8、who happened to live by themselves die at twice the rate of those live with others9、It’s clear that reaching out to other can have our body strong10、Only 5 percent of U.S. consisted of the person living alone.Unit SixWarming Up1 Whether the man should return to society.2 15 years.3 Use your own words to complete it,this question has no correct answers. ListeningUnderstanding Short Conversations1~5 C B C D B6~10 C A D D BUnderstanding a Long Conversation1~5 A B C C DUnderstanding a Passage1~5 C D D A BUndenstanding a Radio Program1 Centennial Olympic Park2 North Cardwell,New Jersey3 Oklahoma City,Oklahoma4 the FBI laboratories5 ground zero6 an Atlanta abortion clinicCulture Talk1 USA2 Germany3 Singapore4 CanadaListening and Speaking1(The Left Answer) Punishing the criminals will deter others.2(The Right Answer) It is good for society.3(The Right Answer) It has no victims.HomeworkSupplementary ListeningTask 11~5 D C B A ATask 21~5 C B B A DTask 31、impeach2、scandal3、gambling4、Representatives5、accusations6、procedures7、opposition8、resigned as secretary of social welfare and urged the president to resign9、five economic advices to the President have resigned10、some committees in the House of RepresentativesUnit SevenWarming UpT F NGListeningUnderstanding Short Conversations1~5 B C A A D6~10 C B D A BUnderstanding a Long ConversationUnderstanding a Passage1~5 C C D B BUndenstanding a Radio Program1 shows God’s part in creating the universe.2 shows the existence of a man thousands of years ago.3 shows messages inscribed in DNA.4 shows a court opinion against Intelligent Design.5 shows God’s existence.Culture TalkT T F FListening and Speaking1 Groups are similar biologically except for skin color.2 Groups have different culture3 Groups provide something unique.HomeworkSupplementary ListeningTask 11~5 D D A B BTask 21~5 A C B A DTask 31、would-be2、intelligence3、genes4、athletic5、medical6、disclosed7、consideration8、the sum American egg donors expect to be paid9、plus all the costs of medical treatment and insurance10、almost half the cost of fees for the students’ four-year college course.Unit EightWarming Up1 going to quit2 work harder3 majority raceListeningUnderstanding Short Conversations1~5 C A A B C6~10 D D A C BUnderstanding a Long ConversationUnderstanding a Passage1~5 D A B B AUndenstanding a Radio Program1 Bill Gates2 Warren Buffet3 KP Singh4 Martha Stewart5 Ronald Lauder6 Louisa KrollCulture Talk1 Japan2 UK3 America4 Hong Kong Listening and Speaking1 Society should be fair.2 Women should enjoy representation.3 It makes leaders help to do something for women.HomeworkSupplementary ListeningTask 11~5 A C D B CTask 21~5 A D B B BTask 31、greeted2、freshman3、spite4、fluke5、agitated6、faculty7、particularly8、I had the highest average in the freshman class9、Then, she took out a copy of the examination paper10、I was so angry that I started punding herUnit NineWarming Up1 Whether it’s Chinese enough to appeal to Chinese people2 American culture3 Use your own words to complete it,this question has no correct answersListeningUnderstanding Short Conversations1~5 A C B D C6~10 D A A B CUnderstanding a Long Conversation1~5 D A B B AUnderstanding a Passage1~5 D B B C CUndenstanding a Radio Program1 His brother’s two daughters.2 They drove there.3 Children under three.4 They watched the parade.5 He sat down and had a rest for a few minutes.Culture TalkT T F TListening and Speaking1 Fantastic rides.2 So much to see.3 Great memories never to forget.HomeworkSupplementary ListeningTask 11~5 C B A C DTask 21~5 B A D C BTask 31、Authorities2、grant3、opera4、not traditional5、staged6、journolists7、tunnel8、Great performer is special for new introduction of the story9、who kills all suitors who can answer her three riddles10、Some Chinese audience complain that the princess has none of the grace of a true Chinese ladyUnit TenWarming UpNG T FListeningUnderstanding Short Conversations1~5 D B A C B6~10 B B C B AUnderstanding a Long Conversation1~5 D B C A BUnderstanding a Passage1~5 C B D D AUndenstanding a Radio Program1 is something not known for sure2 is trying to figure out how dreams help in solving problems3 is something everyone should do4 is important in interpreting dreams5 is something a person might be afraid ofCulture TalkT T F TListening and Speaking1 It causes stress.2 What area you may develop.3 High score can bring you confidence.HomeworkSupplementary ListeningTask 11~5 C D C A ATask 21~5 A D C B ATask 31、rarely2、consulting3、renting4、agent5、appointment6、exchange7、praises8、the people who work there actually know where things are and they'll take you right to them9、I will tell you what I really like about Publix10、There's a different grocery store near my house, but all that the employees do there is to grunt。
案例4--Warren E. Buffet

沃伦E.巴菲特1995阅读“沃伦E. 巴菲特”案例,回答下列问题,请注意你可以提出你自己感兴趣的问题,以代替下列问题。
1、在宣布收购的当天,GEICO公司和Berkshire Hathaway公司股票价格变动可能意味着什么?特别是,在Berkshire的市场资产净值中7.18亿美元的利润对GEICO的内在价值意味着什么?(注:在知道消息之前,Berkshire拥有GEICO的33.25百万的股票)2、根据Value Line公司的预测信息,GEICO的可能的内在价值在什么范围内?你对此估计范围有什么疑问?3、Berkshire Hathaway表现的怎么样?在总体上?在对Scott & Fetaer的投资上表现的怎么样?在早期购买GEICO的股票投资上?在可自由兑换的有价证券投资上?4、在沃伦E.巴菲特的观点中,内在价值是什么?为什么受到如此高的重视?它是如何估算的?内在价值的替代方案是什么?并且为什么巴菲特拒绝了它们?5、请客观地评价一下巴菲特的投资理念,并且指明你同意他的哪些观点,不同哪些观点?6、Berkshire的股东应该认可对GEICO的收购活动吗?1995年8月25日,Berkshire Hathaway 公司的CEO沃伦 E.巴菲特宣布他的公司将收购GEICO公司在外边的49.6%的股票份额。
这个23亿美元的交易将支付GEICO的股东们每股70美元,远远高于宣布前的每股市场价格55.75美元。
观测者对Berkshire Hathaway 公司将支付的26%的股票溢价感到吃惊,尤其是巴菲特不打算对GEICO做出任何的改变,而且这两家公司的合并没有明显的协同效应。
在宣布的当天,Berkshire Hathaway 公司股票的收盘价上涨了2.4%,对公司的整个市场价值而言则增加了7.18亿美元1。
在那一天,标准普尔500股价指数的收盘价上涨了0.5%。
对GEICO公司的收购活动使得人们重新认识了投资大师沃伦 E.巴菲特。
Warren Buffet

D. Don't go on brand name; just wear those things in which you feel comfortable. E. Don't waste your money on unnecessary things; just spend on them who really in need rather. F. After all it's your life then why give chance to others to rule our life."
Don't buy more than what you "really need" and encourage your children to do and think the same
JBA
4.He drives his own car everywhere and does not have a driver or security people around him.
There was a one hour interview on CNBC with Warren Buffet, the second richest man who has donated $31 billion to charity. Following are some very interesting aspects of his life
JBA
1.He bought his first share at age 11 and he now regrets that he started too late!
Things were very cheap that time Encourage your children to invest
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沃伦E.巴菲特1995阅读“沃伦E. 巴菲特”案例,回答下列问题,请注意你可以提出你自己感兴趣的问题,以代替下列问题。
1、在宣布收购的当天,GEICO公司和Berkshire Hathaway公司股票价格变动可能意味着什么?特别是,在Berkshire的市场资产净值中7.18亿美元的利润对GEICO的内在价值意味着什么?(注:在知道消息之前,Berkshire拥有GEICO的33.25百万的股票)2、根据Value Line公司的预测信息,GEICO的可能的内在价值在什么范围内?你对此估计范围有什么疑问?3、Berkshire Hathaway表现的怎么样?在总体上?在对Scott & Fetaer的投资上表现的怎么样?在早期购买GEICO的股票投资上?在可自由兑换的有价证券投资上?4、在沃伦E.巴菲特的观点中,内在价值是什么?为什么受到如此高的重视?它是如何估算的?内在价值的替代方案是什么?并且为什么巴菲特拒绝了它们?5、请客观地评价一下巴菲特的投资理念,并且指明你同意他的哪些观点,不同哪些观点?6、Berkshire的股东应该认可对GEICO的收购活动吗?1995年8月25日,Berkshire Hathaway 公司的CEO沃伦 E.巴菲特宣布他的公司将收购GEICO公司在外边的49.6%的股票份额。
这个23亿美元的交易将支付GEICO的股东们每股70美元,远远高于宣布前的每股市场价格55.75美元。
观测者对Berkshire Hathaway 公司将支付的26%的股票溢价感到吃惊,尤其是巴菲特不打算对GEICO做出任何的改变,而且这两家公司的合并没有明显的协同效应。
在宣布的当天,Berkshire Hathaway 公司股票的收盘价上涨了2.4%,对公司的整个市场价值而言则增加了7.18亿美元1。
在那一天,标准普尔500股价指数的收盘价上涨了0.5%。
对GEICO公司的收购活动使得人们重新认识了投资大师沃伦 E.巴菲特。
在许多方面,巴菲特是个奇迹。
巴菲特作为世界上最富有的个人投资者之一(其个人资产大约有70亿美元),同时他也受别人的尊敬甚至被人们所喜欢。
尽管他累计创造了也许是历史上最好的投资记录(从1965年到1994年其投资财富年增长复利率为28%2),Berkshire Hathaway 公司每年支付给他的作为公司CEO的薪酬仅仅为10万美元。
尽管巴菲特和公司内部其他的管理人员控制了公司47.9%的股份,然而他是以全体股东的利益在运作该公司的。
许多文章和三篇传记都以他为赞美对象3,然而他仍然是一个热情洋溢的人。
尽管被许多人称之为天才,但是他避开智力团体,而更喜欢以影响内布拉斯加人(他居住在奥马哈)和顽固投资商的行为。
相对于其他的投资“明星”,巴菲特能很快公开地承认他的投资失误。
尽管他持有哥伦比亚大学的MBA学位,并且相信他的导师Benjamin Graham教授,Benjamin Graham教授发展了以价值为基础的投资理念,该理念指导巴菲特取得成功,然而他仍然斥责商学院,由于商学院里面所开设投资和融资理论与现实的不相关性。
许多分析者试图提取巴菲特的成功秘诀。
指导巴菲特成功的关键法则到底是什么呢?这些法则能被广泛运用于20世纪90年代后期和21世纪还是它们仅仅属于巴菲特和他的时代?通过理解这些法则,分析者希望阐明Berkshire Hathaway 公司收购GEICO的谜团。
在什么假定条件下,该收购对Berkshire Hathaway 公司有利呢?在这次收购活动中巴菲特可能的动机是什么?对GEICO收购活动会被证明是成功的吗?该次投资活动和该公司其他最近的投资如Salomon Brother,USAir和Champion International相比较又会怎么样呢?Berkshire Hathaway公司的形成该公司成立于1889年,最初是一个伯克希尔棉花制造厂,最终发展成为新英格兰最大的纺织品生产商,该公司的纺织品占了该国棉纺织品生产总额的25%。
在1995年,Berkshire公司和 Hathaway公司合并,之后由于通货膨胀、技术转变和外国竞争者激烈的竞争,公司的状况开始了长期的下降。
在1965年,1在宣布收购的当天,Berkshire Hathaway 公司的股票价格增加了609.6美元,公司流通在外的股份数额为1177750股。
2巴菲特持有Berkshire Hathaway 公司股票的最初成本是每股17.578美元,在1995年8月25日每股的收盘价为每股25400美元。
3Robert G. Hagstrom, Jr., 巴菲特之路(New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1994); Andrew Kilpatrick, 巴菲特的故事巴菲特和一些合作伙伴获得了Berkshire Hathaway 公司的控制权,他们认为下降的趋势是可以逆转的。
在接下来的20年内,显而易见的是尽管大额资本投资的财务回报很一般,但它仍需要保持竞争力。
在1985年,Berkshire Hathaway 公司肢解了纺织品业务。
幸运的是,该纺织品部门在最初几年获得了足够的现金以至于公司能够购买奥马哈的两家保险公司——National Indemnity保险公司和National Fire & Marine保险公司。
其他业务的收购发生在紧随其后的20世纪70年代和20世纪80年代。
Berkshire Hathaway 公司每股的投资业绩让大多数的观察者则感到非常吃惊。
在1977年,该公司股票的年末收盘价格是89美元,在1995年8月25日,公司股票的收盘价格则高达25400美元。
相比之下,从1977年到1994年所有大公司股票的年平均总收益是14.3%4。
在同样的期间,标准普尔500股价指数从107点长到560点。
一些观察者要求巴菲特对股票进行分割以使它的个人投资者更容易获得。
巴菲特坚决拒绝了。
在1994年,Berkshire Hathaway 公司将自己描述成拥有很多从事一定数量分散业务活动的分支部门的混和公司5。
表一对各个不同分支机构的收入、营运利润、资本支出、折旧和资产做了简要的概述。
截止1994年,Berkshire Hathaway 公司投资组合业务包括以下几个部分:(1)保险公司。
在两者直接再保险的基础上,Berkshire Hathaway 公司投资组合最大的组成部分集中在财产险和事故险两个方面。
保险公司方面的投资组合包括在10个其他公开交易公司的有意思的权益收益。
该权益收益和Berkshire Hathaway 公司在这些公司没有未分配的营运收益的份额如表二所示。
由于在公认会计准则的条件下这些公司中某些公司的收益不能和Berkshire Hathaway 公司的收益加在一起,巴菲特公布了Berkshire Hathaway 公司的“look-though”6收益,如表二所示。
主要投资的未分配收益份额占了Berkshire Hathaway 公司全部“look-though”收益的4股票、债券、票据和通货膨胀(Chicago: Ibbotson Associats, 1994)5Berkshire Hathaway 公司1994年年报6“Look-though” earning是Berkshire Hathaway 公司收入报表上的经营收益加上没有在Berkshire Hathaway 公司利润表上显(表2用的是14%示的主要投资的未分配的经营收益之和,减去如果这些经营收益分配给Berkshire Hathaway 公司应交的税。
40%到50%。
表三概括了Berkshire Hathaway 公司最近几年的可转换优先股7的投资情况,可转换优先股作为许多公司的白衣骑士——这些公司中的每一个公司将成为实际或者谣言接管的目标。
(2)Buffalo News。
在纽约北部的日报公司。
(3)Fechheimer。
一个制服的生产商和批发商。
(4)Kirby。
一个家庭清洁系统及其配件的生产者和市场销售者。
(5)内布拉斯加州家具。
家庭妆饰的零售商。
(6)See’s Candies。
一个盒装巧克力和其他糖果产品的生产商和批发商。
(7)Childcraft and Word Book。
大百科全书和相关教育书籍的出版商和批发商。
(8)Campbell Hausfeld。
空中压缩机、空中交通工具和油漆系统的生产商和批发商。
(9)H.H. Brown Shoe Company; Lowell Shoe, inc.; and Dexter Shoe Company。
一个鞋类产品的生产商、进口商和批发商。
除了这些业务,Berkshire Hathaway 公司拥有一类小的业务8,该业务大约产生了4亿美元的收入。
Berkshire Hathaway 公司的收购政策对GEICO收购的宣布使得广大投资者对巴菲特的收购方法进行了重新认识。
表4给出了Berkshire Hathaway 公司1994年年报中收购策略的一般陈述。
总的来说,该收购策略显示了一个周密的纪律策略,即巴菲特从来不因为别的公司做出了Berkshire Hathaway 公司自身也可轻易做出的行动而奖励它们。
因此,分析者仔细观察这些标准以评价在什么地方他们能对巴菲特提供一些好的建议。
一个巴菲特提到的显著的例子是1986年Berkshire Hathaway 公司收购Scott & Fetzer公司。
在面对其他公司敌意收购的谣言时,该公司的管理者已经打算实行杠杆收购。
当公司的劳工部门拒绝使用公司员工持股计划来获得所需的资金时,杠杆收购便落败了。
不久,这家吸引了一些公司来主动收购它,其中包括一个来自于Ivan F Boesky的套利者。
巴菲特以3.15亿美元的报价来购买此公司(和该公司的市场价格1.726亿美元形成鲜明的对比)。
该收购之后,Scott & Fetzer公司发放给Berkshire Hathaway 公司1.25亿美元的股利,即使它当年仅仅挣到0.403亿美元。
另外,Scott & Fetzer公司在融资上非常的保守,从刚开始温和的债务到1994年的没有债务。
表5给出了Scott & Fetzer公司1986年到1994年的收益和红利情况,巴菲特指出从权益账面价值收益率来衡量,Scott & Fetzer公司将很容易地击败世界500强的企业9。
大公司股票从1986年到1994年年平均总回报为12.6%10。
巴菲特的投资理念巴菲特第一次接受正式的培训是在哥伦比亚大学,当时他的导师是Benjamin Graham教授。