第2讲-从众行为

Lecture2Bandwagon BehaviorA truly formed diner would choose a restaurant based on the quality of the menu and the chef’s experience.The discerning investor would decide which company to back after studying the business plan and meeting the founders.In reality,people often copy the choices of others. Diners pick the crowded restaurant over the empty one.Investors go with the company that already has multiple backers.Such bandwagon effects are not necessarily irrational.Often,the buyer knows less about a product than the seller;the collective wisdom of the crowd can correct for such“asymmetric information”.Scholars are now asking whether herd behavior also prevails in labor markets.To find out, Kory Kroft of the University of Toronto devised an experiment in which they applied for3,000 clerical,administrative,sales and customer-service jobs advertised online by submitting12,000 fictitious CVs.The submissions were designed so that applicants with similar backgrounds, education and experience went for the same job.The only difference was how long the applicant had been jobless,a period that ranged from no time at all to as much as36months.They found that the odds of an applicant being called back by an employer declined steadily as the duration of unemployment rose,from7.4%after one month without work down to4-5%at the eight-month mark,where the call-back rate stabilized.These results,the authors say,cannot be because employers found some qualitative flaw in the longer-term unemployed that was hidden from outsiders,since the applicants were similar in other respects.Another explanation for long-term unemployment—that people make less effort to find work as their time out of the labor force lengthens—is also not applicable here.A third possibility is that employers equate lengthening unemployment with atrophying skills and thus falling productivity.But this should be true whether the economy is booming or in recession.The decline in call-back rates was much more pronounced in cities with tight labour markets;call-back rates changed relatively little when higher unemployment prevailed locally. From this,the authors infer that employers are more likely to overlook a long period of unemployment if overall economic conditions are stacked against candidates.These results strongly suggest that long-term unemployment is at least partly self-fulfilling. Like patrons who avoid restaurants purely because they are empty,employers were reluctant to hire someone other employers didn’t want.[403words]1.By saying“asymmetric information”(Para.1),what does the author mean?[A]The collective wisdom is more than an individual’s.[B]The crowd may have more information of product.[C]The seller have more wisdom than the buyer.[D]The seller know more than the buyer of the product information.2.Kory Kroft of the University of Toronto devised an experiment to___________.[A]figure out whether bandwagon behavior is also popular in labor markets[B]test the difference of applicants with similar backgrounds,education and experience[C]test the fictitious CVs for3,000clerical,administrative,sales and customer-service jobs[D]figure out how the bandwagon behavior affect the choice of employee3.One reasonable explanation for the research results may be___________.[A]employers found some qualitative flaw in the longer-term unemployed[B]people make less effort to find work as their unemployment time lengthens[C]lengthy unemployment is equivalent of descending productivity[D]call-back rates declined clearly when higher unemployment prevailed4.The research results convey the message that___________.[A]long-term unemployment has nothing to do with call-back rates[B]long-term unemployment is to some extent caused by people themselves[C]patrons avoid restaurants purely because they are empty[D]employers were willing to hire someone other employers didn’t want5.Generally speaking,the author’s attitude towards bandwagon behavior is___________.[A]indifferent[B]critical[C]negative[D]favorable第2讲从众行为文章难度：3星文章题材：科普知识真正见多识广的食客会根据饭菜的质量和厨师的经验来选择餐馆。

有眼光的投资者会在研究了商业计划并同创始人会面之后才决定投资哪家公司。

但在实际生活中，人们却经常原封不动地跟随别人的选择。

就餐者常去顾客盈门的餐馆，而不去那些没人光顾的地方。

投资者喜好选择那些早已被大多数人所看好的公司。

此类从众效应不一定是非理性的。

一般来说，买方对商品的了解要少于卖方，而大众的集体智慧却可以修正这种“不对称信息”。

学者们正在探讨这种从众行为在劳动力市场是否同样盛行。

为了验证这种看法。

多伦多大学的科丽•克拉夫特设计了一项实验。

在这项实验中，他们利用提交12,000份虚假简历的办法，申请了由在线广告发布的3000个职位，这些职位包括办事员、管理人员、销售人员以及客服人员。

被提交的求职申请都遵循了同一个设计原则，其目的就是要使具有相似背景、学历和经验的申请者都去申请同一份工作。