Forecasting the development of boreal paludified forests in response to climate change
管理经济学--生意和经济的预测(1)-文档资料
The residuals form the detrended series
Basically, the trend has been partialled out
If a series is weakly dependent and is stationary about its trend, we will call it a trend-stationary process
Detrending
Adding a linear trend term to a regression is the same thing as using “detrended” series in a regression
Gives the Expected Direction
Quantitative Forecasting 2.7654 %
Gives the precise Amount
2002 South-Western Publishing
Time-Series Characteristics: Secular Trend and Cyclical Variation in Women’s Clothing Sales
Thus, this weaker form of stationarity requires only that the mean and variance are constant across time, and the covariance just depends on the distance across time
利益相关者理论的分析---原创
第一章
1.1
我国改革开放以来，随着经济的迅猛发展，房地产市场得以全面启动，使得土地使用制度和住房分配制度下的另一产物——物业管理应运而生。中国的物业管理始于八十年代初的经济特区深圳，伴随我国城市化进程加剧，住房制度的改革和房管制度的革新，以及中国房地产业的迅猛发展，新建商品房住宅的数量日益增多，而且越来越呈现出住宅小区规模大型化、功能综合化的特点。传统的房屋管理方式已经不能适应住宅产业迅速发展的需要。大量住宅小区投入使用，带来了管理工作的变化，除了对房屋进行维修外，还必须对附属物、设备、场地、环卫、绿化、道路、治安进行专业化管理，以保持住宅小区的完好，发挥其整体功能和综合效益。物业管理作为一种新型的管理方式越来越受到开发商的重视和业主的欢迎，它对促进房地产业的良性运转，推动我国经济发展，改善人民生活条件以及提高城市现代文明都起了重要的作用。在今后相当长一段时期内，随着住宅建设的持续快速发展以及旧住宅区物业管理覆盖面的不断扩大，将保持快速发展。在《国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划》中提出“在全面发展城市社区建设，把社区建设成为管理有序、服务完善、文明祥和的社会生活共同体中需要充分发挥物业管理机构的积极作用”。
Combing the stakeholder theory system, this paper explain the evolution process of stakeholder theory and the important factors, such as literature analysis, case analysis research method, on the basis of combining the theory of strategic management as well as in the actual matrix model of stakeholder analysis, focusreflects the property company, government, owner and the benefit analysis and behavioral effects between real estate developers.Finally, combining with the actual situation of zhuji city, zhuji city, put forward in accordance with property overall strategy implementation suggestion for the development of the company.Zhuji city, at the same time, the government to help property management at the same time, also puts forward the relevant policy recommendations, zhuji city, expect this research can advance the progress on the property management company governance.
Forecasting Parametes of a firm (input, output and - Angelfire一个公司的预测参数(输入,输出与在所
Steps: 1. Specify the variable that are supposed to affect
the values of output in question. 2. Collect time series data on the independent
variables 3. specify equation that appropriately describe the
variable of interest appears to be function of time then models like averaging, smoothing and linear regression can be used. Casual: If historical data available and variable of interest appears to be function of something else of time then models like multiple regression and economic models can be used.
5. Graphical methods: Free hand line is drawn over the years. This method shows the trend but not the actual quantity.
Regression method
• Regression analysis is the most frequently employed method of estimating future values. This method combines the economic theory and statistical techniques of estimation. Economic method is employed to specify the determinants that afect the value of output in question. Statistical techniques are employed in making estimates .
中国石油托福考试试题
中国石油托福考试试题一、听力部分1. 问题：What is the main topic of the lecture?答案：The lecture is mainly about the exploration and extraction techniques of shale gas.2. 问题：Why does the professor mention the term "fracking"?答案：To illustrate the process used to extract oil and gas from rock formations.二、阅读部分3. 问题：According to the passage, what is one advantage of offshore drilling?答案：It can access large deposits of oil that are not accessible from land.4. 问题：What is the author's attitude towards renewable energy sources?答案：The author is supportive and believes they are a key to a sustainable future.三、语法部分5. 问题：Choose the correct verb form to complete the sentence: "By the year 2030, scientists predict that solar power will have _______ oil as the primary energy source."答案：replaced6. 问题：Identify the error in the following sentence: "Petroleum isa natural resource that is used for fuels, lubricants, and for making plastics."答案：No error (the sentence is correct).四、口语部分7. 问题：Talk about a technology that has had a significant impact on the oil industry. Include reasons and examples to support your response.答案：Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has revolutionized the oil industry by allowing access to previously unavailable oil and gas deposits. This technology has increased production and contributed to energy independence in many countries.五、写作部分8. 问题：Write a paragraph about the environmental impacts of oil drilling.答案：Oil drilling has significant environmental impacts, including habitat destruction, water pollution, and contribution to climate change. To mitigate these effects, strict regulations and advanced technologies are necessary.9. 问题：Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? "The world should completely stop using fossil fuels in the near future." Use specific reasons and examples to support your answer.答案：(This requires a personal opinion, but here's a sample response for the agree perspective:) I agree that the world should transition away from fossil fuels. Renewable energy sources like solar and wind are becoming more efficient and affordable, and they do not have the negative environmental impacts of fossil fuels.10. 问题：Summarize the main points of the lecture on the history of the oil industry.答案：The lecture traced the history of the oil industry from its inception in the 19th century to the modern era. Key points included the discovery of major oil fields, the development of new extraction technologies, and the impact of oil on global politics and the environment.。
全国大学英语CET四级考试试卷及解答参考
全国大学英语CET四级考试模拟试卷及解答参考一、写作（15分）Section I: Writing (30 minutes)Directions: For this part, you are allowed 30 minutes to write a short essay on the topic “The Advantages and Disadvantages of Studying Abroad”. You should write at least 120 words but no more than 180 words.Writing Sample:Studying abroad is an experience that can be both exhilarating and challenging. On one hand, it offers numerous advantages that contribute to personal growth and career development. When students go abroad, they are exposed to new cultures, which can broaden their perspectives and foster a deeper understanding of the world. Additionally, international study programs often provide access to cutting-edge research and technology, as well as opportunities to learn from leading experts in various fields. Furthermore, studying in a foreign country can enhance language skills and communication abilities, which are highly valued by employers around the globe.On the other hand, there are also some disadvantages associated with studying overseas. The cost of living and tuition fees in many countries can be significantly higher, placing a financial burden on students and their families. Moreover, being away from home for an extended period can lead tofeelings of homesickness and isolation, especially if the student struggles to integrate into the local community. There’s also the challenge of adapting to a different educational system, which might not always align with the student’s learning style or previous academic experiences.In conclusion, while studying abroad has its pros and as well as cons, it is up to each individual to weigh these factors and decide whether such an opportunity is right for them. It is important to consider personal goals, financial circumstances, and adaptability before making the decision to embark on this life-changing journey.Analysis:•Introduction: The writer starts by acknowledging the dual nature of studying abroad, highlighting that it is both exciting and filled with challenges. This sets the stage for a balanced discussion.•Body Paragraphs:•The first body paragraph focuses on the benefits of studying abroad. The writer points out three key advantages: exposure to new cultures, access to advanced resources, and improvement in language and communicationskills. Each point is briefly explained to support the claim.•In the second body paragraph, the writer addresses the potential drawbacks.The high costs, emotional difficulties like homesickness, and the need to adapt to a new educational system are all mentioned. These points help to present a realistic view of the experience.•Conclusion: The concluding paragraph summarizes the main ideas and suggests that the suitability of studying abroad depends on thei ndividual’s personal circumstances. It encourages readers to carefullyconsider their own situation before deciding, reinforcing the idea that while the experience can be beneficial, it is not without its challenges.•Language and Style: The sample uses clear and concise language, appropriate for a formal essay. Transitions between paragraphs and within paragraphs are smooth, ensuring that the flow of the argument is logical and easy to follow. The use of specific examples (e.g., “access tocutting-edge rese arch and technology”) adds credibility to the arguments presented.This writing sample effectively demonstrates how to structure a balanced argumentative essay, providing a good model for students preparing for the CET-4 writing section.二、听力理解-短篇新闻（选择题，共7分）第一题News 1A team of archaeologists has discovered a well-preserved ancient city in the desert of northern China. The city, believed to be around 1,500 years old, was found near the Gobi Desert. The discovery includes buildings, roads, and even some artifacts. Experts say the city could provide valuable insights intothe ancient Silk Road trade route.Questions:1、What was the age of the ancient city discovered in the desert of northern China?A) 1,000 years old.B) 1,200 years old.C) 1,500 years old.D) 1,800 years old.2、What is the main discovery made by the archaeologists?A) A large number of ancient artifacts.B) A well-preserved ancient city.C) A new trade route.D) Remains of an ancient Silk Road post.3、What is the significance of this discovery according to the experts?A) It reveals the secrets of ancient Silk Road traders.B) It provides information about the climate change in the region.C) It helps understand the ancient trade routes.D) It confirms the existence of a mythical city.Answers:1、C) 1,500 years old.2、B) A well-preserved ancient city.3、C) It helps understand the ancient trade routes.News Content:The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) announced yesterday that it will launch a global initiative aimed at promoting digital literacy among young people around the world. The program, called “Code for All,” is design ed to equip students with basic coding skills and an understanding of digital ethics. It aims to reach at least one million students in its first year, providing them with free online courses and resources.Questions:1、According to the news item, what is the name of UNESCO’s new global initiative?A. Digital FutureB. Code for AllC. Global Ethics OnlineAnswer: B. Code for All2、What is the primary goal of the “Code for All” program?A. To provide free computers to underprivileged studentsB. To teach students about digital ethics and coding basicsC. To promote the use of digital devices in classroomsAnswer: B. To teach students about digital ethics and coding basics3、How many students does UNESCO aim to reach with this program in its firstA. At least fifty thousandB. At least five hundred thousandC. At least one millionAnswer: C. At least one million三、听力理解-长对话（选择题，共8分）第一题Part ThreeSection ADirections: In this section, you will hear a long conversation. At the end of the conversation, you will hear some questions. Both the conversation and the questions will be spoken only once. After you hear a question, you must choose the best answer from the four choices marked A), B), C) and D). Then mark the corresponding letter on Answer Sheet 2 with a single line through the centre.ConversationW: Hi, John. I’m glad to see you here. How was your vacation?M: Oh, it was great. I went hiking in the mountains with my friends.W: That sounds wonderful. How long did you stay there?M: We stayed for a week. It was really beautiful up there. The scenery was just stunning.W: I can imagine. Did you do anything special while you were there?M: Yes, we went on a trek. It was challenging, but I enjoyed it a lot.W: That sounds exciting. Did you see any wildlife?M: Yes, we saw a lot of birds and some animals. It was amazing to see them in their natural habitat.W: It must have been a memorable experience. Do you plan to go hiking again?M: Definitely. I think it’s a great way to relax and enjoy nature.Questions1、What did John do during his vacation?A) He went on a trek.B) He visited his friends.C) He stayed in a hotel.D) He went hiking.2、How long did John stay in the mountains?A) A few days.B) A week.C) Two weeks.D) A month.3、What did John think of the scenery in the mountains?A) It was average.B) It was beautiful.C) It was boring.D) It was dangerous.4、What did John enjoy the most about his vacation?A) Hiking.B) Relaxing.C) Visiting his friends.D) Seeing wildlife.第二题Listen to the following long conversation and then answer the questions that follow. The conversation will be spoken twice.Conversation:M: Hey, Sarah, how’s it going with your final project for Professor Johnson’s environmental science class?W: Oh, hi, Tom. It’s coming along, but I’m really struggling with the research on renewable energy sources. There’s just so much information out there, it’s hard to know wh ere to start.M: Yeah, I can imagine. Have you considered focusing on solar or wind energy? Those seem to be the most developed technologies right now.W: Well, I’ve read quite a bit about solar energy, but I’m not sure if it’s the best topic for my projec t. What do you think?M: I think it would be a good choice because there’s a lot of current research on improving efficiency and reducing costs. Plus, there are plenty of real-world applications to discuss.W: That sounds like a good point. But isn’t wind energy also important?Maybe I should compare the two?M: Definitely! Comparing them could make your project stand out. You could talk about the advantages and disadvantages of each and maybe even touch on their implementation in different countries.W: Hm m…that gives me an idea. Thanks, Tom. I’ll start working on that angle right away!1、What is Sarah working on?A) A final exam preparation.B)An environmental science project.C) A presentation on renewable energy.D) A report on real-world applications.Answer: B) An environmental science project.2、Why is Sarah finding her research challenging?A)She is unsure about the focus of her project.B)She has too many resources on solar energy.C)She lacks information on renewable energy sources.D)She finds it difficult to organize her notes.Answer: A) She is unsure about the focus of her project.3、What suggestion does Tom give Sarah regarding her project?A)To concentrate solely on wind energy.B)To choose between solar and wind energy.C)To include both solar and wind energy in her study.D)To disregard solar energy as it’s too common.Answer: C) To include both solar and wind energy in her study.4、What aspect of renewable energy might Sarah consider discussing according to Tom?A)The historical development of solar technology.B)The cost-effectiveness of nuclear energy.C)The implementation of solar and wind energy globally.D)The theoretical basis of hydroelectric power.Answer: C) The implementation of solar and wind energy globally.四、听力理解-听力篇章（选择题，共20分）第一题PassageThe rise of automation in the workplace has sparked a debate about the future of employment. While many argue that automation will lead to job losses, others believe it will create new opportunities. In this article, we explore both perspectives and discuss the potential impact on the workforce.In the short term, automation is likely to displace workers in certain industries. For example, the manufacturing sector has already seen a significant reduction in jobs due to the introduction of robots and automated machinery. Similarly, the service industry, particularly in areas such as retail and food service, may experience a decrease in employment as self-service kiosks and automated systems become more common.However, proponents of automation argue that it will also create new job opportunities. As technology advances, new industries and professions will emerge. For instance, the demand for professionals skilled in programming, robotics, and artificial intelligence is expected to grow. These new roles will require a different set of skills, which may necessitate a shift in education and training programs.Moreover, automation can lead to increased productivity and efficiency, potentially boosting overall economic growth. With more tasks automated, employees can focus on higher-value work, which may lead to job satisfaction and improved job performance.Despite these positive aspects, the transition to automation may not be smooth for all workers. The initial displacement of jobs could lead to social and economic challenges. For example, workers who lose their jobs due to automation may struggle to find new employment, particularly if they lack the necessary skills to adapt to the changing job market.Questions:1、What is the main concern expressed about automation in the workplace?A) It will lead to increased productivity.B) It will create new job opportunities.C) It will cause job losses in certain industries.D) It will boost economic growth.2、According to the passage, which of the following is a potentialconsequence of automation in the manufacturing sector?A) An increase in manufacturing jobs.B) A decrease in manufacturing jobs.C) No significant change in manufacturing jobs.D) A shift in the types of jobs available in manufacturing.3、What is one of the positive impacts of automation mentioned in the passage?A) It will reduce the need for education and training.B) It will lead to job satisfaction and improved job performance.C) It will decrease the overall economic growth.D) It will eliminate the need for higher-value work.Answers:1、C2、B3、BSecond Part: Listening Comprehension - Listening PassageDirections: In this part, you will hear a passage about campus life. Listen carefully and then choose the best answer from the four choices marked A), B), C), and D). You will hear the passage only once.Passage:The university has recently renovated its library facilities in order to provide students with a more comfortable and conducive environment for study. The renovations include new seating arrangements that promote group work as wellas individual study booths equipped with power outlets for laptops and charging devices. Moreover, there’s an increased number of computers ava ilable for student use, all connected to a high-speed internet network. The library now also offers extended hours during exam periods, staying open until midnight to accommodate students’ needs. Finally, the library staff has implemented a new system for reserving books online, which allows students to request materials from the comfort of their dorms or homes.Questions:1、What recent change has been made to improve the library experience?A. Extended opening hours throughout the yearB. Addition of more individual study booths onlyC. Implementation of a system for online book reservationsD. All of the aboveAnswer: D. All of the above2、、Which feature was added to support both collaborative and solo learning?A. High-speed internet connectionB. Extended library hours during examsC. New seating arrangements including group work spaces and individual boothsD. An increase in the number of available computersAnswer: C. New seating arrangements including group work spaces and individual booths3、、How can students now reserve books according to the passage?A. By visiting the library’s information deskB. Through an online reservation systemC. By calling the library’s front deskD. Books cannot be reserved; they must be collected in personAnswer: B. Through an online reservation system第三题Passage OneIn recent years, there has been a growing concern about the impact of technology on human relationships. With the advent of smartphones and social media, people are more connected than ever before. However, some argue that this technological advancement has led to a decline in face-to-face interactions and the quality of relationships.The first paragraph introduces the topic by highlighting the increasing reliance on technology for communication. It mentions that while technology has brought convenience, it has also raised concerns about its impact on human interactions.1、What is the main topic of the passage?A) The benefits of technology in communication.B) The decline of face-to-face interactions.C) The rise of social media.D) The impact of technology on relationships.2、According to the passage, what is the main concern regarding the use of technology?A) It enhances the efficiency of communication.B) It leads to a decrease in the quality of relationships.C) It replaces traditional forms of communication.D) It creates more opportunities for socializing.3、The author implies that:A) Technology has completely replaced face-to-face interactions.B) The use of technology has no negative effects on relationships.C) People are increasingly aware of the negative impacts of technology on relationships.D) Social media is the only way to maintain relationships in the modern world.Answer:1、D2、B3、C五、阅读理解-词汇理解（填空题，共5分）第一题Reading PassageIn recent years, the importance of online education has grown significantly. With the rapid development of technology, especially the internet, people cannow access educational resources from anywhere in the world. This has led to a rise in the number of online courses and platforms offering a wide range of subjects. While online education offers numerous benefits, such as flexibility and convenience, it also presents challenges that need to be addressed.The following paragraph contains a list of words or phrases, each of which is followed by five examples. Choose the example that best keeps the meaning of the word or phrase in the context of the passage.Vocabulary Understanding1.The rapid development of technology has led to a significant increase in the number of online courses and platforms.a)The number of new businesses in the tech sector has surged.b)The number of students enrolling in online courses has gone up dramatically.c)The number of traffic accidents has decreased due to better road designs.d)The number of people using social media has increased exponentially.e)The number of jobs available in the renewable energy sector has declined.2.Online education offers flexibility and convenience, making it an attractive option for many students.a)The ability to study at any time of the day or night.b)The convenience of not having to travel to a physical location.c)The opportunity to learn from experts in their field.d)The guarantee of better job prospects after completing the course.e)The assurance of a high-quality education regardless of location.3.This has led to a rise in the number of online courses and platforms offering a widerange of subjects.a)The variety of subjects available online has expanded.b)The number of students interested in online education has decreased.c)The number of teachers offering online courses has gone up.d)The number of traditional educational institutions has increased.e)The number of jobs in the online education industry has decreased.4.While online education offers numerous benefits, it also presents challenges that need to be addressed.a)The challenges faced by online students are similar to those in traditional education.b)Online education does not require any challenges to be overcome.c)The challenges of online education are often overlooked.d)The challenges of online education are unique and require specific solutions.e)The challenges of online education are not a concern for most students.5.It also presents challenges that need to be addressed.a)The solutions to these challenges are straightforward.b)These challenges can be easily resolved.c)These challenges require careful consideration and planning.d)These challenges are not significant enough to warrant attention.e)These challenges are beyond the scope of this discussion.Answers:1.b2.a3.a4.d5.c第二题Reading Passage:The Internet has revolutionized the way we communicate, access information, and conduct business. With just a few clicks, we can connect with people from all over the world, access a vast amount of information, and even shop online. However, this convenience comes with its own set of challenges. One of the most significant challenges is the need to stay informed about the latest developments in technology and cybersecurity. In this article, we will discuss some of the key factors that contribute to the importance of staying informed in the digital age.Vocabulary Understanding:Please choose the correct word from the list below to complete each sentence. Write the letter (A), (B), (C), or (D) corresponding to the correct answer in the blank space provided.1.The rapid A. evolution / B. revolution / C. evolutionism / D. evolutionist of technology has made it crucial for individuals to stay informed about the latest advancements.2.In order to protect their personal information, users must be aware of the potential risks associated with A. cybercrime / B. cybernetics / C. cyberneticist / D. cybernetic3.The article highlights the importance of A. vigilance / B. vigilance /C. vigilantly /D. vigilant in the face of increasing cyber threats.4.Staying informed about new developments in cybersecurity is essential forbusinesses to A. safeguard / B. safeguarding / C. safeguarded / D. safeguarding5.The author emphasizes the need for continuous learning to keep up with the ever-changing landscape of the digital world.Answers:1.A. evolution2.A. cybercrime3.D. vigilant4.A. safeguard5.A. keep up with六、阅读理解-长篇阅读（选择题，共10分）第一题Passage OneChina’s cultural revolution, which lasted from 1966 to 1976, was a social movement with a political motive, led by the Communist Party of China. It aimed to purify the Party and society from capitalist and cultural influences. The movement was marked by widespread violence, including the persecution of intellectuals and the destruction of cultural relics. Despite its tragic consequences, the cultural revolution has left a lasting impact on Chinese society and its people.Questions:1、What was the main purpose of the cultural revolution?A. To promote economic development.B. To reform the education system.C. To purify the Party and society.D. To strengthen the military.2、Which of the following was not a consequence of the cultural revolution?A. Widespread violence.B. The persecution of intellectuals.C. The destruction of cultural relics.D. The improvement of the economy.3、What was the impact of the cultural revolution on Chinese society?A. It led to economic prosperity.B. It brought about social stability.C. It left a lasting impact on Chinese society and its people.D. It had no significant impact on Chinese society.4、Who was the leader of the cultural revolution?A. Mao Zedong.B. Zhou Enlai.C. Deng Xiaoping.D. Li Xiannian.5、What was one of the tragic consequences of the cultural revolution?A. The improvement of education.B. The enhancement of cultural heritage.C. The promotion of political unity.D. The persecution of intellectuals.Answers:1、C. To purify the Party and society.2、D. The improvement of the economy.3、C. It left a lasting impact on Chinese society and its people.4、A. Mao Zedong.5、D. The persecution of intellectuals.第二题Reading PassageIn recent years, the concept of “soft skills” has gained increasing attention in the job market. While technical skills are crucial for many positions, soft skills, such as communication, teamwork, and problem-solving, are becoming equally important. This passage discusses the importance of soft skill s and provides examples of how they can impact one’s career.1.The first paragraph introduces the growing importance of soft skills. Which of the following best describes the author’s tone in this paragraph?A. CondescendingB. BoredC. EnthusiasticD. Indifferent2.According to the passage, why are soft skills becoming more significant in the job market?A. They are becoming less relevant in the digital age.B. They are being overlooked by employers.C. They complement technical skills and enhance job performance.D. They are no longer taught in schools.3.The passage mentions a study that shows the impact of soft skills on job performance. What was the main finding of this study?A. Soft skills have no significant impact on job performance.B. Soft skills can lead to a 10-15% increase in job performance.C. Technical skills are more important than soft skills for job success.D. Soft skills are only beneficial in certain industries.4.The passage discusses the importance of communication skills in the workplace. Which of the following is NOT mentioned as an example of how communication skills can be beneficial?A. Clear and concise communication can prevent misunderstandings.B. Effective communication can help build strong relationships with colleagues.C. Communication skills are only important for jobs that involve a lot of speaking.D. Good communication can lead to better collaboration and teamwork.5.The passage concludes by emphasizing the need for continuous improvement in soft skills. What is the author’s final point?A. Soft skills are innate and cannot be improved.B. Technical skills should be prioritized over soft skills.C. Employers should focus on developing soft skills in their employees.D. Soft skills are not important until one is in a leadership position.Answers:1.C2.C3.B4.C5.C七、阅读理解-仔细阅读（选择题，共20分）第一题Reading PassageIn recent years, the rise of online education has sparked a heated debate among educators and the public. While some argue that it offers numerous benefits, such as flexibility and accessibility, others express concerns about its potential drawbacks, including the lack of personal interaction and the potential for cheating.Questions:1、What is the main topic of the passage?A. The benefits of online educationB. The drawbacks of online educationC. The impact of online education on traditional educationD. The debate surrounding online education2、The passage states that some educators and the public are concerned about the lack of what in online education?A. FlexibilityB. AccessibilityC. Personal interactionD. Cheating3、According to the passage, what is one of the advantages of online education mentioned?A. It requires less personal interactionB. It is less accessible to studentsC. It offers more flexibilityD. It is more likely to lead to cheating4、The author suggests that the debate about online education is:A. Unnecessary, as the benefits outweigh the drawbacksB. Necessary, as it affects the future of educationC. Unimportant, as online education will eventually replace traditional educationD. Irrelevant, as the benefits of online education are well-documented5、Which of the following is NOT mentioned as a concern about online education in the passage?A. The potential for students to get distractedB. The lack of face-to-face communicationC. The possibility of cheatingD. The difficulty of assessing students’ understandingAnswers:1、D2、C3、C4、B5、ASecond QuestionRead the following text carefully and then answer the questions below.In the small town of Willow Creek, there was a local library that had been a cornerstone of the community for over a century. The library, known affectionately as “The Cornerstone,” was more than just a place to borrow books; it was a hub of cultural activities, a source of information, and a gathering spot for residents of all ages.One day, the library faced a significant challenge. The town’s mayor, who was a strong advocate for education and community development, announced that due to budget cuts, the library would have to close its doors. The news spread quickly through the town, causing a wave of concern and sadness among the residents.1、The library in Willow Creek was referred to as “The Cornerstone” because:A. It was built at the center of the town.B. It was the oldest building in the town.C. It played a vital role in the community.D. It had a cornerstone made of a unique stone.2、The main issue facing the library was:A. A lack of books for the community.B. A decrease in the number of visitors.C. Budget cuts that threatened its closure.D. The mayor’s disinterest in its operations.3、The response to the library’s potential closure was:A. The mayor proposed building a new library elsewhere.B. The residents ignored the news and continued their daily routines.C. The community held a peaceful protest in front of the library.D. The local businesses offered to donate books to the library.4、Which of the following is NOT mentioned as a role the library played in the community?A. A hub of cultural activities.B. A source of employment for the town.C. A place for educational programs.D. A gathering spot for residents.。
专题05 阅读理解D篇(2024年新课标I卷) (专家评价+三年真题+满分策略+多维变式) 原卷版
《2024年高考英语新课标卷真题深度解析与考后提升》专题05阅读理解D篇（新课标I卷）原卷版(专家评价+全文翻译+三年真题+词汇变式+满分策略+话题变式)目录一、原题呈现P2二、答案解析P3三、专家评价P3四、全文翻译P3五、词汇变式P4(一)考纲词汇词形转换P4(二)考纲词汇识词知意P4(三)高频短语积少成多P5(四)阅读理解单句填空变式P5(五)长难句分析P6六、三年真题P7(一)2023年新课标I卷阅读理解D篇P7(二)2022年新课标I卷阅读理解D篇P8(三)2021年新课标I卷阅读理解D篇P9七、满分策略（阅读理解说明文）P10八、阅读理解变式P12 变式一：生物多样性研究、发现、进展6篇P12变式二：阅读理解D篇35题变式（科普研究建议类）6篇P20一原题呈现阅读理解D篇关键词: 说明文;人与社会;社会科学研究方法研究;生物多样性; 科学探究精神;科学素养In the race to document the species on Earth before they go extinct, researchers and citizen scientists have collected billions of records. Today, most records of biodiversity are often in the form of photos, videos, and other digital records. Though they are useful for detecting shifts in the number and variety of species in an area, a new Stanford study has found that this type of record is not perfect.“With the rise of technology it is easy for people to make observation s of different species with the aid of a mobile application,” said Barnabas Daru, who is lead author of the study and assistant professor of biology in the Stanford School of Humanities and Sciences. “These observations now outnumber the primary data that comes from physical specimens(标本), and since we are increasingly using observational data to investigate how species are responding to global change, I wanted to know: Are they usable?”Using a global dataset of 1.9 billion records of plants, insects, birds, and animals, Daru and his team tested how well these data represent actual global biodiversity patterns.“We were particularly interested in exploring the aspects of sampling that tend to bias (使有偏差) data, like the greater likelihood of a citizen scientist to take a picture of a flowering plant instead of the grass right next to it,” said Daru.Their study revealed that the large number of observation-only records did not lead to better global coverage. Moreover, these data are biased and favor certain regions, time periods, and species. This makes sense because the people who get observational biodiversity data on mobile devices are often citizen scientists recording their encounters with species in areas nearby. These data are also biased toward certain species with attractive or eye-catching features.What can we do with the imperfect datasets of biodiversity?“Quite a lot,” Daru explained. “Biodiversity apps can use our study results to inform users of oversampled areas and lead them to places – and even species – that are not w ell-sampled. To improve the quality of observational data, biodiversity apps can also encourage users to have an expert confirm the identification of their uploaded image.”32. What do we know about the records of species collected now?A. They are becoming outdated.B. They are mostly in electronic form.C. They are limited in number.D. They are used for public exhibition.33. What does Daru’s study focus on?A. Threatened species.B. Physical specimens.C. Observational data.D. Mobile applications.34. What has led to the biases according to the study?A. Mistakes in data analysis.B. Poor quality of uploaded pictures.C. Improper way of sampling.D. Unreliable data collection devices.35. What is Daru’s suggestion for biodiversity apps?A. Review data from certain areas.B. Hire experts to check the records.C. Confirm the identity of the users.D. Give guidance to citizen scientists.二答案解析三专家评价考查关键能力，促进思维品质发展2024年高考英语全国卷继续加强内容和形式创新，优化试题设问角度和方式，增强试题的开放性和灵活性，引导学生进行独立思考和判断，培养逻辑思维能力、批判思维能力和创新思维能力。
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS ENGLISH
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS ENGLISHL1 international business解释1. Customs area2. Conversion3. Visible trade4. GDP5. FDI6. Portfolio investment7. Stocks8. Bonds9. Maturity10. Certificate of deposit11. Licensing12. Franchising13. Trade mark14. Patent15. Royalty16. Copyright17. Management contract18. Licenser19. Licensee20. Franchiser21. Franchisee22. Value chain23. Turkey project24. BOT商务知识1) Major differences between in international business and domestic businessA. Differences in legal systemB. Differences in currenciesC. Differences in cultural backgroundD. Differences in natural and economic conditions2) major types of international businessA. Trade✧Commodity trade✧Service tradeB.investment✧Foreign direct investment✧Portfolio investmentC. Other types✧Licensing and franchising✧Management contract and contract manufactureing✧Turkey project and BOT.问题1. What does international business refer to ?2. Pls tell the difference between international business and domestic business3. Pls explain the differences between visible trade and invisible trade.4. Which is becoming more and more important and accounts for an increasing proportion in international trade?5. Can you site some examples to illustrate cultural differences in international business?6. Pls elaborate on the two categories of international investment.7. What is their major difference?8. What is franchising、9. How is it different from licensing?10. What is licensing?11. Why do firms sometimes choose it as a means of entering a foreign market?12. What is a management contract?13. Under what conditions is it most applicable?14. what is an international turkey project?15. In what way is its variant BOT different from it ?L2 Income level and the world market解释1.GNP2.GDP3.National income4.Per capita income5.Per capita GDP6.PPP7.Consumerism8.Income distribution9.Infrastructure10.Staple goods11.Invoice12.Creditor country商务知识1. GNP&GDP2. Per capita income &Per capita GDP3. High income /middle income /low income country✧Standards for classification✧Representative countries4. Triad & quad✧US✧Western European✧Japan✧Canada问题1. Explain the concept of GNP&GDP and point out their major difference.2. Can we use them interchangeably、3. What are meant by high income,middle income ,and low income countries according to the world bank?4. Cite some examples for each group.5. Why are high income countries important to trade and investment ?6. Should we neglect low income countries in international business?7. In what different ways are GDP and per capita income significant in assessing the potential of a particular market?8. Was china a low income country a few years ago?9. How about now?10. What does the term "triad "refer to ?11. What is meant by Quad?12. How much do you know about OCED?13. Pls make a brief account14. What is the best policy for china to develop business opportunities?L3 regional economic integration解释1. Economic integration2. Free trade area3. Customs union4. Tariff rates5. Settlement6. NAFTA7. Common market8. Banknotes circulation9. Cartel10. APEC11. OPEC12. European commission13. Council of ministers14. Dual-ministerial meeting商务知识1. Major objectives of regional integration2. Four levels of regional economic integrationA. Free trade areaB. Customs unionC. Common marketD. Economic union3. EU4. APEC5. OPEC问题1. What is a free trade area ?2. Make a brief account of the most notable free trade area in the world3. In what way is a customs union different from a free trade area?4. What are the characteristics of a common market?5. Which reorganization remained a common market for some years in the past?6. How much do you know about an economic union?7. Can members of an economic union keep all of their national sovereignty?8. Make a brief account of the origin and development of the EU9. What is the most powerful institution of the EU?10. What is the executive body of the EU? How does it operate?11. Explain briefly the 5 layer organizational structure of APEC12. What are the tenet and objectives of APEC?13. What is meant by its 2 wheels?14. What are the nature and objectives of OPEC?L4 Economic globalization 解释1. Share holders2. Economic globalization3. Board of directors4. Inputs5. Economic environment6. Parent co.7. Affiliate8. Day-to-day running9. Multinational corporation10. Home country11. Host country商务知识1. Economic globalization as an objective trendA. Basic featureB. Advantages and negative impacts2. Multinational corporationsA, organization ---parent and affiliatesB, characteristics①Enormous size②Wide geographical spread③Longevity and rapid growthC,needs,goals,and rolesa. Profitb. Securityc. As vehicles for cross-border transfer of resourcesD,four types(1) multi-domestic corporation(2) Global corporation(3) Transnational corporation(4) World co.问题1. what are the basic feature and major role of economic globalization?2. Mention some of the pros and cons of economic globalization.3. What is the right attitude towards it?4. What is the formal definition of a multinational enterprise?5. How can you tell whether a multinational corporation is a parent or just an affiliate?6. The characteristics of MNEs7. What it the commonly recognized objectives of MNEs?8. Why is security so important to MNEs?9. Do you think "wide geographical spread" of MNEs play a very important role in the development of their business? Why?10. What is the relationship between MNEs and their host country ?11. What are the four types of multinational enterprises?12. Describe each of them briefly13. Are there many world companies at present?14. Imagine their future role in complete globalization?L5 international trade(1)解释1. Services2. Primary commodities3. Specialization4. Absolute advantage5. Comparative advantage6. Capital7. Land & labour商务知识1.the definition of international trade2. 2 reasons for international tradeA. The uneven distribution of natural resources among countriesB. International specialization3. 2 theories for international specializationA. The theory of absolute advantageB. The theory of comparative advantagea. Contents of the theoryb. Not a static conceptc. The cor nstone of modern thinking on international traded. David Ricardo ,the economist who introduced the theory问题1. How would you define international trade?2. Why did international trade first begin?3. What is the new incentive for trade that arose with the development of manufacturing andtechnology?4. According to the theory of absolute advantage ,trade occurs only when a country has an absolute advantage over another . Is that always true?5. Who introduced the theory of comparative advantage?6. Which theory makes more sense, absolute advantage or comparative advantage?7. Explain briefly why trade to exploit comparative advantage promotes efficiency among countries.8. Is comparative advantage something static?9. Is it purely decided by the endowments of nature?10. Give examples to show the development of comparative by certain countries.L6 International trade (2)解释1. Tariff2. Quota3. Customs area4. Customs union5. Import duties6. Export duties7. Ad valorem duty8. Specific duty9. Compound duties10. Drawback11. Most-favored-nation(MFN)12. Tariff schedule13. Nontariff barrier14. Visible trade15. Invisible trade商务知识1. Other bases for trade among countries(1) patterns of demand(2) Economy of scale(3) Innovation or style2. The reasons why complete specialization may never occur3. Tariff barrier -the most common form of trade restriction(1)export duty(2)Import dutyA. Specific dutyB. Ad valorem dutyC. Compound duty4. Quotas --the most common form of non-tariff barriers问题1. Are there other bases for trade when there are no differences among countries in production conditions?2. Mention some of the bases3. What is economy of scale?4. What is the relation between economy of scale and trade?5. What does the theory of international specialization seek to answer?6. Will complete specialization occur in the reality?why?7. What is tariff barriers?8. What is a customs area and what is a customs union?9. What is most favoured nation treatment? Is it a very special treatment?why?10. What is the most common form of non-tariff barriers?explain it in a few words11. What are the differences between visible trade and invisible trade?give a few examples of invisible trade.12. Explain briefly the different kinds of tarriffs.L7 incoterms 2000解释1.deal2.Trade terms3.Trading practices4.Negotiable5.EDI6.Customs clearance7.Dispatch8. ICC9.Roll on-roll off10.Incoterms11.Negotiable transport document12.FOB13.CFR14.CIF15.EXW16.FCA17.FAS18.CPT19.CIP20.DAF21.DES22.DEQ23.DDU24.DDP商务知识1. The necessity and purpose of having incoterms2. The reasons for the 2000 revision of incotermsA. Spread of customs -free zonesB. Changes in transportation practicesC. Increased use of electronic communication3. The 4 groups of incotermsA. GROUP EB. GROUP FC. GROUP CD. GROUP D4. The 3 most commonly used termsA. FOBB. CFRC. CIF问题1. What sort of risks can arise when goods are being moved from one place to another?2. If risks do occur, what consequences would they bring about?3. Why is it necessary to have incoterms?4. And what is the purpose of making amendments and additions to incoterms?5. Do you know anything about container transport?6. Is it a revolutionary innovation in transportation techniques? Give your reasons7. Explain the word "negotiable " in the phrase "negotiable transport document"8. What are the main characteristic of incoterms 1990?9. What are the 4 different categories of terms in incoterms 2000?10. How do you understand the 1st sentence of paragraph 6? Try to put it into Chinese and then paragraph it in English11. Why should the compilers of incoterms 2000 take the trouble to set forth in detail the division of duties ,taxes,costs and charges etc. Of both sellers and buyers , as some of them are irrelevant to either the seller or the buyer?12. Explain FOB,CFR,CIF13. In what areas are substantive changes made with incoterms 2000?L8 business contract解释1. Inquiry2. Quotation3. Validity period4. Offer5. Counter offer6. Offeree7. Sales (purchase ) contract8. Sales (purchase) confirmation9. Consignment10. Contracting parties11. Force majeure12. Arbitration13. Business line14. Contract proper15. Article number商务知识1. The definition of the contract2. 2 types of business negotiation : oral and written3. Process of negotiation and conclusion of the contracta. Inquiryb. Quotationc. Offer and acceptanced. Counter-offer4. The necessity of the written contract5. The types of contractsa. Sales and contractb. Purchase contractc. Sales or purchase confirmation6. The setting of a contract1) The title2) The contract propera. The name and address of the buyer and the sellerb. The details of the commodity transactionc. The terms and conditions mutually agreedd. Indication of the number of original copies , languages used and the validity3) the signatures of the contracting parties问题1. What is a contract?2. What may happen if a contracting party fails to fulfill his obligation?3. Mention the 2 types of business negotiations, and give examples of each4. Is an inquiry binding on the inquirer?5. What is a 1st inquiry ,and what information should be given in it？6. What is a firm offer ?7. What contents should be included in a firm offer?8. Is a counter offer an acceptance or a refusal of the original offer ?9. What happens to the offer once a counter offer is made?10. Is a written contract a must internationally for the conclusion of a transaction ?11. What is the case in china?12. What are the function of a written contract?13. What is the difference between a sales contract and a purchase contract, and between a contract and a confirmation?14. Give the major items of the contract proper15. Are the stipulations on the back of the contract its constituent parts?16. Are they binding on the contracting parties?L9 Modes of trade解释1.counter trade2.Hyperinflation3.Reichsbank4.Cross-border contract5.Protectionism6.Financial market7.Clearing system positionspensation trade10.Trade credit accounts11.Barter12.Counter purchase13.Buyback14.Vertical15.Centrally planned economiespetitive devaluation17.Volkswagen18.Xerox corporation19.Processing trade20.Consignment21.Leasing trade22.Auction23.Agency商务知识1. Origin and development of counter trade2. Current counter trade(1)barter(2)Counter purchase(3)Buyback(4)Features common to the 3 forms of counter trade3. Major advantages of counter trade(1)helping to deal with foreign exchange shortage(2)Promoting export(3)Reducing uncertainty regarding export receipts(4)Bypassing international price agreement(5)Helping countries with debt problems to import goods4. The drawbacks of counter trade问题1. What is counter trade ?2. Why has it attracted so much attention?3. How did counter trade originate ?4. And what was the nature of early counter trade?5. Why should britain use bilateral clearing arrangements after WWII?6. What are the main features of the current counter trade ?7. Can you summarize the categories briefly under current counter trade ?8. What are the major differences between counter purchase and buyback?9. What is meant by bundling ?10. What is the opposite way of doing business?11. Since bundling is not an efficient way of getting business done, why should a significant part of the international trade of goods as well as services still be bundled?12. What are the advantages and disadvantages of counter trade?13. What are the basic conditions for counter trade to exist ?14. What are the other modes of trade mentioned in the text?L10 International payment解释1. Debtor2. Debit3. Financial standing4. Credit worthiness5. Periodic payments6. Cash in advance7. Open account8. Draft (bill of exchange )9. Drawer10. Drawee11. Payee12. Usance draft(tenor draft ,term draft )13. Documentary draft14. Clean draft15. Documentary collection16. Documents against payment (D/P)17. Documents against acceptance (D/A)商务知识1. The complexity of payment in international trade(1) risks faced by the exporter and the importer(2) Political factors ,commercial factors, geographical factors, etc.2. 2 methods of payment use under certain conditions(1) cash in advance or partial cash in advance(2) Open account3. The draft(bill of exchange)(1)definition(2)Sight draft and usance draft(tenor draft or tern draft)(3)Clean draft and documentary draft4. Documentary collection(1)documents against payment(D/P)a.D/P at sightb.D/P after sight(2)documents against acceptance (D/A)问题1. Why is it difficult to effect payment in a straight forward manner in international trade?2. Mention some of the risks the exporter and the importer may face in trade3. Explain briefly the following methods of payment: cash in advanced ,open account ,consignment transactions4. What is a draft? does it have another name? What are the relevant parties in relation to a draft?5. What is the difference between a sight draft and a usance draft and what is the different a clean draft and a documentary draft?6. What is documents against payment ?7. What are D/P at sight and d/p sight ?8. Which is more favourable for the exporter?9. When does the importer get the shipping documents in the case of d/p after sight?10. What is the difference between D/A and D/P after sight?which is safer for the exporter?11. Is payment by collection very common in international trade? Mention some cases when collections is used.L9 modes of trade 解释商务知识问题。
21central_预测与决策 part 1 - Background and Perspective
Decision Making
刘钢 lglhm@
Forecasting & Decision Making
From Now to Future From Know to Unknow
Background and Perspective
MAIN CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION
1/1 Needs and Uses of Forecasting 1/2 Current Status of Forecasting Techniques 1/3 The Future of Forecasting
1/1 Needs and Uses of Forecasting
Two important comments must be kept in forecasting:
The first is that successful forecasting is not always directly useful to managers and others .
A second important point is the distinction between uncontrollable external and controllable internal events. The success of a company depends on both types of events,but forecasting applies directly to the former ,while decision making applies directly to the latter. Planning is the link that integrates them.
2020年1月23日雅思阅读答案解析
2020年1月23日雅思阅读答案解析or high-voltage power grids; no pasteurisation,pesticides or biotechnology; no quantum mechanics; no wheel; no "discovery” of America. In short,their message was： no risk，no gain.C Theyhave absolutely missed the point. The precautionary principle is a subtle idea.It has various forms, but all of them generally include some notion ofcost-effectiveness. Thus the point is not simply to ban things that are notknown to be absolutely safe. Rather, it says：’’Of course you can make noprogress without risk. But if there is no obvious gain from taking the risk,then don’t take it.”D Clearly, all the technologies listed by the 40well-chosen savants were innately risky at their inception, as all technologiesarc. But all of them would have received thegreen light under theprecautionary principle because they all had the potential to offer tremendousbenefits-- the solutions to very big problems-- if only the snags could beovercome.E If theprecautionary principle had been in place，the scientists tell us, we would not haveantibiotics. But of course we would - if the version of the principlethatsensible people now understand had been applied. When penicillin was discoveredin the 1920s, infective bacteriawere laying waste to the world. Children diedfrom diphtheria and whooping cough，every open drain brought the threat of typhoid,and any wound could lead to septicaemia and even gangrene.F Penicillin was turned into a practical drugduring the Second World War, when the many pestilences that result from warthreatened to kill more people than the bombs. Of course antibiotics were apriority. Of course the risks, such as they could be perceived, were worthtaking.G And so with the other items on the scientists'list：electric light bulbs, blood transfusions, CAT scans, knives, the measlesvaccine —the precautionary principle would have prevented all of them, theytell us. But this is just plain wrong. If the precautionary principle had beenapplied properly, all these creations would have passed muster, because alloffered incomparable advantages compared to the risks perceived at the time.H Another issue is at stake here. Statistics arenot the only concept people use when weighing up risk. Human beings, subtle andevolved creatures that we are, do not survive to three-score years and tensimply by thinking like pocket calculators. A crucial issue is consumer’schoice. Indeciding whether to pursue the development of a new technology, theconsumer's right to choose should beconsidered alongside considerations ofrisk and benefit. Clearly, skiing is more dangerous than genetically modifiedtomatoes. But people who ski choose to do so; they do not have skiing thrustupon them by portentous experts of the kind who now feel they have the right toreconstruct our crops. Even with skiing there is the matter of costeffectiveness to consider： skiing, I am told, is exhilarating. Where is theexhilaration in GM soya?I Indeed, incontrast to all the other items on Spiked's list, GM crops stand out as anexample of。
TPO35 Reading passage 2答案解析
TPO35 Reading KeysPassage 2Population Growth in Nineteenth-Century EuropeParagraph 1Because of industrialization, but also because of a vast increase in agricultural output without which industrialization would have been impossible, Western Europeans by the latter half of the nineteenth century enjoyed higher standards of living and longer, healthier lives than most of the world’s peoples. In Europe as a whole, the population rose from 188 million in 1800 to 400 million in 1900. By 1900, virtually every area of Europe had contributed to the tremendous surge of population, but each major region was at a different stage of demographic change. Paragraph 2Improvements in the food supply continued trends that had started in the late seventeenth century. New lands were put under cultivation, while the use of crops of American origin, particularly the potato, continued to expand. Setbacks did occur. Regional agricultural failures were the most common cause of economic recessions until 1850, and they could lead to localized famine as well. A major potato blight (disease) in 1846-1847 led to the deaths of at least one million persons in Ireland and the emigration of another million, and Ireland never recovered the population levels the potato had sustained to that point. Bad grain harvests at the same time led to increased hardship throughout much of Europe.Paragraph 3After 1850, however, the expansion of foods more regularly kept pace with population growth, though the poorer classes remained malnourished. Two developments were crucial. First, the application of science and new technology to agriculture increased. Led by German universities, increasing research was devoted to improving seeds, developing chemical fertilizers, and advancing livestock. After 1861, with the development of land-grant universities in the United States that had huge agricultural programs, American crop-production research added to this mix. Mechanization included the use of horse-drawn harvesters and seed drills, many developed initially in the United States. It also included mechanical cream separators and other food-processing devices that improved supply.Q15 The phrase kept pace with in the passage is closest in meaning toA.exceededB.matched the increase inC.increased the rate ofD.caused正确答案: B解析：回到原文“After 1850, however, the expansion of foods more regularly kept pace with population growth, though the poorer classes remained malnourished”，这句话主句和从句是转折的关系，从句中的意思是“穷苦阶级在营养方面仍然跟不上”，所以转折之前主句中的意思应该是食品的数量是跟得上人口数量增长的。