亚洲金融危机英文版
国际金融英文版(全)
Short-and Medium-term Debt Markets
Euro-commercial paper (ECP)and Euro-medium-term
notes(EMTN) Floating rate Euro-notes(Floating rate notes(FRN)represent an early innovation in the eurobond market.Interest is usually paid semiannually and they trade at a spread of the reference rate,e.g.,LIBOR.Margin above LIBOR may amount to 25-100 basis points or more.After 6 months ,the rate is reset with the same margin. International REPO market(repurchase agreement ,or REPOS)
Non-bank
Public international financial institutions public global financial institutions regional public national public Private international financial institutions global private regional private national private
the balance of payment
3.the theories of foreign exchange rate determination 4.foreign exchange exposure
重点总结的经济学人-中英文版)
Finance and EconomicsOffshore private banking离岸私人银行业Bourne to survive伯恩的幸存Aug 6th 2009From The Economist print editionDespite the woes of UBS, Swiss private banking remains in reasonable shape尽管瑞银处境不佳，瑞士的私人银行业仍保有相当规模Illustration by S. KambayashiA FTER visiting his bank in Zurich, Jason Bourne, an amnesic assassin, wonders: “Who has a safety-deposit box full of money and six passports and a gun?” In the popular imagination as well as Hollywood films the answer is clear: customers of Swiss banks do.当失忆的杀手詹森•伯恩(Jason Bourne)从其位于苏黎世的银行走出后，自问到：”什么样的人会有一个装满了钱、6本护照还有一把枪的银行保险箱？”在大众的想像与好莱坞的电影中，这个答案是明确的：瑞士银行的客户就是这样的人。
If this reputation for skulduggery is right, Switzerland, home to about one-quarter of the world’s offshore money, is in big trouble. After nearly going bust, UBS, its biggest bank, is now being pistol-whipped by America’s Internal Revenue Service (IRS), which wants it to hand over the names of tens of thousands of alleged tax dodgers. A preliminary settlement between the two was agreed on July 31st, although its details have yet to be made public. In March Switzerland agreed to comply with an OECD tax code that will oblige it to reveal information on clients that other governments say they need to enforce their laws. Where will crooks, despots and war criminals go now? And what will Swiss private banks do when they leave?如果这种隐秘而无原则的名声不是空穴来风的话，瑞士，这个坐拥世界四分之一离岸资金的国家将会有大麻烦。
亚洲英语怎么写
亚洲英语怎么写亚洲(曾译作“亚细亚洲”和“亚西亚洲”，是七大洲中面积最大，人口最多的一个洲。
那么，你知道亚洲的英语怎么写吗?亚洲的英文释义：AsiaAsianOrient亚洲的英文例句：在某些亚洲的国家，进屋子之前脱下鞋子才是有礼貌的。
Before entering a house in some Asian countries, it is good manners to take off your shoes.有多少亚洲国家参加这次运动会?How many Asian countries have taken part in the sport meeting?这家公司已开始减少在亚洲的业务。
The company has begun to scale down its operations in Asia.中国是亚洲的发展中国家。
China is a developing country in Asia.这个国家曾是英国在亚洲的殖民地。
This country used to be a British colony in Asia.他们思念着在亚洲的故乡。
They were pining for their homeland in Asia.这导致了地下水水位下降，河流干涸。
报告号召人们认识到在这些水资源稀缺的地区，特别是在亚洲和北非，没有更多“新的”水资源了。
This causes groundwater levels to decline and rivers to dry up.其他的“亚洲之星”紧握机遇来发展。
Other stars seized the moment to modernize.这是一种用非同寻常的方法制成的咖啡鲁瓦克是亚洲小型麝香猫。
This is a coffee made from a very unusual process.欧洲列强在亚洲扩大他们的管辖权。
亚洲金融风暴【英文】 Asian crisis
1990-1995 (average) 0.9 3.3 -1.2 12.7 4.0 -2.5 -5.9 -3.8 -6.7
Source: Institute of International Finance, Inc., “Capital Flows to Emerging Economies,” January 1998.
Reasons for the Currency Crisis
Decline in Export Earnings Excessive and Risky Investment Current Account Deficit Overvalued Currency Underdevelopment of credit market Property market bubble
Change in FX rates (6/30/1998)
FX:1 $US 6/30/98
Chinese yuan HK dollar Indonesia rupiah Japanese yen Malaysian ringgit Korean won Philippine peso Thai baht 8.281 7.745 14568.89 138.31 4.1 1370 41.5 42.16
Excessive and Risky Investment
Incremental Capital-Output (ICOR) Ratios Country 1987-1992 1993-1996 China 3.1 2.9 Hong Kong 3.7 6.1 Indonesia 3.8 4.9 Korea 4.0 4.9 Malaysia 3.7 4.8 Philippines 6.0 5.5 Singapore 3.6 4.0 Taiwan 2.4 3.9 Thailand 3.4 5.1
2008年美国 金融危机 英文版
2008年美国金融危机英文版(in English)美国作为世界上第一大经济体，对世界经济的发展具有火车头的作用。
然而2007年美国经济的表现不尽人意，次贷危机的爆发更是雪上加霜。
经济增长速度降低，通货膨胀率升高，失业率增加，这一切显示出美国经济已经离滞胀越来越近了。
美联储前主席格林斯潘称“美国经济尚未陷入滞胀，但已经有早期迹象出现”。
2008 financial crisis (in English)The United States as the world's largest economies, the world's locomotive of economic development. However, in 2007 less than satisfactory performance of the U.S. economy, sub-loan crisis broke out, more difficult. To reduce the rate of economic growth, rising inflation, the rise in unemployment, all show the U.S. economy has been growing from the stagnation of the past. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said "stagflation in the U.S. economy has not yet, but already there are early signs appear."次贷危机是美国经济放缓的导火索，其后续影响不断恶化并逐渐波及到世界经济。
2007年世界经济在连续四年的高速增长之后，出现了调整的迹象。
同时，美国、欧元区和广大发展中国家的CPI上涨率已超过央行设定的控制目标。
2015年对外经济贸易大学翻译硕士MTI考研真题解析
2015年对外经济贸易大学翻译硕士MTI考研真题解析各位2016年考研的小伙伴们，欢迎大家来到才思教育，今天给大家着重的分析一下关于对外经济贸易大学翻译硕士MTI考研的相关内容。
百科知识学生处students' affairs division学生减负alleviate the burden on students学时credit hours学术报告academic report学术讲座academic forum学术评价体系academic appraisal system (Shao Hong, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top political advisory body, also called for the establishment of an academic appraisal system with less emphasis on quantity of academic papers and awards. 全国政协委员邵鸿还建议建立一个不过分注重学术论文和获奖数量的学术评价体系。
)学术造假academic cheating (Nearly half of the science-related workers in China's research institutes, universities, medical institutes and hospitals think academic cheating is "common," a survey by the China Association for Science and Technology (CAST) showed. 中国科学技术协会（CAST）开展的一项调查显示，在中国，包括研究机构、高校、医学研究机构和医院的工作人员在内的近半数科研工作者认为学术造假“非常普遍”。
英文论文关于金融危机对房地产的影响的论文英文版完美版
ChapterⅠ Introduction1.1 Brief Introduction of the Financial CrisisThe sub-loan crisis is also called as the subprime mortgage crisis and translated as the subprime lending crisis. It refers to a financial storm that occurred in the United States due to the bankruptcy of the sub-mortgage agencies, the forced closing of the investment funds, and the severe turbulence of the stock market. It led to the crisis in lack of liquidity at the world's major financial markets. The U.S. "Sub-Loan Crisis" began to emerge from the spring of 2006. From August of 2007, it started to sweep through the United States, the European Union, Japan, and other major financial markets in the world.Sub-loan means "subprime mortgage loan". “Sub” means the poor side corresponding to “high” and “excellent”, while in the "sub-loan crisis" it refers to the low credit and low debt-repaying capacity.Subprime mortgage loan is a high-risk and high-yield industry, which refers to the loans offered by a number of lending institutions to the borrowers with poor credit and low income. Comparing to the traditional standard mortgage loans, the subprime mortgage loans demand low levels on the borrowers’ credit history and repaying ability, but its corresponding lending rate is much higher than the normal mortgage loans. Those who are refused on high-grade mortgage loans by the bank for their bad credit history or weak repaying ability may apply for the subprime mortgage loans to buy houses.When the house price is going up, the subprime mortgage loans business is booming. Even if the borrower’s cash flow can not repay the loan, they may obtain re-loans from the value-added real estate to fill the gap. However, when the house price maintains or goes down, there will be a funding gap and then the bad debts.The subprime mortgage loan is a kind of housing mortgages abroad, to supply loans to the people with less income or lower-level credit history. The reason for supplying loans to these people is that the lending institutions can receive a mortgage interesthigher than the good credit mortgage. When the house prices rise, the loans will have no problems as a result of adequate value in pledge; but when the house prices fall, value in pledge is no longer sufficient, while the mortgager has less income, thus the loan contract may be breached and the house may be returned to the bank. It will cause the increase in the bad debts of the mortgager, the collapsed cases of the mortgage providers and the risks in the financial markets.1.2 Importance of Real Estate Industry on Beijing's GDP(Proportion)The added value of real estate industry accounts for more than 5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in our country. As a pillar industry, it has played an important role in the national economy.Yu Xiuqin, the spokeswoman of Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics said on October 14, 2004, that Beijing’s GDP in the first quarter increased 13% over the same period of the previous year. The released Real Estate Investment Report by the Fixed Assets Investment Division of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission on October 15 indicated that the investment growth rate in the first three quarters reduced to 20.3% from 40.6% in the first quarter, "ranking in a more reasonable range." But the Report also pointed out that the great dropping in the real estate investment "leading indicators (land development, etc.)” undoubtedly affected the potential growth of investment in real estate. The delayed impact from macro-control measures shall be paid attentions to." This Report obviously reminded that the development and investment in real estate may maintain the downward trend due to the impact of macro-control, and it may further have a certain impact on Beijing’s economic growth.What impact can macro-control br ing on Beijing’s GDP? Ding Xiangyang, Director of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission, said when he reported to Beijing People's Congress Standing Committee on the implementation of nationaleconomic and social development plan during the first half year, that a series of land policies in Beijing such as the moratorium on agricultural land requisition, the ceasing of agreed land transfer, and the clean-up of investment projects in development zones, as well as the macro-control, had probably effected an investment of about RMB 120 billion yuan, with about 2-3 percentage points on affecting the annual economic growth in the next few years. The Report of the Fixed Assets Investment Division finally showed that from the investment in recent years, the proportion of real estate investment had always been maintained at above 55%, which did not match the direction of industrial restructuring on developing high-tech industries and modern manufacturing sectors. In order to maintain the consecutive and stable economic growth of the city and optimize the industrial structure, it is necessary to intensify the investment structure adjustment and increase the proportion of industrial investment, especially under the circumstances that the potentials in the real estate industry are affected."We can see such a logic relationship: the real estate investment maintains a high proportion in recent years, while the macro-control reduces the real estate investment growth rate, which will annually decrease several p ercentage points of Beijing’s GDP in the next few years. Real estate has an extraordinary impact on Beijing's economy. The proportion of real estate investment is too large? According to the planning of National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing City has cleaned up the fixed assets projects in the city. From the information of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission, there are more than 6000 projects being cleaned up, in which more than 600 projects involved in violations. Among them, there are 53 projects being stopped the construction or cancelled and 554 projects being suspended the construction for rectification, with a total investment amount of RMB 164 billion yuan, accounting for 1/5 of the total number in our country. From the project clean-up situation, there is still more than 50% of investment concentrated in the real estate field among all the city's investment projects being constructed or planned for construction. Figures show that the real estate investment in Beijingaccounts for 56.5% of the total investment in the entire society, far exceeding the national average level of 18%. The Report of the Fixed Assets Investment Division of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission suggests that the proportion of real estate investment is too large, "and this does not match the direction of industrial restructuring on developing high-tech industries and modern manufacturing sectors."However, Ren Zhiqiang, President of Huayuan Group who researches much on the economic indexes said, "Beijing originally has a lot of lands for use, but the Capital has not implemented constructions for a long time, and now the construction develops after conquering great difficulties, a higher proportion of real estate investment is normal." Professor Y e Jianping, Head of the Land Management Division of Renmin University of China, considered that demands for housing and the supply in Beijing in recent years had promoted the proportion growth of investment, although this proportion of 56.5% was much higher than the international average level. However, it is very difficult to evaluate whether it is right or not at special stages in a specific period." Nevertheless, there must be problems if such proportion maintains in a long period." Someone in the Fixed Assets Investment Division of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission said that a higher proportion in real estate investment has certain rationality at the present stage on accelerating urban transformation, urbanization and economic growth. And now all aspects of the real estate industry are still within the safety line in general. A large number of bubble phenomenon such as housing vacancy or price skyrocketing have not occurred. But he also pointed out at the same time that it was very easy to emerge bubbles as the real estate industry was greatly affected by the policy. Therefore Beijing, as a large-sized city, if the proportion of real estate investment is too large, the city’s whole economy will accordingly become more vulnerable.Who is the largest contributor to GDP? The official data from Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission show that the direct pulling role of real estate on Beijing’s GDP is between 5% and 10%. Experts believe that the direct contributionof the real estate industry to GDP completely results from the demand growth in the real estate market. It is reported that the volume of demolition in Beijing reduces at the annual rate of 20% for 5 consecutive years. There were about 100,000 removing households in Beijing 5 years ago, but in 2004 there were only 20,000. In the past a considerable portion of the demand in Beijing real estate market consists of urban renewal, infrastructure construction as well as a large number of demolitions invested by the government. Now although the government demolitions decline a lot, the consumption amount has not reduced, thus the real estate market remains a strong demand. "With this demand, the relatively high proportion of real estate in GDP is quite normal, because Beijing's real estate is not for Beijing City only, but for the whole country and even the world."In addition to the pulling role of the strong demands in real estate market on Beijing’s GDP, it is well known that the real estate industry drives its upstream and downstream industries. Someone in Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission disclosed: "According to the sales estimation, the proportion of real estate and the relevant industries such as its driven raw materials and service industry is about 1:1.2." "Real estate investment can drive a dozen of or a hundred of related industries." Ren Zhiqiang had his personal experience. He considered that from an investment view, the real estate industry could stimulate many affiliated industries, thus it had a great impact on the whole GDP. But he also said that the current method of calculating GDP was on the basis of the net investment amount, excluding the consumption, whereas the related consumption of real estate such as second-hand housing transaction was a very important part of the real estate industry. Therefore he thought that the statistical methods on GDP was not entirely correct, which could not calculate accurately the specific contribution value of the real estate industry. What he implicated was that: the present statistics were incomplete, and the polling function of the real estate industry on GDP had been underestimated.Macro-control on the balance beam: more than one expert warned that the long-term development of a city could not rely on continuous investment though real estateplayed an important role in driving the fixed assets investment and GDP. It should develop more industries. Only the driving industries can bring sustainable development, no matter what it is the first, second or third industry. Someone in the Investment Division of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission introduced that for the adjustment of investment structure, the Municipal Development and Reform Commission at present had established a long-term guideline aiming at reducing the proportion of real estate in the fixed assets investment in Beijing: to change the structure with so large real estate investment at present by increasing the investment on other industries and fields, rather than limiting the current real estate projects, in order to increase the growth points of the city and avoid large effects on the whole economy resulted from the changing real estate industry. At the same time, we shall strengthen market monitoring and analysis, guide the restructuring of real estate products, focus on developing the mid-priced residential houses, and expand the size of second-hand housing market etc. "But the government has the responsibility to control the real estate for avoiding major fluctuations." The staff in the Investment Division of the Development and Reform Commission said that people in the real estate industry were more psychologically vulnerable to the effects of the outside world. Therefore the misconduct may result in insufficient investment in real estate, declining engineering volume, effecting the development of the relevant service and raw material industries, and finally directly or indirectly affecting the entire GDP growth." So the real estate investment, no matter it is up or down, should be a smooth process. It shall follow the principle of ensuring a smooth and stable development in real estate, to prevent the sharp ups and downs." The information on our country’s real estate and construction of 2007 shows that there are 63,000 real estate development enterprises in 2007, with a total employment of 1,720,000 people; the completed investment on real estate development is RMB 2.5289 trillion yuan, with an increase rate of 30. 2%.Statistics show that the asset-liability ratio of China's real estate development enterprise in 2007 was 74.4%; the real estate development enterprises realized a totalprofit of RMB 290 billion yuan, with an increase rate of 48.4%.The released information also shows that China's real estate industry in 2007 still has problems such as irrational housing supply structure, high housing prices and so on. Statistics show that in 2007 the affordable housing investment accounts for 4.6% in the commercial residential investment, reducing 0.5 percentage points; residential housing under 90 square meters only accounts for 23.3% in the commercial residential housing; the real estate sales areas reduced a lot at the end of the year.ChapterⅡ Financial CrisisThe real estate industry is the leading industry of China's national economy, which ranks a decisive position in the modern social and economic life. After more than ten years of development, China's real estate industry is in the transition period towards to a large-scaled, branding and standardized operation. The growth means of the real estate industry is changing the focus on from speed and scale to benefit and market segmentation, and the relied aspects from the government’s policy c ontrol to market regulation and corporate self-regulation. In the first half of 2006, the rigid housing demand in Beijing released a lot, and the supply in the commercial forward delivery housing market turned on a recovering trend. There were four features showed in Beijing’s real estate market in 2006: the investment growth in real estate recovered and the residential investment increased a lot; new construction area increased fast, but the completion area of residential buildings reduced; the sales in the housing market boomed, but the vacant space lessened; the residential price index continued to increase, but at a stable rate.Beijing’s investment in real estate increases rapidly. From January to June in 2006, the completed investment in real estate development in Beijing was RMB 64.01 billion yuan, increasing 20.8% over the same period in the previous year, with an increased rate of 12.7 percentage points. From January to June in 2006, the completedland development area of the real estate development enterprises in Beijing reached 1,964,000 square meters, increasing 130% over the same period in the previous year; the vacancy space decreased for the flourishing market demand and supply reduction. At the end of June in 2006, the vacancy space of commercial housing in Beijing covered an area of 9,652,000 square meters, with 4,090,000 square meters less than that at the beginning of the year, with a decreasing rate of 29.8%. From January to June in 2006, the fund in place of Beijing’s real estate developmen t enterprises was RMB 126.52 billion yuan, increasing 20.3% over the same period in the previous year, in which the financial loans was RMB 33.95 billion yuan, increasing 40.1% over the same period in the previous year. It accounted for 26.8% of the fund in place that year, raising 3.8 percentage points.Since 2006, the housing sales price index in Beijing City showed a slight upward trend. From January to June in 2006, the total price index of newly-built commercial houses accumulated at 107.7%, increasing 0.6 percentage points than that of the previous month, and increasing 1 percentage point than that at the same period of the previous year; of which the residential price index accumulated at 108.5%, increasing 0.5 percentage points than that of the previous month, and increasing 1.3 percentage points than that at the same period of the previous year; the second-hand residential price index accumulated at 109.5%, almost the same as that of the previous month, and increasing 3 percentage points than that at the same period of the previous year. The price increasing rate of ordinary residential housing exceeded that of the high-grade residential houses. From January to June in 2006, the average residential price index in Beijing’s newly-built residential houses accumulated at 110%, exceeding 4.2 percentage points than that of the high-grade residential houses.The competition in Beijing’s real estate industry has become increasingly fierce and white-hot. As for the developers, Sunco’s entry into Beijing, the establishment of Beijing Capital Development Holding Group, together with the macro-control policy of the past two years, the rising interest rates, 8.31 Land Revolution (The agreed land transfer was prohibited since August 31, 2004), the introductions of the State’s 8Articles and 6 Measures on controlling the real estate market, the entry of overseas real estate funds, all of these made the competition war even more interesting. Accompanied by the clank of horns, the developers are making every effort to win in the real estate market. The agency industry has also begun the price war. In the future the industries will be fully integrated, which is a general trend.ChapterⅢ Overall Conditions of Beijing Real Estate after theFinancial CrisisComparing with the previous two years, Beijing’s real estate market in 2008 had much more challenges. The Olympic opportunity existed with the financial crisis and the real estate market advanced slowly in the year. In the first half of the year, the theory of the turning point in real estate market was very popular, "the concept of the Olympic Games" deeply rooted in people’s hearts did not bring about the active transactions in the real estate market. "Wait-and-see" has become the pronoun of the real estate market. In the second half after the Olympic Games, the real estate transactions had not fully warmed up, and the global financial crisis came. Thus the second-hand housing prices began to fall, and the government decreased the deposit and lending rates to stimulate the market consumption. The redemption and reform policies in the second-hand housing transaction taxes and fees came out, but they had no obvious effects on the one-year sluggish real estate market. In a word, the Olympic Games opportunity and the financial crisis existed together in 2008, and Beijing’s second-hand housing market was on the fence.In 2009, the global economy may appear the first negative growth after the Second World War. In addition, the economic recession, low inflation, the release of potential risks in the economic and financial fields and so on, reveal that the world’s economic recession and risk are amplifying step by step. In order to stabilize the financialmarkets and stimulate the economic growth, each country has introduced measures. However, the economic recovering signs in major economic unions are still rare. From the latest data of 2009, the economic recession of major developed economies is deepening, and the financial crisis is sweeping rapidly from the developed countries to the developing countries with a growing impact on the global real economy. Confronted with the changing economic situation and the unprecedented challenges brought about by the international financial crisis, China has begun a new round of macro-controls with unprecedented efforts. The implementation of an active fiscal policy and an appropriately loose monetary policy conveys a clear signal: the macro-controlling measures on expanding domestic demand, maintaining the growth and adjusting the structure will help China's economy come out of the woods and enter into the new stage of development. On September 15, 2008 the central bank announced that the lending rate was firstly down after 6 years. In November of 2008, ten measures to expand domestic demand were made out. The Central Economic Work Conference reaffirmed the goal of guaranteeing the growth. The revitalization policies on ten industries policy were intensely approved. Facing the crisis, China is taking a decisive and strong action.ChapterⅣ The Real Estate Industry in Beijing the FinancialCrisis4.1 The Impact on House Prices and Sales V olume4.1.1 People’s Living StandardsBeijing residents have a proximate RMB20, 000 average total incomes for household, specially speaking, it is RMB19, 533.3, which goes up 14.1% than the previous year. The working salaries are the major one in household income, and it has a RMB13,666.3 working salaries per capita.4.1.2 Macro-ControlHere comes on the "inviting, auction, and nominating" policy from government, all the land should be through the inviting public bidding, auction and nominal quotation before joining the market in the "831 the end".1). 2004 in land policy, there are two forms of constructional land, one is allocation, and the other is making agreement to sell.From August 31st, 2004, all the operational land must be sold by public auction. In other words, before in August 31st, 2004, every provinces, regions and municipalities are banned to use the historical legacy issues to sell the usufruct of the national land in the agreement way, protocol selling the land is prevailing once, but it was prohibited by the government. The document also stipulates that after 31 August, 2004, developers are required to pay the land transfer payments in time, and if the lands are not developed within two years, the government will withdraw it. “8.31" is also treated by the public opinion in China as "the real estate sector of the agrarian revolution" and "Sunshine of Lands".2).Financial policy: the People's Bank put into practice the purposes of including raising deposit and loan rates, increasing the statutory reserve rate as well as other industry-specific credit policy and other means to tighten the flexibility of the market, and also reducing the monetary supply thereby curbing inflation so as to achieve the purpose of tightening monetary policy.3). Sales policy: the pre-sale system is practicableThe overall circumstances of macro-manipulation:<1>.The circumstance is squeezing at the two ends: the standards of land and thepurchase of houses are undergoing the compression, for example, less than 70 percent houses are constructed under 90 m2 according to the requirements.<2>. Middle-squeeze: For example, tightening monetary policy.4.1.3 Developers:The prices of commercial houses are formed by land, construction and raw materials. After 2007, it costs RMB10, 000 to buy 1m2 of lands, which give rise to4.2 The Effect of Financial Crisis to Consumers, Policies and Developers:4.2.1 Consumers:The restriction of people who purchase the economically affordable houses. The listed trades, however, have a limit of the autonomy of more than five years, in the past, the original real estate is treated as an investment, but now it can be only used as personal residences.4.2.2 The Current Policy (After the Financial Crisis)1).Land policy: reducing the land supply, majority of them are policy-based houses (both affordable housing and limited room)2).Financial policy: which is used to control the loan. Facing the outbreak of the serious financial crisis, the financial sectors should try their best to reduce the risk and preserve their original property.3). Sales policies: which is aimed at the developers, they are not allowed to sale inadvance. After 2008, if meeting the demand of the national pre-sale conditions, which is, obtaining the evidence of the land, land permits, planning permits and construction permits are qualify to apply for the pre-sale permit.Secondly, restrictions on second-hand housing market are indispensible, such as, people should own the affordable housing more than five years before they can conduct transactions, which controls of the market, the phenomenon of real estate speculation and building speculation, and thus prices will decline.4.2.3 Aiming for Developers:After the outbreak of the financial crisis, great changes have taken place in consumers’ mind, they unconsciously develop a minds et of waiting to buy with cash in hand, developers are also holding a breath and waiting for the rise of the prices by rare sale, because if the original land cannot be sold, it will certainly have the impact on the return of funds, thereby they are unable to develop new properties, which results in a vicious circle. That is, the originally land bought from the market with a price will not be able to develop, which caused cash flow difficulties. Since October, with the financial crisis becomes increasingly intense, the consumers have more seriously wait-and-see attitude to the real estate market, meanwhile, the government, however, lowers the loan interest rate twice, moreover, it simultaneously issued a policy about the reform of taxation expenses of second-hand houses, which, to some extents, stimulates the recovery of property market.ChapterⅤ Conclusion5.1 Consequences and T endencyThere are three years that Beijing housing sale market has been undergoing declining. Nevertheless, thanks to the consecutive reduction of the interest for five times last second half year and a series of provoking house-purchase policies from government, the growth of the first-quarter appears this year.In 2008, the Wall Street crisis in the United States was not only quickly spread to the global financial markets, but also extended from the virtual economy to the real economy. What is worse, the unprecedented financial crisis was most likely to expand into the American dollar crisis and the economic recession, the worst pa rt is that the risks, which the global economy may get caught into a severe recession, are skyrocketing day by day. With the huge effect of the American Financial Crisis, on the one hand, the global financial markets were fiercely shaken, one the other hand, the primary stocks were overwhelmed in a vast scale, fear and a crisis of confidence over the whole market. Although the United States carried out a large-scale rescue package, it might still failed to prevent the slump the global stock markets. Under the U.S. financial crisis, the world's major financial institutions have experienced several consecutive quarters of declining profits and growing for asset write-downs and credit losses. More seriously, the current major economies decline in extremely high speed, signing the obvious economic recession over the world.Because of the effects of the global financial crisis, Chinese economy was decelerating the growth rate. Besides, there are still some factors, such as increasing cost and decreasing profit etc., have already have impact on the investment willingness and ability of some enterprises, thus restrict the rising consuming. As far as now, some essential Chinese industries are running down, just like steel, electric power, vehicle industries. In order to resist the adverse effect of international。
Financial crisis of 2007-2009金融危机 金融风暴 英文介绍
Financial crisis of 2007–2009From Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaThis article is about background financial market events dating from July 2007. For the financial market conditions of 2008 and 2009, see Global financial crisis of 2008–2009. For an overview of all economic problems during the late 2000s, see Late 2000s recession.The financial crisis of 2007–2009 has been called the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression by leading economists,[1] with its global effects characterized by the failure of key businesses, declines in consumer wealth estimated in the trillions of U.S. dollars, substantial financial commitments incurred by governments, and a significant decline in economic activity.[2] Many causes have been proposed, with varying weight assigned by experts.[3] Both market-based and regulatory solutions have been implemented or are under consideration,[4] while significant risks remain for the world economy.[5] [edit] BackgroundThe immediate cause or trigger of the crisis was the bursting of the United States housing bubble which peaked in approximately 2005–2006.[6][7] High default rates on "subprime" and adjustable rate mortgages (ARM), began to increase quickly thereafter. An increase in loan incentives such as easy initial terms and a long-term trend of rising housing prices had encouraged borrowers to assume difficult mortgages in the belief they would be able to quickly refinance at more favorable terms. However, once interest rates began to rise and housing prices started to drop moderately in 2006–2007 in many parts of the U.S., refinancing became more difficult. Defaults and foreclosure activity increased dramatically as easy initial terms expired, home prices failed to go up as anticipated, and ARM interest rates reset higher.Share in GDP of U.S. financial sector since 1860.[8]In the years leading up to the start of the crisis in 2007, significant amounts of foreign money flowed into the U.S. from fast-growing economies in Asia and oil-producing countries. This inflow of funds made it easier for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates in the United States too low (by the Taylor rule) from 2002–2006 which contributed to easy credit conditions, leading to the United States housing bubble. Loans of various types (e.g., mortgage, credit card, and auto) were easy to obtain and consumers assumed an unprecedented debt load.[9][10] As part of the housing and credit booms, the amount of financial agreements called mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which derive their value from mortgage payments and housing prices, greatly increased. Such financial innovation enabled institutions and investors around the world to invest in the U.S. housing market. As housing prices declined, major global financialFrom 2000 to 2003, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target from 6.5% to 1.0%.[25] This was done to soften the effects of the collapse of the dot-com bubble and of the September 2001 terrorist attacks, and to combat the perceived risk of deflation.[26] The Fed then raised the Fed funds rate significantly between July 2004 and July 2006.[27] This contributed to an increase in 1-year and 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) rates, making ARM interest rate resets more expensive for homeowners.[28] This may have also contributed to the deflating of the housing bubble, as asset prices generally move inversely to interest rates and it became riskier to speculate in housing.[29][30]U.S. Current Account or Trade DeficitIn 2005, Ben Bernanke addressed the implications of the USA's high and rising current account (trade) deficit, resulting from USA imports exceeding its exports.[31] Between 1996 and 2004, the USA current account deficit increased by $650 billion, from 1.5% to 5.8% of GDP. Financing these deficits required the USA to borrow large sums from abroad, much of it from countries running trade surpluses, mainly the emerging economies in Asia and oil-exporting nations. The balance of payments identity requires that a country (such as the USA) running a current account deficit also have a capital account (investment) surplus of the same amount. Hence large and growing amounts of foreign funds (capital) flowed into the USA to finance its imports. This created demand for various types of financial assets, raising the prices of those assets while lowering interest rates. Foreign investors had these funds to lend, either because they had very high personal savings rates (as high as 40% in China), or because of high oil prices. Bernanke referred to this as a "saving glut."[32] A "flood" of funds (capital or liquidity) reached the USA financial markets. Foreign governments supplied funds by purchasing USA Treasury bonds and thus avoided much of the direct impact of the crisis. USA households, on the other hand, used funds borrowed from foreigners to finance consumption or to bid up the prices of housing and financial assets. Financial institutions invested foreign funds in mortgage-backed securities. USA housing and financial assets dramatically declined in value after the housing bubble burst.[33][34][edit] Sub-prime lendingU.S. Subprime lending expanded dramatically 2004-2006In addition to easy credit conditions, there is evidence that both government and competitive pressures contributed to an increase in the amount of subprime lending during the years preceding the crisis. Major∙As early as 1997, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan fought to keep the derivatives market unregulated.[citation needed] With the advice of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets,[62] the U.S. Congress and President allowed the self-regulation of the over-the-counter derivatives market when they enacted the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000. Derivatives such as credit default swaps (CDS) can be used to hedge or speculate against particular credit risks. The volume of CDS outstanding increased 100-fold from 1998 to 2008, with estimates of the debt covered by CDS contracts, as of November 2008, ranging from US$33 to $47 trillion. Total over-the-counter (OTC) derivative notional value rose to $683 trillion by June 2008.[63]Warren Buffett famously referred to derivatives as "financial weapons of mass destruction" in early 2003.[64][65][edit] Increased debt burden or over-leveragingLeverage Ratios of Investment Banks Increased Significantly 2003-2007U.S. households and financial institutions became increasingly indebted or overleveraged during the years preceding the crisis. This increased their vulnerability to the collapse of the housing bubble and worsened the ensuing economic downturn. Key statistics include:∙USA household debt as a percentage of annual disposable personal income was 127% at the end of 2007, versus 77% in 1990.[66]∙U.S. home mortgage debt relative to gross domestic product (GDP) increased from an average of 46% during the 1990s to 73% during 2008, reaching $10.5 trillion.[67]∙In 1981, U.S. private debt was 123% of GDP; by the third quarter of 2008, it was 290%.[68]∙From 2004-07, the top five U.S. investment banks each significantly increased their financial leverage (see diagram), which increased their vulnerability to a financial shock. These five institutions reported over $4.1 trillion in debt for fiscal year 2007, about 30% of USA nominal GDP for 2007. Lehman Brothers was liquidated, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch were sold at fire-sale prices, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley became commercial banks, subjecting themselves to more stringent regulation. With the exception of Lehman, these companies required or received government support.[69]∙Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two U.S. Government sponsored enterprises, owned or guaranteed nearly $5 trillion in mortgage obligations at the time they were placed into conservatorship by the U.S. government in September 2008.[70][71]These seven entities were highly leveraged and had $9 trillion in debt or guarantee obligations, an enormous concentration of risk, yet were not subject to the same regulation as depository banks.[edit] Financial innovation and complexityA protester on Wall Street in the wake of the AIG bonus payments controversy is interviewed by news media.The term financial innovation refers to the ongoing development of financial products designed to achieve particular client objectives, such as offsetting a particular risk exposure (such as the default of a borrower) or to assist with obtaining financing. Examples pertinent to this crisis included: the adjustable-rate mortgage; the bundling of subprime mortgages into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) or collateralized debt obligations (CDO) for sale to investors, a type of securitization; and a form of credit insurance called credit default swaps(CDS). The usage of these products expanded dramatically in the years leading up to the crisis. These products vary in complexity and the ease with which they can be valued on the books of financial institutions.In a Peabody Award winning program, NPR correspondents argued that a "Giant Pool of Money" (represented by $70 trillion in worldwide fixed income investments) sought higher yields than those offered by U.S. Treasury bonds early in the decade. Further, this pool of money had roughly doubled in size from 2000 to 2007, yet the supply of relatively safe, income generating investments had not grown as fast. Investment banks on Wall Street answered this demand with the MBS and CDO, which were assigned safe ratings by the credit rating agencies. In effect, Wall Street connected this pool of money to the mortgage market in the U.S., with enormous fees accruing to those throughout the mortgage supply chain, from the mortgage broker selling the loans, to small banks that funded the brokers, to the giant investment banks behind them. By approximately 2003, the supply of mortgages originated at traditional lending standards had been exhausted. However, continued strong demand for MBS and CDO began to drive down lending standards, as long as mortgages could still be sold along the supply chain. Eventually, this speculative bubble proved unsustainable.[72]The CDO in particular enabled financial institutions to obtain investor funds to finance subprime and other lending, extending or increasing the housing bubble and generating large fees. A CDO essentially places cash payments from multiple mortgages or other debt obligations into a single pool, from which the cash is allocated to specific securities in a priority sequence. Those securities obtaining cash first received investment-grade ratings from rating agencies. Lower priority securities received cash thereafter, with lower credit ratings but theoretically a higher rate of return on the amount invested.[73][74]For a variety of reasons, market participants did not accurately measure the risk inherent with this innovation or understand its impact on the overall stability of the financial system.[75] For example, the pricing model for CDOs clearly did not reflect the level of risk they introduced into the system. The average recovery rate for "high quality" CDOs has been approximately 32 cents on the dollar, while the recovery rate for mezzanine CDO's has been approximately five cents for every dollar. These massive, practically unthinkable, losses have dramatically impacted the balance sheets of banks across the globe, leaving them with very little capital to continue operations.[76]Another example relates to AIG, which insured obligations of various financial institutions through the usage of credit default swaps. The basic CDS transaction involved AIG receiving a premium in exchangefor a promise to pay money to party A in the event party B defaulted. However, AIG did not have the financial strength to support its many CDS commitments as the crisis progressed and was taken over by the government in September 2008. U.S. taxpayers provided over $180 billion in government support to AIG during 2008 and early 2009, through which the money flowed to various counterparties to CDS transactions, including many large global financial institutions.[77][78]The limitations of a widely-used financial model also were not properly understood.[79][80] This formula assumed that the price of CDS was correlated with and could predict the correct price of mortgage backed securities. Because it was highly tractable, it rapidly came to be used by a huge percentage of CDO and CDS investors, issuers, and rating agencies.[80] According to one article[80]: "Then the model fell apart. Cracks started appearing early on, when financial markets began behaving in ways that users of Li's formula hadn't expected. The cracks became full-fledged canyons in 2008—when ruptures in the financial system's foundation swallowed up trillions of dollars and put the survival of the global banking system in serious peril... Li's Gaussian copula formula will go down in history as instrumental in causing the unfathomable losses that brought the world financial system to its knees."As financial assets became more and more complex, and harder and harder to value, investors were reassured by the fact that both the international bond rating agencies and bank regulators, who came to rely on them, accepted as valid some complex mathematical models which theoretically showed the risks were much smaller than they actually proved to be in practice [81]. George Soros commented that "The super-boom got out of hand when the new products became so complicated that the authorities could no longer calculate the risks and started relying on the risk management methods of the banks themselves. Similarly, the rating agencies relied on the information provided by the originators of synthetic products. It was a shocking abdication of responsibility." [82]Certain financial innovation may also have the effect of circumventing regulations, such as off-balance sheet financing that affects the leverage or capital cushion reported by major banks. For example, Martin Wolf wrote in June 2009: "...an enormous part of what banks did in the early part of this decade – theoff-balance-sheet vehicles, the derivatives and the 'shadow banking system' itself – was to find a way round regulation."[83][edit] Boom and collapse of the shadow banking systemIn a June 2008 speech, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, then President and CEO of the NY Federal Reserve Bank, placed significant blame for the freezing of credit markets on a "run" on the entities in the "parallel" banking system, also called the shadow banking system. These entities became critical to the credit markets underpinning the financial system, but were not subject to the same regulatory controls. Further, these entities were vulnerable because they borrowed short-term in liquid markets to purchase long-term, illiquid and risky assets. This meant that disruptions in credit markets would make them subject to rapid deleveraging, selling their long-term assets at depressed prices. He described the significance of these entities: "In early 2007, asset-backed commercial paper conduits, in structured investment vehicles, in auction-rate preferred securities, tender option bonds and variable rate demand notes, had a combined asset size of roughly $2.2 trillion. Assets financed overnight in triparty repo grew to $2.5 trillion. Assets held in hedge funds grew to roughly $1.8 trillion. The combined balance sheets of the then five major investment banks totaled $4 trillion. In comparison, the total assets of the top five bank holding companies in the United States at that point were just over $6 trillion, and total assets of the entire banking system were about $10 trillion." He stated that the "combined effect of these factors was a financial system vulnerable to self-reinforcing asset price and credit cycles."[12]2007 bank run on Northern Rock, a UK bankOne of the first victims was Northern Rock, a medium-sized British bank.[98] The highly leveraged nature of its business led the bank to request security from the Bank of England. This in turn led to investor panic and a bank run in mid-September 2007. Calls by Liberal Democrat Shadow Chancellor Vince Cable to nationalise the institution were initially ignored; in February 2008, however, the British government (having failed to find a private sector buyer) relented, and the bank was taken into public hands. Northern Rock's problems proved to be an early indication of the troubles that would soon befall other banks and financial institutions.Initially the companies affected were those directly involved in home construction and mortgage lending such as Northern Rock and Countrywide Financial, as they could no longer obtain financing through the credit markets. Over 100 mortgage lenders went bankrupt during 2007 and 2008. Concerns that investment bank Bear Stearns would collapse in March 2008 resulted in its fire-sale to JP Morgan Chase. The crisis hit its peak in September and October 2008. Several major institutions either failed, were acquired under duress, or were subject to government takeover. These included Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and AIG.[99]See also: Federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac[edit] Credit markets and the shadow banking systemTED spread and components during 2008During September 2008, the crisis hits its most critical stage. There was the equivalent of a bank run on the money market mutual funds, which frequently invest in commercial paper issued by corporations to fund their operations and payrolls. Withdrawal from money markets were $144.5 billion during one week, versus $7.1 billion the week prior. This interrupted the ability of corporations to rollover (replace) their short-term debt. The U.S. government responded by extending insurance for money market accounts analogous to bank deposit insurance via a temporary guarantee[100] and with Federal Reserve programs to purchase commercial paper. The TED spread, an indicator of perceived credit risk in the general economy, spiked up in July 2007, remained volatile for a year, then spiked even higher in September 2008,[101] reaching a record 4.65% on October 10, 2008.In a dramatic meeting on September 18, 2008 Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke met with key legislators to propose a $700 billion emergency bailout. Bernanke reportedly tells them: "If we don't do this, we may not have an economy on Monday."[102] The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act also called the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) is signed into law on October 3, 2008.[103]Economist Paul Krugman and U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner explain the credit crisis via the implosion of the shadow banking system, which had grown to nearly equal the importance of the traditional commercial banking sector as described above. Without the ability to obtain investor funds in exchange for most types of mortgage-backed securities or asset-backed commercial paper, investment banks and other entities in the shadow banking system could not provide funds to mortgage firms and other corporations.[12][58]This meant that nearly one-third of the U.S. lending mechanism was frozen and continued to be frozen into June 2009.[104] According to the Brookings Institution, the traditional banking system does not have the capital to close this gap as of June 2009: "It would take a number of years of strong profits to generate sufficient capital to support that additional lending volume." The authors also indicate that some forms of securitization are "likely to vanish forever, having been an artifact of excessively loose credit conditions." While traditional banks have raised their lending standards, it was the collapse of the shadow banking system that is the primary cause of the reduction in funds available for borrowing.[105][edit] Wealth effectsThere is a direct relationship between declines in wealth, and declines in consumption and business investment, which along with government spending represent the economic engine. Between June 2007 and November 2008, Americans lost an estimated average of more than a quarter of their collective net worth. By early November 2008, a broad U.S. stock index the S&P 500, was down 45 percent from its 2007 high. Housing prices had dropped 20% from their 2006 peak, with futures markets signaling a30-35% potential drop. Total home equity in the United States, which was valued at $13 trillion at its peak in 2006, had dropped to $8.8 trillion by mid-2008 and was still falling in late 2008. Total retirement assets, Americans' second-largest household asset, dropped by 22 percent, from $10.3 trillion in 2006 to $8 trillion in mid-2008. During the same period, savings and investment assets (apart from retirement savings) lost $1.2 trillion and pension assets lost $1.3 trillion. Taken together, these losses total a staggering $8.3 trillion.[106]Further, U.S. homeowners had extracted significant equity in their homes in the years leading up to the crisis, which they could no longer do once housing prices collapsed. Free cash used by consumers from home equity extraction doubled from $627 billion in 2001 to $1,428 billion in 2005 as the housing bubble built, a total of nearly $5 trillion over the period.[16][107][108] U.S. home mortgage debt relative to GDP increased from an average of 46% during the 1990s to 73% during 2008, reaching $10.5 trillion.[109]To offset this decline in consumption and lending capacity, the U.S. government and U.S. Federal Reserve have committed $13.9 trillion, of which $6.8 trillion has been invested or spent, as of June 2009.[110] In effect, the Fed has gone from being the "lender of last resort" to the "lender of only resort" for a significant portion of the economy. In some cases the Fed can now be considered the "buyer of last resort."The New York City headquarters of Lehman Brothers.Economist Dean Baker explained the reduction in the availability of credit this way:"Yes, consumers and businesses can't get credit as easily as they could a year ago. There is a really good reason for tighter credit. Tens of millions of homeowners who had substantial equity in their homes two years ago have little or nothing today. Businesses are facing the worst downturn since the Great Depression. This matters for credit decisions. A homeowner with equity in her home is very unlikely to default on a car loan or credit card debt. They will draw on this equity rather than lose their car and/or have a default placed on their credit record. On the other hand, a homeowner who has no equity is a serious default risk. In the case of businesses, their creditworthiness depends on their future profits. Profit prospects look much worse in November 2008 than they did in November 2007 (of course, to clear-eyed analysts, they didn't look too good a year ago either). While many banks are obviously at the brink, consumers and businesses would be facing a much harder time getting credit right now even if the financial system were rock solid. The problem with the economy is the loss of close to $6 trillion in housing wealth and an even larger amount of stock wealth. Economists, economic policy makers and economic reporters virtually all missed the housing bubble on the way up. If they still can't notice its impact as the collapse of the bubble throws into the worst recession in the post-war era, then they are in the wrong profession."[111]At the heart of the portfolios of many of these institutions were investments whose assets had been derived from bundled home mortgages. Exposure to these mortgage-backed securities, or to the credit derivatives used to insure them against failure, caused the collapse or takeover of several key firms such as Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merrill Lynch, and HBOS.[112][113][114][edit] Global contagionThe crisis rapidly developed and spread into a global economic shock, resulting in a number of European bank failures, declines in various stock indexes, and large reductions in the market value of equities[115] and commodities.[116] Moreover, the de-leveraging of financial institutions, as assets were sold to pay back obligations that could not be refinanced in frozen credit markets, further accelerated the liquidity crisis and caused a decrease in international trade.World political leaders, national ministers of finance and central bank directors coordinated theirefforts[117] to reduce fears, but the crisis continued. At the end of October 2008 a currency crisis developed, with investors transferring vast capital resources into stronger currencies such as the yen, the dollar and the Swiss franc, leading many emergent economies to seek aid from the International Monetary Fund.[118][119][edit] Effects on the global economy[edit] Official economic projectionsOn November 3, 2008, the EU-commission at Brussels predicted for 2009 an extremely weak growth of GDP, by 0.1 percent, for the countries of the Euro zone (France, Germany, Italy, etc.) and even negative number for the UK (-1.0 percent), Ireland and Spain. On November 6, the IMF at Washington, D.C., launched numbers predicting a worldwide recession by -0.3 percent for 2009, averaged over the developed economies. On the same day, the Bank of England and the Central Bank for the Euro zone, respectively, reduced their interest rates from 4.5 percent down to three percent, and from 3.75 percent down to 3.25 percent. Economically, mainly the car industry seems to be involved. As a consequence, starting from November 2008, several countries launched large "help packages" for their economies.The U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee release in June 2009 stated: "...the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability."[136] Economic projections from the Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank Presidents include a return to typical growth levels (GDP) of 2-3% in 2010; an unemployment plateau in 2009 and 2010 around 10% with moderation in 2011; and inflation that remains at typical levels around 1-2%.[137][edit] Responses to financial crisis[edit] Emergency and short-term responsesMain article: Subprime mortgage crisis#ResponsesThe U.S. Federal Reserve and central banks around the world have taken steps to expand money supplies to avoid the risk of a deflationary spiral, in which lower wages and higher unemployment lead to aself-reinforcing decline in global consumption. In addition, governments have enacted large fiscal stimulus packages, by borrowing and spending to offset the reduction in private sector demand caused by the crisis. The U.S. executed two stimulus packages, totaling nearly $1 trillion during 2008 and 2009.[138] This credit freeze brought the global financial system to the brink of collapse. The response of the USA Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other central banks was immediate and dramatic. During the last quarter of 2008, these central banks purchased US$2.5 trillion of government debt and troubled private assets from banks. This was the largest liquidity injection into the credit market, and the largest monetary policy action, in world history. The governments of European nations and the USA also raised the capital of their national banking systems by $1.5 trillion, by purchasing newly issued preferred stock in their major banks.[99]Governments have also bailed-out a variety of firms as discussed above, incurring large financial obligations. To date, various U.S. government agencies have committed or spent trillions of dollars in loans, asset purchases, guarantees, and direct spending. For a summary of U.S. government financial commitments and investments related to the crisis, see CNN - Bailout Scorecard.。
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Speculators Take Actions When…
Financial markets are ruled by humans emotional reactions than using logical calculation! When a developing country starts to financially liberalize before its institutions or knowledge base is prepared, it opens itself to the possibility of shocks and instability with inflows and outflows of funds!
Events in 97
Events in 98
Events in 98
Causes
Deteriorating（不断恶化的） economic conditions Moral （道德）Hazards （危害）by banks and corporations（企业） Too much inflow（流入） of foreign funds Stock market and Real Estate（房地产） Bubble Lack of regulatory （监管）control on funds Massive disinvestment（撤资）
Speculation?
Who are speculators（投机者）?
Large International financial institutions, banks and fund managers attacking central banks
Why?
They short sale（卖空） currencies and make the
How Did Speculators Take Advantage of Asian Markets?
全身的状况。
亚洲国 家
美国
因素
新中国成立预示着社会主义阵营
的建立。美国，，有了危机感。
他通过强大的经济后盾在亚太地
区建立起一个资本主义的统一战
线：韩国，日本，台湾直至东南
亚，都成为美国的经济附庸。这
给亚洲一些国家飞速发展带来了
经济支持。
金融大鳄 一只假寐的老狼 个人价值观趋向 资本主义国家的默许
乔治索 罗斯
国内学 直者接分触析发因素 内在基础性因
素 世界经因素
equilibrium
由于国际方面的信贷繁荣和当局放宽对外国资本流入，导致外资流入增 加。 通常情况下，资金会找到自己的方式，无论是实体经济的贷款给企 业或的非生产性股票和房地产市场。 不幸的是，在这段时间的资金流入 股市和房地产市场朝向。 下表显示了在1997年给予的贷款，物业部门和 不良贷款的百分比。
由于在出口的蓬勃发展，有必要的资金，以资助其 出口行业和其他经济活动的增加。 当时全球金融市 场的开放，对外部资金的来源提供了一个完美的途 径。 然而，最终这些借款将扩大的经常账户赤字。
当一个国家的经常账户赤字扩大，加上出口下降， 由于外国资金的流入，货币高估，它会吸引货币投 机者的关注。受影响rev的ers经e flo济w o体f fu政nds府’ 将试图捍卫其货 币，无论是通过提高利率或使用其外汇储备货币撑 起。 当他们提高利率，最终将带来银行业由于增加 国外借贷成本。 最终会有“逆转资金流动”-从外国 资金流入到流出。 有了这样的资金流出，将导致信 贷紧缩，加上高利率，它最终将影响房地产和银行
central bank run out of foreign reserves. This breaks the equilibrium（平衡） among currencies.
George Soros
Soros Fund Management (est. 1969) Advises Quantum Group of Funds（量子基金集团） “the Man Who Broke the Bank of England” Blamed for sharp devaluation of southeastern currencies If you had invested $1k in 1969, you would have $1 mil 25 years later (32% growth/yr.) In July of 1997, Soros Fund Profits doubled!
Asian Financial Crisis
目录
一.Asian financial crisis 1997 – 98 1.数据 2.概况 3.原因 4.影响
二.投机者-索罗斯 三.IMF的角色 四.经验教训
1997 亚洲金融风暴概况之 危机原因
新马泰日韩等国都 为外向型经济的国 家。他们对世界市 场的依附很大。亚 洲经济的动摇难免 会出现牵一发而动
业。
国际收支危机和银行危机之间的关系更是明显，时下，由于金融业 的全球化。 下表显示了银行之间的危机和国际收支的频率。
从上面的表中可以看出，在1980年之前发生的危机更偏于收支平 衡。 29个危机的总额出只有3个是银行业危机。 然而，自20世纪 80年代以来，银行业金融机构总危机上升到23， 73。 因此，我们 可以推断出，现今的金融危机可能会由结算付款和银行的关系引 起。
可以看出，从上述四国受影响最严重的危机也配合他们的尊重银行业的不良贷款率最高 。
金融危机对这些国家各自的国内生产总值增长的效果。
财政失衡是指付款余额为负值，一国偿还其债务的能力之间的差异。
资料来源：国际货币基金组织 上表显示出口和经常项目的恶化。 该表显示，而经常项目赤字居高不下，出口国 的同时经历了在其出口收入下滑。 在韩国和泰国，其出口增长最少，分别只有3.7 和0.5％。 与此相比的30.3和23.1％，分别较上年同期。 因此，这代表了减少出口 持续高经常账户赤字财政失衡。 换句话说，最终出口收入将不足以支付其经常账 户赤字。